SPS Market Analysis Nov 14 – Nov 20 2025 | Splinterlands #492

Do you know that feeling when you are watching a slow leak? Not panic-inducing. Just a steady drip. That is pretty much what SPS did this week. The token the week at $0.00634, down from $0.00666 the week prior. That is roughly a 4.9% decline over seven days. Nothing catastrophic on its own, when compared to the wider crypto market.

The SPS Numbers Tell the Story

Let us walk through what actually happened:

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Market cap drifted from $3.31M down to $3.13M. Volume stayed stubbornly low the entire week, ranging between $20k and $36k daily.

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Looking at the hourly chart, the picture is straightforward. Price hit resistance around $0.00688--$0.00690 multiple times and got rejected each time. Long upper wicks on those candles show sellers defending that zone aggressively. Meanwhile, support at $0.00629--$0.00632 has been tested repeatedly. The bounces from support? Weak. The trend is a textbook downtrend: lower highs, lower lows, rallies capping out early. There is no sign of a reversal pattern forming yet. Price ended the week sitting right on support, which is not exactly a vote of confidence. Closing on support means the next test could be the one that breaks it. If $0.00629 fails, the next liquidity pocket sits around $0.00620, maybe $0.00615 if selling pressure accelerates. The only realistic path to recovery? A clean break above $0.00650 with volume behind it. Reclaiming the $0.00688 resistance zone would be a stronger confirmation, but that feels like dreaming without a catalyst.

The Macro Backdrop Is not Helping

Here is where we zoom out and ask: is this just an SPS problem? Not entirely. The broader crypto market took a beating this past week. Bitcoin slid below $90K before stabilizing in the mid-$80Ks, and Ethereum dropped toward $2.7K. That is a 10%+ decline for both majors in about seven days. Two macro factors are driving the pain. First, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have faded. Inflation remains sticky, and that makes risk assets, crypto included, less attractive when safe yields are still competitive. Second, there is a more structural argument gaining traction. Tom Lee has been making the case that this downturn is not purely macro-driven. His thesis: market-making desks got wiped during sharp liquidation events (notably in October), leaving them with balance sheet holes. To patch those holes, they have been forced to shrink activity and sell assets, creating persistent downward pressure. If Lee's right, this is forced deleveraging rather than a fundamental collapse. For altcoins like SPS, this kind of environment is particularly rough. When liquidity tightens across the board, altcoins feel it first and feel it hardest.

There is also a regulatory angle worth noting. Kraken filed confidentially for a U.S. IPO this week, signalling confidence in a friendlier regulatory path ahead. Crypto firms are pointing to progress on stablecoin legislation and market structure discussions as potential tailwinds. None of that helps SPS in the immediate term, but it matters for the ecosystem's long-term health.

Splinterlands Land Cards

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On the game development front, the team announced the Inaugural Land Card Edition, which introduces Land-specific cards that cannot be used in Ranked, Brawls, or Tournaments. These function exclusively as Land workers and require a worker slot. They can also be placed on Mage Wagons for the upcoming Conflicts. The edition includes Common (Water), Rare (Earth), Epic (Life), and Legendary (Death) cards with abilities like Bountiful Grain, Dark Discount, Toil & Kin, and Labor's Luck. There is also a treasure-based foil discovery system with hidden Gold Foil, Black Foil, and Arcane variants. The team estimates this will burn significant resources: 2.3B Grain, 540M Wood, 90M Stone, 40M Iron, 95M Aura, and 142.5M Cinder.

This is important as more resource sinks matter in the long-term. They create deflationary pressure on in-game assets, which theoretically supports long-term token value. Whether these mechanics translate to SPS price appreciation depends on adoption and whether the broader market cooperates. Right now, market conditions are not cooperating.

The Bottom Line

SPS is trading at multi-week lows, sitting on support that has been tested too many times for comfort, with no volume suggesting buyers are ready to pump the token. The macro environment is challenging, and altcoins do not have the buffer to absorb these kinds of pressures easily. If you are long-term on splinterlands (and I know many of you are), this might be one of those difficult periods where you need to not react emotionally. The team continues to release new developments, and the ecosystem is not collapsing. But the market is telling us something, and ignoring price action entirely is just as foolish as panicking over it.

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