Does the Ulez expansion put outer London seats in play?

A lot of political pundits are in shock today, as the Tories held onto Uxbridge and South Ruislip in yesterday's by-election. Opinion polls last week had put Labour 8 points ahead in that seat.

Everyone is blaming Labour mayor Sadiq Khan's expansion of Ulez (Ultra Low Emission Zone), which would have heaped costs on motorists.

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As you can see from the map, Khan is planning a very big expansion of Ulez.

There will be a general election next year, as well as the London mayor elections. A lot of seats will come into play.

There are 73 seats in London, and this is how they voted in 2019:

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As you can see by eyeballing the map, there are a lot of Labour seats which will get caught up in the Ulez expansion. If the Tories have any sense, they'll hold the general election on the same date as the London mayoral election, and campaign hard on this issue. It goes against the grain to think the Conservatives could gain seats in London, but there are no tribal areas anywhere anymore; every seat in the country has become a marginal.