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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Wall Street Unplugged: Special Announcement.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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That's going on with David, it's March 2nd. Now, Frank, encourage us to the Wall Street Unplugged Podcast, where we break the headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. Today, I got a special announcement to make. Your long time listener, you might already know what's going on because today's usually Daniel Kreesh day. But I made big changes to this podcast. The first real change in 15 years. If you like Wall Street Unplugged, if you like listening to what I have to say each and every week, you find it valuable. The special announcement is just for you. As you might know, I've been hosting Wall Street Unplugged for over 15 years. Throughout my journey in the financial industry, working with my dad when I was a kid, my early days at thestreet.com, Stan's, my only way of launching my own business, the one constant has been Wall Street Unplugged, no matter what, no matter where I was, every single week without fail, I would share my insights with you through this podcast. (1/8)

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You might be saying, Frank, why? Every single week for 15 years, it's insane. It's pretty simple. It's because I love doing it and I hope it's been valuable to you. It's always been my goal at Curzio Research is create value to the people who are going to listen to me, subscribe to our services. I never saw myself as the CEO of a financial research company. I see myself as a person you trust. It's going to give you honest opinions, even if it's not popular, but always in a straightforward way that's going to help you make money and on that note, I'm making some changes to the business that I believe is going to create even more value for you, starting with Wall Street Unplugged. I've just launched a premium version of the podcast, Wall Street Unplugged Premium. The very first episode airs tonight. With Wall Street Unplugged Premium, I'm expanding the scope of the podcast. I'm adding new segments where I'll dive deeper into the most current news and debate the most pressing topics with (2/8)

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my cohost, Daniel Creech. I'll talk in detail about the week's short-term moves that could turn into long-term trends. I'll talk about the politics that matter to the market and likely your investments. And I'll talk about the specific names that keep coming up in the Wall Street chatter and by chatter, I mean CNBC, Fox Business News, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, and of course, Daniel and I are going to continue our regular market breakdowns, but with one big change. We'll be adding specific recommendations to the discussion that we'll track every week. So rest assured, Wall Street Unplugged, the regular versions, going to be streamable, still available, watchable online, exactly how it's always been. But this is important. Wall Street Unplugged Premium is members only. Let's talk about that. So what does that mean for you? If you're interested in this content, it's brand new, including our specific investment recommendations, like the one we're recommending today, Wall Street (3/8)

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Unplugged Premium, our first podcast, Wall Street Unplugged Premium. If you're interested in the news we're hearing from our network of insiders, if you're interested in listening to premium interviews with world leaders in finance, technology, healthcare, biotech, mining, all sectors, politics, and more, head over to wsuoffer.com and become a member today. So we made it super simple and it's also super cheap. I want to make Wall Street Unplugged Premium as close to a one-stop shop view as possible for macro insights, trend predictions, investment recommendations to interviews with high-level guests. And who knows what else? We're going to have plans to add a number of new segments and exclusive content as the platform grows again. WSU Premium is members only. And as a member, we want you to be getting a more valuable podcast. It's much more than that. So as a bonus, Wall Street Unplugged Premium members will also receive a free membership to the Dollar Stock Club. The Dollar Stock (4/8)

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Club is where Dale and I take all the information we receive for our various resources, connections, for the past seven days to distill it down to the most essential information and then we send it to you, our members. It's going to be a one-page document of actionable information every single week, often with specific trade ideas. And this is where the Dollar Stock Club, we first recommended Ethereum at just $175 and we all know about the crypto bloodbath for the past 12, 18 months. Yet Ethereum has still worked about 10 times that amount. It's also where we recommended Coppin Corporation at just 60 cents a share before it surged more than 1100%. The Dollar Stock Club is another way for you to derive more value from the work Dale and I do every single week. A place where you can see a running tally of our hottest ideas and most recent market analysts. So you're also going to get direct access to me. And this is going to be through a members only podcast, frankly speaking. So if you're (5/8)

