The SNP's lead dwindles by 21% in the space of a year
A year ago, Nicola Sturgeon was First Minister of Scotland and the SNP enjoyed a 21 point lead (very remarkable as they had been in power for 15 years by then). Here is what the polling looks like now:
The real breakdown in their lead starts in Feb - March 2023. The gender self-ID issue caused some consternation and lost them about 5 points. But when Rishi Sunak blocked it, to the relief of most, the issue seemed dealt with.
Then came Nicola Sturgeon's shock resignation, a divisive SNP leadership contest, and then allegations that Sturgeon and her husband had used SNP party funds to buy a caravan.
I don't believe the caravan issue upset voters too much as no tax money was involved. (Voters took the attitude that if you were silly enough to donate to the SNP, you got what you deserved).
The leadership contest was another matter. Sturgeon had acquired a lot of left-leaning voters from 2015 onwards by pretending that the SNP was left-wing (through skilful use of language, not policy). But the leadership contest revealed half of the SNP to be right-wing, both economically and socially. The only thing that bound the party together was the quest for independence.
Many left-wing voters, who had liked Sturgeon but are not fussed about independence, are drifting back to Labour.
Labour is still not where it was before the 2014 Indy ref, but it should manage to win back seats in the central belt.