This is a lesson I think many of us learned a few years back especially if you were here during the last two bull runs. The saying goes "Buy the hype, Sell the news" it goes by saying buy into all of the hype such as the recent ETF's that have been hyped up from a $25,000 BTC to a now $47,000 BTC and then sell on the news when it actully happens.

This is exactly what seems to have happened once again with bitcoin being down over 8% in a single day after the ETF has launched. This is mainly because everyone that wanted into bitcoin pretty much got into it outside of these now available methods.

This has cause as massive sell off that is triggering more to sell out which starts to spark fomo. After which time the market becomes "oversold" in most cases and quickly shoots back up.

It's most likely going to take some time for the markets to figure this one out. The current inflows of new market cap into bitcoin from these spot ETP (Exchange traded Products) form 11 total sources has only been millions and into a few billions compared to the overall 1.7 trillion dollar crypto market and the legit multi trillions locked up in 401k's and other funds that now have access to bitcoin.

China

The biggest player of them all over the last few years was China. From ban of miners, to banning bitcoin outright this country has set BTC prices up and down for years. However moving into the last few years the general market has expected this and the government of China no longer has the big sway it once did.

It's actully becoming more resilient verses governments and also verses headlines as headlines often sent shockwaves down the funnels of crypto. For the most part we are now over that and instead we are in the buy into the hype and sell the news scenarios.

The ETF Hype

All of 2023 was sprinkled with ETFs. That's about the only thing bitcoin and crypto had going for it and every time it got close to ETF approval it got delayed but the markets kept rebounding and rising higher based on the hype of a very possible ETF.

It only seemed natural that once it actully did happen that the price would have already been calculated in. Now what will be interesting is what we see towards the end of the month. Will we see bitcoin reverse course and start a slow and steady up climb? I mean in reality now anyone with a 401k and recurring investments could dump a percent of that 401k payment every other week into bitcoin with the spot ETF.

I mean if I was still working a job and matched 401k contributions you can be damn sure I would have been dumping at least some of it on bitcoins spot ETP [ ETF ].

The Halving

The upcoming halving is now a new area of focus and I bet it will spur some more hype and buying pressure. However like we have seen with the previous bitcoin halving's is that the price is always factored in a good 9 months for the halving before it even happens! Normally on the halving day we see a sell off but that sell off is then quickly realized a few weeks later of how little new BTC is hitting the open market creating a squeeze on the overall markets.

What will be interesting this time around is how much of a squeeze it is being that liquidity is already a bit of an issue. That halving is happening in under 100 days or just a little over 3 months away.

So there you have it a little thought process on the buy the hype, sell the news and how it's played out over the years. It's actully interesting to look back and see all the different plays that happened and then try to apply it to what's going on today. The markets are mainly emotion driven these days over anything else.

Posted Using InLeo Alpha