RE: LeoThread 2025-03-17 17:04
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This is one of the brightest minds in AI:
AI that can match humans at any task will be here in five to 10 years, Google DeepMind CEO says
Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis said he thinks artificial general intelligence, or AGI, will emerge in the next five or 10 years.
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That's pretty realistic.
Yeah, that sounds about right.
I saw people saying it'll be here in less than 2 years, and some saying it's already here, but 5-10 sounds more realistic to me.
On the other side, there are people saying AI will never become that good. Well, I'm fine either way. It's already at a level I'm comfortable with, if it got better, I benefit. If it didn't, I'm okay with what we have.
The problem I have with these discussions is the vagueness in the definition. Ask 100 people what would constitute AGI and you will get dozens of different answers.
My view is the AI will be far more advanced in 2 years than it is today. Is that AGi? Really who cares...nothing more than semantics at that point.
AGI wouldn't be that scary if it can just match humans lol. But I guess it wouldn't take more than half a decade after that for AGI to surpass humans, at least on average.
Unfortunately, forecasting is an exercise in being least wrong. It is impossible to tell; even more so when the levels are not clearly defined.
So your thesis is credible, as much as any other.