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not already a paying member of Curzio Research or any of our regular products, you probably don't know I do a second podcast every Friday. It's my way of giving back to my most loyal subscribers. It's basically an ask me anything to vote exclusively to your questions. Frankcurzioresearch.com, feel free to ask them. Frankly speaking is where I'll answer a lot of those. So it's your chance to talk to me directly, whatever's on your mind. As you know, I can't give personal investment advice, but everything and anything is on the table. Want to know what I think about a particular stock? Ask me. Sector, industry, I'm here. Ask me. What do I think is coming for the markets in the next couple of weeks? Could it crash? Could it go up? Could it go down? Ask me. Because in the midst of all this uncertainty, especially over the past couple of years, frankly speaking is more available now than ever. And I can tell you every subscriber that has access to Frankly Speaking, the testimonials I get (6/8)

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are fantastic. Disclusive, they love it and it's personal. As I said, there's pockets from members only. That means it doesn't stream on iTunes. You're not going to find it anyplace else. You get a notification from me in your inbox as soon as it's posted online. As a WSU premium member, you'll have access to Frankly Speaking. That's going to be absolutely for free. So the big reveal, how much is a membership to Wall Street Unplugged Premium? It's a million dollars, take it or leave it. I'm just kidding. I know seriously, I wanted a product that I could make affordable for any investor who wants it. So it's just going to be $10 a month. That's it. It's $10 a month for access to my expanded podcast, behind the scenes work with Daniel, free membership in the Dollar Stock Club and access to Frankly Speaking. That's my Q&A podcast. Just $10 a month for all of that. Again, Wall Street Unplugged Premium premieres tonight. It's the very first one and we're going to have a brand new stock (7/8)

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recommendation. So I'm really excited for this launch, real excited for what's coming down the line. So to make sure you don't miss a single thing, go to wsuoffer.com. That's wsuoffer.com. Sign up today, you can access your very first episode. Thanks so much for listening. (8/8)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Justin Bieber, Napster, and the metaverse in your living room.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street, right to you on Main Street. Good day everybody, and thank you for tuning into the Wall Street Unplugged podcast. On this Thursday, January 5th, 2023, I'm your fill-in, your transitory guest host, Daniel Creech, research analyst here at Curzio Research. Yes, I'm the one that works for, alongside behind and with, the one and only Frank Curzio, who continues to be at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, as he hinted at on Tuesday's program. I filled in yesterday for the first time. Today is day two of that. Always a pleasure. Email me, Daniel at Curzio Research dot com, with your feedback, good or bad, Daniel at Curzio Research dot com. Got an update from Frank out in Las Vegas, as well as a couple of interesting news stories that I find intriguing, and I'll explain why you should give a flying Florida (1/17)

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about these as well. In the help to just shape us individual investors on how to think through what's going on around the world around us or in the world around us related to the economy. Next we're going to talk about Frank out in Viva Las Vegas. He's in meetings constantly throughout the day with all kinds of companies, big and small, ones you've heard of such as auto manufacturers, Sony, et cetera, but also a lot of smaller companies. This year he's excited about a couple of things. He mentioned on Tuesday's podcast about it being a huge year for the tech industry in general because tech had such a down year. NASDAQ was down over 30% in 2022. A lot of those stocks have gotten hit hard, a lot of publicly traded companies. That transition, a lot of publicly traded companies have gotten hit hard. A lot of private companies are even in worse shape as funding dries up, the high cost of capital as interest rates rise makes it more difficult to gain investors as a whole. Then the real (2/17)

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kicker is when the market doesn't reward just growth but looks for fundamentals and value where you have to take that money, those investor monies, work and improve your products to where they become profitable. That's a huge transition. That's one of the reasons this is a really exciting time at the CES. Frank was telling me that one of the big announcements is Orbit, spelled O-O-R-B-I-T. The company that's building the technology platform powering the metaverse, which is your combination of reality, augmented reality, artificial intelligence, etc. Better social media experience is what's going to play out over years. Orbit today announced its first of its kind partnership with manufacturer LG, the smart TV maker. Think about this. Smart TVs are a dime a dozen now. They're amazing. They maneuver around and click through for the most part. They're light. They hang on your wall. They look great. Prices have come down. Everybody's got a flat screen almost. Orbit says it's behind (3/17)

