SPS Market Analysis Nov 28 – Dec 4 2025 | Splinterlands #495
SPS closed the week at $0.00650249, up a 0.8% from the Nov 28 open. The range between $0.00620 support and $0.00680 resistance is now entering week four, and honestly? I'm tired of writing the same analysis. Price bounced exactly where it's supposed to, and rejected exactly where it always does. The chart structure hasn't changed, and we're stuck here watching paint dry.
Macro context matters here.
Bitcoin closed the week at $92K and ETH at $3165. The broader crypto market spent the week consolidating after that early December drawdown. Macro data came in weaker with labor readings increased expectations for a December rate cut, which helped BTC reclaim the $92k zone after briefly dipping into the mid-80s earlier in the month. The institutional adoption narrative is still playing out in the background. Vanguard reversed its long-standing anti-crypto stance this week and enabled trading for most third-party crypto ETFs on its brokerage platform. Bank of America started recommending 1-4% digital asset allocations for select Merrill clients. MicroStrategy added more Bitcoin and they're now holding roughly 650000 BTC. Michael Saylor keeps saying the four-year halving cycle is dead, that institutional credit and custody rules now drive Bitcoin's trajectory instead of crypto mining dynamics.
The CFTC approved the first listed spot crypto products on registered futures exchanges which offers leveraged retail spot trading under direct oversight. At the state level, Connecticut issued cease-and-desist orders to Robinhood, Crypto.com, and Kalshi for unlicensed wagering products. All of this is positive long-term. Also, the prediction market and tokenization themes are gaining traction with Kalshi launched tokenized prediction markets on Solana, and Grayscale is pushing LINK as infrastructure for real-world assets.
Here's what the SPS chart is actually telling us.
Support at $0.00620 is rock solid. I've drawn this line on the chart for weeks now, and it keeps holding. Price has touched it multiple times since Nov 21, bounced every single time, until this breaks, the floor is reliable. Resistance at $0.00680 is equally solid. This horizontal level has capped every rally attempt for three weeks straight. And the downward-sloping trendline makes it even worse as the SPS price is now fighting two layers of resistance simultaneously.
The compression is tightening. Look at the 1-hour chart. Lower highs. Higher lows. The range is narrowing under that descending trendline, and something has to give soon. Either buyers finally break through, or support fails, and we drop to $0.00600 or lower. Right now, the trend is still down. As long as SPS remains under that trendline, the bias is bearish despite the range structure.
Most days this week, the volume averaged $18k-$21k, with the Dec 2 spike to $36k encouraging. Also, market cap crept up from $3.20M to $3.29M, which is technically positive, but a 3% increase in market cap doesn't mean anything when price is still trapped under resistance. We need sustained buying pressure.
Splinterlands-specific news didn't move the needle either.
The new Land Card Edition dropped this week. The cards introduce new mechanics, Cinder resource from burning cards. The goal is deflationary: reduce supply, raise floor prices, create long-term value. This is exciting for land players, with the immediate effect is burning cards and resources, which theoretically helps the broader ecosystem. The long-term effect? Land becomes more efficient at producing resources, which could offset the initial burn and lead to oversupply again. The sad thing is that SPS price didn't react to the Land Card being released. The news dropped and price kept doing what it's been doing, grinding sideways inside this range.
So, what happens next for SPS?
I don't know. That's the honest answer. Technical setups like this can resolve in either direction, and there's no way to predict which side breaks first. But I can tell you what I'm watching.
- Bearish scenario: If support at $0.00620 fails, the next logical target is $0.00600. There's no strong level between those two zones, so the drop would probably be quick. Below $0.00600, things get uglier as we'd be revisiting lows from earlier this year.
- Bullish scenario: If price breaks above $0.00680 and the descending trendline, that would be the first real bullish signal in weeks. A clean break with volume would open the door to $0.00720-$0.00750, where the next resistance cluster sits.
Bottom line
$0.00620 support is holding, but $0.00680 resistance is blocking any upside. The descending trendline makes the setup even worse with volume weak except for isolated spikes that fade immediately. And Splinterlands news, while interesting for the game's long-term economy, isn't moving the token price. That's it. Same range. Same resistance. Same support.
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