RE: LeoThread 2026-01-14 19-48

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Ecosystems take decades to grow and can be destroyed in an instant



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Analysis of California’s “One-Time” Billionaire Tax — it’s worse than it appears

📉 Will it pass? Likely yes

It needs just 50%+1 voter approval. SEIU + CTA have done this before—Prop 55 won 63% in 2016

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⚖️ Will it get tied up in litigation?

Almost certainly. A retroactive wealth tax of a type CA has never had would raise due process challenges. Wealthy taxpayers have the legal budgets for years of fights

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👋 This is clearly only the start. The goal is an annual tax, not a one-time levy, and the target is $25M–$50M net worth households, including illiquid holdings like early-stage founders pre-Series B

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The “one-time” framing is strategic, not final

The same coalition already has AB 259 drafted—an annual 1% wealth tax at a $50M threshold, with plans to lower to $25M. It’s been introduced three years running

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Removing the constitutional barrier with a one-time tax would make an annual version a much easier ballot measure

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🔃 CA Policy Center warned: “If SEIU hopes to keep Medi‑Cal spending growing, it may need to place repeated wealth taxes on the ballot—potentially lowering the threshold as billionaires flee”

The real risk for founders:

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At $1B, about 200 people would be taxed. At $50M, roughly 23,000 households would be affected—including many successful founders on paper before any liquidity event

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The rational move may be to relocate or avoid incorporating in CA before approaching those thresholds

✈️ Net-net: relocating before the Series B could make sense

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As one prominent investor put it: “Even people who don’t expect this initiative to pass are still planning to leave because there will be another one”

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The one-time tax is a constitutional Trojan horse; the annual tax—at a much lower threshold—is already waiting inside