RE: SURGE is the First Hive-Engine Product to Offer Limited Downside + Unlimited Upside and 19% Yield While You Wait
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I like SURGE and I own some SURGE.
I'm thinking through a particular scenario.
We read that
The conversion option allows you to convert 1 SURGE into 0.02 LSTR at any time (50 SURGE = 1 LSTR).
And
If you buy SURGE for $0.79 (current presale price), you are earning $0.15 for each $0.80 invested = ~19% effective yield.
Therefore, it is best to Buy SURG Now for the better effective yield, but Read On!
I think it would also be True that if you buy SURGE now, you can start to convert to LSTR at a profit once LSTR hits $40. Because at that price, 50 SURGE which you paid 80 cents each for, cost you $40 and is now (when LSTR is $40) worth $40.
So by buying SURGE NOW, you not only have a higher effective interest rate (19 vs 15 percent) while you wait for LSTR to pump, but you can also (if this is your desire) front run the crowd looking to convert SURGE to LSTR when it is profitable (and maybe then to USD).
IF the early presale buyers DO front run the late $1 per SURGE buyers, what might that do to SURGE and LSTR?
Well SURGE supply will drop as some of the supply gets converted (burned I guess), while LSTR supply rises? Or will the LSTR given from the conversion be from existing supply? This is probably discussed somewhere already but I don't remember seeing it.
Regardless of where the LSTR comes from for conversions, once conversions to LSTR are profitable for presale buyers, some percentage of those folks will sell their newly converted LSTR and take that profit. So does this SELL Pressure slow down the timeframe as to when LSTR hits $50 for everyone else to be in profit if the convert? Maybe.
So my conclusion is:
If you are going to Buy SURGE, there are several reasons to buy it NOW at 80 cents rather than $1 later. The higher effective interest rate has been stated many times, but I haven't seen folks talking about the ability to profitably convert at $40 instead of waiting on $50 LSTR. Maybe it has been noted, but I just didn't see it. :)
If you Are going to Buy SURGE, the only reason to Not buy now is if you think SURGE will sell under 80 cents in the future.
I would love to read anyone's thinking on why this might happen. If you do have such an opinion and decide to share why you hold it, please TAG ME so I can read what you write.
Thanks, and best wishes!
The conversions to LSTR will likely be spread out and there are a number of reasons for this
Many SURGE buyers are looking for downside protection and upside exposure in the long-run to LSTR while getting paid yield every week to HODL. This is the value proposition SURGE provides
Most conversions from SURGE to LSTR will happen later on. Why? Because many would rather HOLD the SURGE and get paid a dividend while LSTR rises. Afterall, they can convert to LSTR at any time. LSTR does not pay a dividend but SURGE does. Therefore, many will stick in SURGE even when LSTR is $100+
This effect allows conversions to take place at a variety of prices and timeframes because each user has unique needs. Majority of SURGE conversions will be when people want to cash out to fiat or some other crypto. That's totally fine and expected but its individual - not going to happen in droves
Thanks for sharing your thoughts!
I agree with the possible future you lay out here; there is a good chance it plays out like that. I would say that the fixed 15 cents yield per year on SURGE reduces in APR terms as SURGE surges past $1 which should happen as LSTR pumps past $50, so $100 LSTR means $2 SURGE means 7.5% and some folks may switch to HBD for 15%. But as you say, many will stay with SURGE because that should continue to rise as LSTR rises, whereas HBD is stable at $1.
I just bought more SURGE last night after I left my first comment. Go SURGE!!!!