On the culture war issues, who do voters trust?
Here's an opinion poll on issues where people were asked whether they trust Starmer or Sunak:
Of the four issues, the ones that impact voters most are crime and anti-social behaviour, and illegal channel crossings (because people are now discovering migrants being housed in hotels in their town, with the more aggressive ones causing a nuisance). Though the press like to talk about trans people, the issue affects 0.1% of people, and climate change seems a long way off with the damp rainy summer we've had.
Sunak will be relieved that he's trusted more than Starmer on the small boats. Stopping the small boats was one of his five pledges.
He's having some mild success - crossings are down 17% compared to this time last year, see below:
However, Sunak really needs to tackle crime and anti-social behaviour, and force the police to respond to shop-lifting and other minor crime. People in leafy Tory areas are still well policed, but people in marginals areas are starting to notice things going wrong.
When it comes down to it, people vote based on their personal experience in their constituency rather than what they read in the news.