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technology powering the metaverse, LG Electronics, and they are bringing an interoperable virtual world to LG TVs. Through this partnership, Orbit and LG will bring immersive games and experiences together and make it easy for consumers to interact in the metaverse. That last line from their press release is key to me because, as Frank often talks about, the big disruptors are usually cheaper and easier for consumers, at least over the midterm. If you want to make it easy for somebody, why are cellphones so easy to use for people of all ages? Because you just look and click on apps. You just point and touch, point and touch. They make it very, very easy. I'm not a tech guy, even though depending on my age and how you look at that, I should be. But the ease of use will help attract customers very significantly to this space in a magnitude that gets people's attention on growth. If you can sit on your couch, you can be anybody and say, �Ah, you know, the metaverse this, the metaverse (4/17)

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that, make fun of Facebook for changing its name, losing billions of dollars so far. The stock has gotten cut tremendously. I think it's down over 50%, excuse me, from its recent highs.� Yet, if everybody through their living room can experience, join, communicate, or buy something through their TV, through the ease of either their regular clicker for their remote control or a different clicker for their headset or whatever, you know, anything, that is not a big barrier to me. I think that will take off tremendously and I think that that's a huge deal for metaverse companies to be partnering with such a well-known and huge company like LG. This is just the beginning, not technically the beginning of CES, but this is just to show you the inner workings and what goes on behind the scenes even during bear markets. This CES, these companies have been preparing for this since last year. Yeah, you've had a lot happen over the last year, but it doesn't stop productivity. It doesn't stop (5/17)

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projects, all projects, all productivity going forward and this is one of those examples. I'm impressed by LG and this company, Orbit, as well, just because I love the aspect of entering in through your living room on your TV. Maybe a lot of people just go there once, check it out, and then put it on the shelf for a few minutes or months or whatever and don't go back, but getting everybody into this easy usage of trying to experience or see what the metaverse could be or is, even in the earliest stages, is very good for the space in general. Frank is also meeting with a company, Wave, which does virtual concert platforms or is a virtual concert platform and they just announced a huge concert with an artist many of you have probably heard of. I guarantee everybody listening to this podcast has heard of him, even if they don't listen to a single song, Justin Bieber. There was rumors that he was going to sell his portfolio for, was it 150? I know it was over, I believe it was over 100 (6/17)

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million. Anyway, I saw it on CNBC over the last couple of weeks because they were comparing how young of a guy he is to other artists who sold portfolios and books of their music rights, royalties, et cetera, like Bruce Springsteen or somebody and how they have quote unquote more hits, more years, they've been superstars for 30, 40 years. Anyway, Justin Bieber in a virtual concert was just announced, again, at the Consumer Electronics Show with virtual concert platform Wave. Now later on, remember, this is fun when I call Frank early in the morning because there's a three hour difference between the East Coast here on Amelia Island where I'm broadcasting from all the way to the desert in Nevada for Frank. I call him bright and early and tell him, listen, you can't be adapted to the time zone yet. It's still nine o'clock, your time as well. Even though the clock says six this morning when I called him. He's meeting with Sony and Samsung. They're going to have a big product reveal. He's (7/17)

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going to update everybody next week when he's back in the saddle, of course. The excitement that I got from talking to him is just how the metaverse and the presence this year at the CES, its first time ever, is a huge theme. It's a huge buzz and it's going to come out and it's going to lead to and he's going to come out of this with a lot of great ideas. We'll all look forward to a more in-depth, up-to-date analysis of Frank's fun, working vacation. I'll give him a hard time because I'm still here in Florida while he's out in Las Vegas, but that's okay. So a lot of fun. Frank, we wish him safe travels and a lot of big winners coming from the CES. Moving on, enough updates about Franks in Vegas. But related to Frank Curzio, at the end of last year, we were talking about Blackstone's Real Estate Investment Trust, BREIT, and how they had limited redemptions from investors in this $68 billion-ish real estate fund all over the world. They were talking about how the slowdown in the Chinese (8/17)

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real estate market and economy led to some investors wanting to ask for redemptions and get some of their money back. That caused a domino effect of other investors asking for their money back. And since real estate is not a liquid asset, if enough investors similar to a bank run want all their money back, you can't give it back in time, so they limit redemptions. Caused a lot of headlines and volatility in the stock, although this stock, the BREIT, is private. There's reports here that the value is down about $20 billion in market value since the beginning of December. However, Blackstone's Real Estate Investment Trust just got a huge... What's the best word here? Do we want to say investment or bailout? Somewhere in between. The University of California is putting $4 billion into Blackstone's real estate vehicle aimed at individuals, investors, providing crucial, crucial ballast for a fund that has been beset by a wave of redemptions. The interesting thing here is how this all come (9/17)

