Conservatives are still struggling to break above 30%
...though they have ticked up a bit. Here is the polling detail:
Boris is now out of Parliament and out of Rishi Sunak's hair - so the situation of the last few months where Sunak made progress on something (Windsor Framework, announcing submarine deal with Australia, CPTPP, Australia deal coming into force) and every single time the Boris psychodrama reared it's head again and derailed him, is finally over. Now he needs the rest of the Tories to behave.
Of course voters don't really care about things like the Windsor Framework, CPTPP etc, they think it doesn't affect them (though it does).
In order to go above 30% Sunak needs to deliver on the thing voters care about most: inflation. And hope mortgage rates come down before the election, with the economy continuing to grow. And sort out the small boats/people trafficking mess on the south coast. And bring down overall net migration.
I guess he needs some luck.