Introducing PredictIt | Trade on Outcomes, Win Massive Rewards
PredictIt is something that we have worked on since before ACE even went live. This is one of the first major use cases we designed for ACE from the very beginning (hence the name). ACE is a programmatic stablecoin that is currently available in presale on TribalDEX and on all Hive-Engine interfaces at a discount with incredible benefits for early buyers learn more about ACE.
PredictIt offers a landscape to predict outcomes and trade those outcomes in a way that is decentralized and onchain. We take pride in building things onchain because this is the true ethos of the entire LEO Economy which we aim to contribute to for the many decades to come.
This blog post will introduce the key concepts of ACE Predict but will not be a full deep dive on it. We want you to go to https://leostrategy.io/predict and use it yourself!
The Predict Documentation is also extremely thorough and can help answer any detailed questions you have about how the system works.
PredictIt | Trade on Outcomes, Win Massive Rewards
ACE Predict allows you to trade on any outcome. At launch, outcomes are binary (yes/no, high/low, etc.). On our Roadmap, we will be adding more outcomes including live markets that close in minutes + have as many as 20 potential outcomes. Our roadmap for this is extensive as we believe it will be one of the most important apps we've ever built.
At launch, we've seeded 8 markets with liquidity. These 8 markets are 100% live and tradable right now.
Users can also Request a Market - if you request a market and it is accepted by the admin (LeoStrategy), you will earn 20% of all resolution fees of that market. So if the market trades with any sizable volume, 20% of the fees will be sent to you. The other 80% is utilized by LeoStrategy to purchase LEO and perma-stake it on our balance sheet.
We've built a system that works similarly to Polymarket which is the #1 prediction market on the planet. It uses a CLOB setup.
In TLDR; terms, it uses an order book approach for prediction markets. Markets are entirely user-driven.
Buy Yes or Buy No to drive the % of the outcome. As the market moves toward resolution, the outcome changes based on user behavior (what X users are willing to pay for Yes or No outcomes).
The 8 markets we've started with cover sports to politics to LEO to Hive to Bitcoin to pop culture. As Predict grows, we will continually add more markets. You can also Request a Market using the Request button on the /predict page and earn 20% of all the fee income for the markets you create. This creates deep incentives to launch and propagate your own markets.
Commenting and Rewards
One of our team members came up with a fascinating idea: what if Prediction markets were living as a blog post on the Hive blockchain?
Then, the stated resolution would live entirely onchain along with any key data about the market.
We then took it a step further: if we made the markets onchain, then we could actually turn them into "Threads-like" containers using a similar approach as INLEO.
Now, when you comment on https://LeoStrategy.io/predict, you actually are commenting on the Hive blockchain under the container post for that market. 100% beneficiary is sent to commentrewarder which means that whatever the container earns in terms of rewards is distributed amongst commenters who participate in the markets.
So not only are you trading outcomes, you are actually commenting on those markets onchain and earning rewards at the same time.
You can see all of the container posts on @predictit. When a new market is created, this account autonomously posts the market container.
When a market is resolved, it updates with a comment onchain (more below).
Onchain Resolutions
When a resolution occurs, it is based on the original resolution stated in the onchain post. Then, the oracle comments a proposed resolution underneath the post which is then approved by the Admin of the Predict market.
On our Roadmap, we've got a long-term solution which includes a bond-based admin approval: anyone will be able to create markets and resolve the outcome but it will require overbonding and being an oracle. This will allow multiple parties to help resolve markets while having "skin in the game". More on that later when the time comes.
For now, resolutions are autonomous from the oracle (price feeds, etc.) that dictate outcomes. Then a final stamp of approval on the proposed resolution is needed to distribute winnings.
As soon as a market is confirmed resolved, then the winners all split the ACE and the person who created the market gets 20% of the fee share.
Market Seeding
Market liquidity dictates the payout of any given market. It's a "what is someone willing to pay?" system which is exactly how Polymarket works. Dive into the order books and you will see how this works on an entirely P2P driven environment. When a new market is launched, we also seed some initial liquidity from our own bankroll. This helps drive early trading volume on new markets.