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about. Blackstone president Jonathan Gray... Now I'm going to tell you what is being reported here and then I'm going to tell you what I believe actually happened and I will leave it up to you, the smart, individual, open-minded thinker that listened to this podcast, for you to decide which way you want to lean towards and or bet with. Blackstone president Jonathan Gray said the investment from the University of California came about as a result of his TV interview he did about BREIT on December 8th. Mr. Gray's, again, Blackstone president, comments on this December 8th interview prompted the University of California chief investment officer Jagdeep Bichir, butchering that, I apologize, who has a long-standing relationship with the firm to contact Blackstone to see if there was a way to work together. Mr. Gray of Blackstone and the gentleman from University of California did a significant amount of due diligence before committing to the deal, crisscrossing the country to meet with the (10/17)

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heads of all the portfolio companies in the real estate investment trust. Alright, that sounds pretty legit. The investment will come in the form of common equity in the Blackstone real estate income trust and will be subject to the same fees and terms the vehicles other shareholders get. Now, let's get into some details here. The University of California is investing $4 billion into common equity in this REIT and they are going to hold it for six years. That's different because everybody else has the option or had the option to sell and or redeem up until last year. As part of the agreement, the University of California investments will put its BREIT shares into a strategic venture to which Blackstone will contribute $1 billion of its shares it already owns. The venture will have an 11.25% hurdle rate, meaning that Blackstone's net annualized returns exceed that rate of 11.25%. If they exceed that, Blackstone will get an extra 5% incentive fee. If the vehicle's performance falls short (11/17)

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of 11.25%, the billion dollars that Blackstone is putting into the deal as part of this will help cover that. They're guaranteeing to say it a different way, so that's what's being reported. Blackstone was saying, hey, don't worry about all these redemptions coming on. We're going to limit redemptions. We're not giving you your money back, but there's no worries here. We're a private company. We're not marking down any assets anytime soon, and we're still performing a lot better than every other publicly traded peer. Don't ask any more questions or raise any more doubt. Then California comes in, just like Mr. Warren Buffett would or has in the past, and says, listen, do you need help? Maybe we can work together. We've got a long standing relationship and we'll do our due diligence because you've got to say the word due diligence as many times as due diligence can be said because after the FTX and nobody did due diligence, we don't want to look like fools. They did their due diligence (12/17)

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and they come up with a deal. This real estate fund has posted 12.7% net annualized returns since its inception. If you are the University of California, this is a buyer's market. You step in with $4 billion, you're getting guaranteed 11.25% just shy of its annualized returns to date. You have zero risk for six years other than returning 11.25% on your billions of dollars. For Blackstone's side, they're going to do their best as they should to perform because they got caught off guard, had to sell some properties, had to limit withdrawals and redemptions, and now they're signing this big deal. But notice that the $4 billion that goes in is still going to get feed just like all the other money. They're going to get some off the top. They're incentivized to do whatever they have to, pull whatever strings, move around other assets to beat this 11.25% because then they get another 5% in incentive deals. This is a win-win for both Blackstone and University of California, but I think it's a (13/17)

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lot bigger win for the University of California. As far as individual investors take away from this, I would use caution when looking at real estate investment trusts right now because we've had such a boom in rental prices, rents on a monthly basis, and the amount of nice apartment complexes and or housing starts even despite the recent pullback over the last year in real estate as the Fed has raised interest rates to the point where the 30-year mortgage more than doubled in 2022. My point to all this is you got big players just pushing each other around, bailing each other out for a lack of a better term. That's fine. If you're an individual investor in this, this should help you sleep better at night. I still wouldn't be so gung-ho about this. If you're an individual investor in other publicly traded REIT, just pay attention and look at where their properties are. Are they in nicer areas? Are they in busy areas? Look at the balance sheets and be cautious on the sky-high dividend (14/17)

