SPS Market Analysis Sep 26 – Oct 2 2025 | Splinterlands #479

This week in crypto markets, Bitcoin and Ether swung sharply in response to fresh inflation figures, jobs data, and mounting concerns over Federal Reserve policy. The beginning of the week was dominated by the bears, but since uptober started, there is renewed optimis,m especially as weaker payroll numbers fuelled hopes for rate cuts, lifting risk assets across the crypto markets.

Beyond price action, key legislation like the Genius Act and Clarity Act remain in the spotlight, as banks, crypto firms, and lawmakers clash over stablecoin rewards, market structure, and the balance between innovation and consumer protection. Industry leaders stress that regulatory clarity will unlock further institutional adoption and participation, which should translate into capital flows into the crypto ecosystem.

At the same time, the rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) and corporate crypto treasuries highlights a new wave of institutionalization. This week saw public firms announcing billion-dollar holdings in Solana and Avalanche. This shift underscores the growing convergence between traditional finance and blockchain-powered models, which has been popularized by Michael Saylor's Micro Strategy.

Looking forward, the macro trends will continue to drive short-term volatility, and corporate treasuries are cementing crypto's role in global capital markets. The signals all point to a market Q4 bull and alt season phase.

SPS Weekly Performance Overview

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SPS posted a 4.9% gain over seven days, climbing from $0.00755 to $0.00771. The 24-hour data confirms that SPS is trading in a tight range between $0.00749 and $0.00781, with current liquidity at just $38K. Market cap increased from $3.59M to $3.68M, tracking the price recovery but not breaking any structural trends.

Focusing on the price action over the week, the $0.0073-0.0075 support zone proved resilient this week. September 30th's close at $0.00735 represented the critical test, which served as a foundation for the subsequent bounce. This support zone matters because it represents the late September accumulation area where the price consolidated before. Breaking below $0.0073 would likely trigger selling toward $0.0070, with the next major support around $0.0068 based on prior structure.

Resistance formed a clear ceiling at $0.0077-0.0078. This zone represents the breakdown area from September 24-25 where SPS lost structural support. The resistance at $0.0078 is now the line in the sand. A decisive close above this level with expanding volume would shift short-term momentum bullish and open the door to $0.0081-0.0082. Until then, this bounce should be treated as corrective rather than the start of a new uptrend.

Market Analysis -- Trends

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Further news was announced with Crypto Gaming Recovery Fund will cover seven additional dead Web3 games. The SPS DAO allocated over 1.3 million CGRF shares for distribution across Stella Fantasy, Embersword, Shatterline, Nyan Heroes, Deadrop, Synergy of Serra, and Chains of War. This expands the fund's reach beyond the initial three games (Pirate Nation, Tokyo Beast, Walking Dead Empires). Each game receives specific allocations with per-wallet limits ranging from 100 to 300 shares depending on the project size.

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All seven newly added games shut down in 2024-2025 due to funding challenges and GameFi market difficulties. Ember Sword raised millions before closing in May 2025. Nyan Heroes ceased operations despite impressive early player numbers. Deadrop's creator studio Midnight Society shut down in early 2025. While competitors struggle or fade, splinterlands is actively building a long-term sustainable place for gamers displaced to join and thrive.

Market Analysis -- Volumes & Liquidity

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Trading volumes declined throughout the week despite the price bounce, revealing a lack of strong conviction behind the move. The volume profile shows most activity occurred during consolidation and support tests rather than the bounce itself. Average daily volume for the week was approximately $32k, which is down from the prior week's $43k average. This 23% decline in average volume alongside a 5% price gain is a bearish divergence that typically resolves with price following volume lower.

Concluding Thoughts

SPS delivered a 4.9% bounce this week, but the technical evidence (declining volume, weak resistance test, and continued pattern of lower highs) suggests it is a corrective move within an ongoing downtrend rather than a reversal. The Recovery Fund represents an interesting approach to positioning itself as a stable refuge for displaced Web3 gaming communities. If executed well, this could drive adoption that matters and bring new players into the ecosystem.

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