We have also created built-in market makers that seek to fairly connect buyer and seller orders. This generates a small fee while giving users the best fill-rates. The fee is used to purchase and perma-stake LEO.
Deposit and Predict Anything with HIVE, HBD or ACE
You can deposit HIVE, HBD or ACE to trade outcomes on PredictIt. All outcomes resolve as ACE. Withdrawals are ACE-only which can be sold on the open market or staked for 10% APR (paid weekly) on Hive-Engine or Base. There is no deposit fee.
Roadmap
The immediate next item on our Roadmap is to launch ACE on Base + launch the Prediction market on Base.
Right now, the Predict market is for Hive users-only but you can connect with your Base wallet.
You'll notice all the wiring in place to support Base users but we have not yet launched ACE on Base. The launch of the predict market for Base will coincide with ACE launching on Base and the presale extending to Uniswap.
There is no single great predict market (especially none onchain) on the Base blockchain. LeoStrategy will be first to market with this. We have a comprehensive rollout plan to achieve this but the first step is to rollout to Hive and our existing userbase, grow the Markets and volume and improve the app. Then, roll to Base.
*Please note that PredictIt is in Open Beta. If you see anything that should be bug fixed or new features you'd like to request use the "Help" icon in the bottom right to report it directly to our team and we will have it live inside of a few hours!
How to Use PredictIt
Super easy!
- Go to https://leostrategy.io/predict
- Click Connect Wallet (Connect with Hive Keychain or any EVM wallet - EVM support coming soon)
- Claim some free ACE to get started or deposit and claim the limited time deposit bonus
- Start "Buying Yes" or "Buying No" on any outcomes you like
- Don't see the market you want? Create as many markets as your heart desires with the "Create a Market" button on the Markets page. You'll earn 20% of all PredictIt Resolution Fees on markets you launch
Limited Time ACE Deposit Bonus
Go to https://LeoStrategy.io/predict and you will find that there is a limited time deposit bonus. If you buy 10 ACE from the presale and deposit it into Predict, you will get +10 ACE added to your Predict balance (double your deposit).
Limited Time ACE Claim | First 50 Users ONLY
For a limited time, we also added a 5 ACE claim. You can go to the Predict market and claim 5 ACE to trade with. This ACE is "Trade ACE" that can only be used to trade on PredictIt markets. You cannot withdraw this ACE but you can withdraw winnings from Predict markets it is utilized in.
Go to https://leostrategy.io/predict and claim some free ACE to start trading with! Setup your own markets and earn fees as a Market Creator. Limited to the first 50 users. 6 have early birds already claimed since this blog post has been written.
Great idea! Turning prediction markets on-chain is very innovative. Do you think it will attract more users to the LEO ecosystem?
Yes.
@beggars is it similar to what u recently launched?
Lmao yeah. It looks basically like the same thing. Except the one I built lets people create markets using HIVE/HBD and supports all custom Hive Engine tokens, which allows communities to run their own markets. I also have markets that auto resolve for price and outcome for numerous sports. This appears to have something similar but only for prices.
This one also appears to make you use ACE instead of the approach I took where people are paid immediately in the designated market token (no deposit/withdrawal mechanism).
There are quite a lot of similarities, it's uncanny. Even right down to the use of a containerised post for the market. For Hivepredict I use Snaps by Peakd and let people comment which comments on the thread and Peakd has native support for market data embedding inside of the snap, you so get the market details without having to go to the site.
I will say where things differ is this appears to have adopted a shares approach instead of what I did which is a simple bet based approach instead of an order book. I originally was going to do Polymarket/Kalshi style shares approach, but without the liquidity and user numbers I don't think that approach works and taking a parimutuel approach where people put their stake into a pool (which has a time mechanic to prevent market sniping, etc) seems to work better.
Sadly Hive doesn't really have the active user numbers, liquidity and engagement right now. But just using a Hive Engine token might be different because it's more of an in-game type currency type of deal where my approach is more straightforward and transactional (with everything also done on the chain too).