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payout rates right now because if they're so sky-high, when you can go to a two-year treasury bond and get 4% plus, if they're much higher than that, you have to ask how are they generating those returns? What kind of leverage are they taking on? Do you want to expose yourself to leverage and uncertainty as interest rates continue to rise, the economy continues to slow, and the Fed is telling you unemployment is going to continue to rise, which at some point is going to cause a major impact on the ability of people to pay high rents, live in nicer apartment buildings, and continue that trajectory of higher and upward in prices. I would use any POPs to get out of some of this stuff because if you're in real estate investment trust because you have a passion for real estate and you like the income, that's fine. Again, just know your portfolio. If you're strictly in it for the income, you can look all over the place, including bonds, bond funds, other well-run companies. Site Centers, (15/17)

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SITC is the ticker, but Site Centers is a real estate investment trust. They own commercial properties in some of the best areas in the United States. They focus on buildings that have $100,000 in annual income per household in those areas. They want a lot of foot traffic, a lot of car traffic, etc. But that stock year-over-year is down probably 10 to 15% and it pays around a 4% yield. Well, 4% yield is great except for the fact that you're down 15% on your capital over the last year, if you sell. Of course, I'm not saying that you should. I'm pointing out that don't just chase yields in this because now in a higher interest rate environment, a higher inflationary environment, investors are going to be able to earn income through great dividend paying companies that not only pay but grow dividends as well as the old boring bonds like treasuries and such. Alright ladies and gentlemen, day two is coming to a close. I appreciate it. So grateful to have the opportunity to fill in for the (16/17)

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Frank Curzio, the one and only Frank Curzio. I'll be back for all of our paying subscribers for our Frankly Speaking. Send any questions to me at Daniel at Curzio Research dot com. That's Daniel at Curzio Research dot com. Cheers everybody. We'll catch you next week. Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its hosts and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility. (17/17)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - One of the most important events ever for tech companies.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's January 3rd. Happy New Year Frank courageous the wall strip of pockets. We'll break the headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets of all of you enjoying the new year a great holiday Nice and fat New Year's resolutions Speaking for myself there. Yes ate a lot But enjoyed it with the family think about going to New York, but no way not with the weather. It was too crazy But hopefully all you guys Made it home. Okay. I made it to where he had to go. Okay, cuz I know She's Southwest. Holy cow. It's a nightmare over there right just traveling freezing weather horrible How are you supposed to be fun and I think it's more stressful this year especially for me closing my house So it's into the year just very stressful Actually glad to be back at it. And today you're gonna hear (1/18)

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from me and the next few days you're gonna hear from Daniel Creech Because I am about to head to the consumer electronics show which I do every single year for I believe it's over ten years I lose track I say eleven might be twelve might be nine. I don't know I lose track but every year I go there I sample all the technologies and this is If not the biggest one of the biggest conferences in the world and every year it's around the first second week It takes place and it's in Las Vegas and all the technology companies from around the world So the biggest and the best present their new technology their new services for what they're gonna release for 2023 For the full year And I've found some of my greatest ideas at these conferences. I think this year it's going to be even bigger You could say well Kobe 2020 was canceled. It wasn't But I say canceled it wasn't you know in person last year I actually went and an Omicron hit and then a lot of companies decided to cancel laid-up Pretty much (2/18)

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a day or two before the conference is pretty crazy You saw half of the company set up half of it was pretty much a disaster It was a real disaster last year was a shit show This year everybody's back 2.1 million square feet of space look it up. If you don't know how much that is. Holy cow It's not just the conference center, which is one of the biggest in the world But this is at several hotels It takes four days and you're lucky if you see 60% of everything You have great contacts there Leave me the right direction where to go Used to take tours and stuff like that no longer need to do that just have great contacts there You should meet a lot of subscribers there as well. It's occurs you want members. You're gonna be there. Give me a shout I'll be there till Sunday, and I'm leaving today Later on today, so I have a media badge because a lot of people for some reason like this podcast and listen to it so they say that I'm an influencer an influencer whatever that means these days, but (3/18)

