SPS Market Analysis July 18 – July 24 2025 | Splinterlands #459

Washington delivering what might be the most significant regulatory breakthrough in years in the crypto ecosystem. The GENIUS Act officially became law after President Trump signed the stablecoin regulation bill, following a bipartisan House vote of 308 to 122. This marks the first major standalone crypto regulation to pass in the U.S., establishing a federal framework for U.S. dollar-based stablecoins with clear consumer protections. According to McKinsey & Co, The stablecoin market, currently around $235 billion, will most likely continue to grow with the passing of the GENIUS Act.

Corporate adoption continues accelerating at breakneck pace. Trump Media announced acquiring around $2 billion in Bitcoin and related securities for its crypto treasury, making up about two-thirds of its liquid assets. Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon are teaming up to offer institutional investors access to tokenized money market funds, with major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Charles Schwab, and others all announcing stablecoin initiatives.

Bitcoin pushed above $119k during the week, while Ethereum rose to $3.7k at one point, climbing over 4% in sessions and advancing more than 19% for the week. Both and the rest of the market have corrected slightly with Solana bearing the worse of the altcoin majors. For the first time ever, daily inflows into Ether ETFs ($600 million) topped those of Bitcoin ETFs ($522 million). With the entire crypto ecosystem is showing serious momentum, let us unpack whether this momentum has spilled over into SPS.

SPS Weekly Performance Overview

Source

SPS closed the week at $0.007163, down approximately 4.9% over the seven-day period. Looking at the price data, SPS began the week around $0.00728 and experienced some volatility, briefly touching highs near $0.00757 on July 22nd before sellers took control in the latter half of the week. The token found itself in a tight trading range between $0.00729 and $0.00757 for most of the period, with the breakdown coming toward week's end as it closed below the $0.0072 support level. Market cap held relatively steady around $3.5-3.7 million throughout the week, but the price action suggests bears are testing the resolve of buyers at these levels.

Market Analysis -- Trends

The disconnect between SPS and the broader crypto market this week has been frustrating to watch. While Bitcoin pushed toward $119k and Ethereum rallied hard above $3.7k, SPS remained stuck in a tight trading range, seemingly immune to the broader altcoin momentum. This divergence isn't uncommon in crypto, but it's disappointing when see a game you love and enjoy so much not getting the recognition it deserves.

In 2021 NFT boom, splinterlands benefitted a lot from this FOMO cycle, but this time the narrative has shifted. At the moment, we are not seeing the SPS price appreciation people were anticipating and this does impact new people joining the ecosystem. Most Web 3.0 games that got attention, started with people talking about how much they were earning and that continued to drive the adoption. But, it also showed the downsides of that kind of model as you always needed new players to be joining and staying to sustain the ecosystem.

Market Analysis -- Volumes & Liquidity

Daily trading volumes for SPS averaged around $140k this week, with some days seeing spikes to $171k. Looking at the volume bars in the chart, the steady but unspectacular volume pattern aligns with the sideways price action we've been seeing. In previous articles, I wrongly assumed that Bitcoin and Ethereum's price increase would translate to price increase in SPS, but this is not happening. It's clear that SPS needs some external catalyst to drive meaningful volume and liquidity increase.

Market Analysis -- Support & Resistance

Technically, SPS is testing some critical levels right now. The $0.0072 level that we closed near is acting as immediate support, but it's looking shaky given the recent breakdown. If this level fails, the next meaningful support sits around $0.0065-0.0068, which would represent a move back to early 2025 lows.

On the upside, resistance is clearly defined at $0.0076-0.0078, which has been tested multiple times over the past few weeks without a clean break. Above that, the $0.008 level becomes the next target, followed by $0.0085. The real test would be a move back above $0.009, which represents the highs from earlier this year during the Conclave Arcana edition launch period.

The chart structure suggests we're in a descending triangle pattern, with lower highs and relatively flat support around current levels. This is typically a bearish continuation pattern, which means we could be setting up for a break lower unless some fundamental catalyst emerges. A clean break above $0.008 would invalidate this bearish setup and potentially target the $0.009-0.01 zone.

Concluding Thoughts

This week reinforced both the promise and frustration of holding SPS in the current crypto market environment. While the broader crypto market continues its institutional adoption story with regulatory wins and corporate treasury accumulation, SPS remains trapped in its range bound pattern, seemingly disconnected from the rest of the crypto ecosystem. The SPS support levels are holding for now, but the price action suggests we're at a critical point. If there isn't a catalyst, we could be looking at a test of much lower levels in the coming weeks and months.

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