RE: LeoThread 2026-03-13 02-37

The California Billionaire Tax has a negative NPV of -$24.7B, meaning if it reaches the ballot and is approved in November the state would not only collect less than promised but actually lose money.

The proposal originated with SEIU-UHW as a fix for healthcare funding that should have been addressed by state politicians cutting waste, fraud and abuse in the budget. That did not happen.

Now the state’s most reliable tax base is at risk: 71% of 100,000 modeled scenarios show a negative NPV, creating roughly a $24.7B shortfall that someone will have to cover.

With about 10 million middle-class California households, that amounts to roughly $2,500 per household—not paid by billionaires but by middle-class families.

Governor Gavin Newsom could have stopped this early but did not, reinforcing perceptions of ineffectiveness and outside influence. He now appears to be pursuing similar national ambitions. Buyer beware