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uh So I get immediate badge which allows me to have access to everything right even days before And top executives there and to be able to sample the technologies you have to wait online I bring You know video guys down with me, and you know we do all kinds of videos I'm sending to you We're gonna keep a lot of stuff behind a paywall at least a lot of the ideas and things like that So be sharing some of the videos guys be sure to watch me at Twitter at Frank Curzio tick-tock you'll see a lot of stuff. I'm gonna try to broadcast things live and Get having that kind of access and being able to do so much is really really cool especially since there will be 323 of the fortune global 500 companies in attendance We're talking about Sony Samsung Amazon Google Microsoft LG P&G Caterpillar John Deere Qualcomm AMD Verizon Accenture is swayed and write them down and memorize them anyway 174 countries will be represented 40 top retailers in the world being attendance and Over a hundred thousand (4/18)

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people that's were expecting They got to 170,000 people just before cold that was the record so it's gonna be over a hundred thousand I guess probably about a hundred fifteen hundred twenty thousand just because it's an international show and still places like China the places are closed and not flying in so Otherwise would be a lot bigger, but this show is going to be significant this year It's the first time that I can remember where you saw an absolute collapse in a tech sector All right usually it's rocking and rolling it's everything is great. It's been awesome since 2008 2009 You know a few hiccups here, and it not like this I Look at the Nasdaq down 33% on the year So you have all these semiconductor companies that are gonna be there you get a chance to talk to them These are semiconductors that we're seeing record demand Probably less than six months nine months ago six months ago Less than nine months ago, I'd say more like six months ago But so much so that they were building (5/18)

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more fab facilities going crit all the sudden. They're like whoa Everything just got turned off why because of the Fed Seen demand slow demand is gonna continue to slow throughout the year So this is a time for these companies not really to be aggressive with their growth plans and a lot of these companies are training Astronomical valuations like the invidious and snowflakes and things like that still great companies Great companies guys I'm not ragging on these companies in AMD's not ragging on these companies. I'm just saying Snickers is a great candy bar, but you don't want to pay $25 for it, right? That's where a lot of these companies are still trading even though a lot of the sector is down So now you're gonna see demand shrink which means your total addressable markets are gonna shrink and it's all about taking market share from everybody Else and that's who's gonna be the winners and the leaders going into the next bull market Which would probably be a couple of years from now (6/18)

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But make no mistake it's gonna be really freaking crazy especially early on next year Showed you how do money flow trader provide significant discounts You know a lot of people took me up in that offer again sending me emails and thanking me and how to protect my portfolio Not just protecting that making a fortune They really make it a lot of money just betting against a lot of things and I still think going into next year Didn't first six months earnings are way too high Yes sentiments a little weak and people will kind of predict the recession now But still most accounts are not predicting recession. There is gonna be recession. In fact, there was a recession right two straight quarters negative GDP growth They said the jobs number was great. Now. I realize second quarter job numbers were a million a million jobs off There's like ten thousand five hundred job openings compared to the 1.1 whatever million that before casted which is you know, I explained that in a podcast that that's (7/18)

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There's No other reason that you could look at that from a statistical point of view and be that wrong over 95% wrong and not say that that was fraudulent and how to do with an election how to do with ever whoever reported those numbers This isn't some crazy idiot that just wrote a report saying the job This is the Philly Fed going back and look at real time. They're going back and saying hey, you know what second quarter No, no, no, it wasn't 1.1 million jobs. We added which everyone said that's not a recession. We don't define a recession anymore Yes, it's been defined for last 60 years as two straight quarters negative GDP But that doesn't exist anymore because we have good strong jobs. Well turns out second quarter jobs aren't strong however, we're going to go into another recession coming this year and Companies the good news is they should see it coming And if you see it coming you could prepare so this isn't a credit crisis Well, you don't know what a bottom is people could (8/18)

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prepare they can cut their cost significantly But This is about management teams is about balance sheets and for the first time since I can remember Talk about two thousand and four or five six when numbers actually matter Numbers like balance sheet cash flow earnings things like that Not just like free subscribers that will one day turn into paid subscribers. Hopefully That used to be the business model because many people your platform as possible ten million millions billions doesn't matter It doesn't matter if you make money now doesn't matter now matters matters a lot But this consumer electronic show is gonna be significant. You're gonna find lots of ideas. I plan on flying lots of ideas for you I mean you're looking at all the major auto companies. This is where they go to now You should be the Detroit Auto Show they go here first All of them gonna be in attendance gonna get a look at the latest EV technology Which a lot of these companies can't make money on EVs. They're losing (9/18)

