RE: LeoThread 2025-12-05 21-14

1. Top-down global macro framework

• Begins with the big picture: central bank policy, interest rates, currency regimes, inflation vs deflation, and growth vs recession regimes

• Constantly asks what the current economic regime is and what is already priced in

1. Liquidity is king

• Valuation is not used to time markets; liquidity is the primary timing tool

1. High conviction + extreme concentration

• Often allocates 20–30% (sometimes more) of a portfolio to a single idea when conviction is highest

1. Asymmetric risk/reward & aggressive sizing

• Seeks trades where upside is a multiple of the downside

1. Quick to admit when wrong (short holding periods when losing)

• Winning positions are typically held for years; losing positions are cut within weeks or months

1. Regime-change detection

• Focused on identifying when an old trend is ending and a new macro regime is beginning

1. No permanent ideology — pure pragmatism

• Has taken both long and short positions in the same asset at different times with equal conviction

Quoted principles

The most important factor is having the right liquidity framework and understanding the stage of the economic cycle
Earnings don't move the overall market; central bank actions and liquidity movements do

When a bubble forms, the response is to buy into the trend, adding fuel rather than avoiding it