Hidden Signals in the Jobs Data Alarming Economists

Imagine the US economy seems pretty solid on the surface, with unemployment holding steady at about 4.2 percent through late 2025. But dig a little deeper, and there's this one chart flying under most people's radar that's making some experts sweat. It's called the Beveridge curve, and right now, it's hinting that things might not stay calm for long.

Named after a British economist from way back, it basically maps out job openings against the number of people out of work. In a healthy market, when vacancies rise, unemployment drops like a seesaw. But lately, in the US, job postings have been dipping fast, even as unemployment hasn't budged much.

Neil Dutta, the head economist at Renaissance Macro Research in New York, pointed this out in a report he shared in December 2025. He showed how the current trend, marked in those teal dots on the graph, looks a lot like patterns before past slowdowns. If vacancies keep falling without unemployment rising right away, it could mean the job market's getting less efficient. Employers might struggle to find workers, or maybe demand is cooling off.

Dutta warns that this ups the risk of a recession, especially with other signs like a shrinking jobs-workers gap. Back in 2022, similar shifts led to worries, but we bounced back. Now, in early 2026, with inflation still lingering, this feels like a quiet alarm bell. It's not panic time yet, but it's a nudge to watch your own job security.

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