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money on every EV. They sold demands falling off a cliff A lot of these companies do not have the supply when it comes to batteries seen Tesla crash sharply crash past couple of months See due to Twitter and sales from Elon Musk whatever you want to blame it on But a lot of these companies where the whole world was like EVs of the future be careful in Order to make a change in order to disrupt the world you got to do two things You got to make something easier. You got to make something cheaper EVs are not easier It's not easy than going to gas station and fill up and they're definitely not cheaper so be careful thinking that that's the biggest trend That's guaranteed to happen. It's not guaranteed, and you're seeing a lot of companies in Big trouble when I'm looking at their balance sheets, so let's see what the GM's the Ford's let's see what that would Mercedes and BMW I'm gonna be able to test drive a lot of these vehicles because of that media badge which I did last year Good look (10/18)

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at again semis very very important You Get 5g robotics drones cryptos and if T's Gonna be a big part this year gaming streaming Augmented reality virtual reality is gonna be very very very big this year smart city smart homes AI is going to be massive this year Massive finally it's not just a story like 5g was Because how many years we're finally finally this year last year was starting to see 5g roll out Everybody says it's rolled out wasn't really rolled out now. It's rolled out, but those smart cities smart homes and Web 3 in the metaverse making their first This is the first time and a CS history that metaverse web 3 are going to have a presence there Even a lot of those companies Have presence even with TCG there talk to everybody it's gonna be really cool. There's some great connections It's gonna be a lot of fun guys so be sure to watch on Twitter listen to me on Twitter go to tick tock or whatever they're gonna be relaying stuff back to Daniel I'll try to do a broadcast when (11/18)

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I'm there, but Dan is gonna be updating you as I'm updating him But our whole team is gonna be on this like we are all the time gonna be broadcasting everywhere And it's really cool shit guys. It's really a lot of fun. It's stuff that you see there You're talking to robots you see drones flying around It's just all latest the newest technology and just having that kind of access is really really awesome So I'm gonna bring that to you curse your research subscribers listeners It should be a lot of fun over next week by him leaving a little while so I'm gonna keep this podcast short Just let you know stay tuned Okay, make sure you're tuning in To those channels make sure you you're going to our website curves our research. We're gonna have leaving our YouTube channel We're gonna have a lot of this stuff because this is a time where you're gonna find great great companies It's not often when you see a total Collapse as many years that I got in there It's never been like this before with a (12/18)

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Nas X down this much where you're gonna see great ideas You're gonna see companies moving the needle they have to reinvent themselves They have to pull back on growth and focus on What areas are working? Where should we push growth? Where do we need to dial back a little bit like web3? Maybe we need to dial back a little bit here. Let's see But the management teams and what they're gonna do and the announcements this is How you make a ton of money in technologies when the market gets absolutely crushed This is what you want to look for a lot of these names are still overvalued But there are some very very good names in this space That are down significantly because the Nas X down 33% of the year You know that there's companies in the Nas X that are down 70% plus and they're plenty even some of the largest names Look at the Amazon's look at the Facebook's which is now meta. Let's see are those buys or do we want to go someplace else? We're gonna first hand look at a lot of companies (13/18)

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have lots of meetings set up It's gonna be a lot of fun really really cool stuff and you get to see me test a lot of these technologies live So I know you're hoping that I fall on my ass So I'm trying to scooter or last time I jumped into this big tank using this Underwater scooter thing and stuff and I had to put on one of those wetsuits and I looked like a big fat seal I don't care I Shouldn't say I don't care how great a shape you in because if you're an absolutely perfect shape and you're slender you look good in That but 99.9% of people you don't look good in the wetsuit and me being a little chubby much better shape But a little chubby, huh? Wasn't that pretty but man that thing was so cool. I actually bought it was $1,200 I bought it. My kids loved it and we still used this day So there's a lot of real cool stuff there it's gonna be gaming eSports all this thing you guys see celebrities there but a lot a lot of fun and again my purpose there is Not just to entertain and try (14/18)

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these gadgets out and have fun to make a fool out of myself But to really fund the best ideas and every single year if you'd follow me Gonna do this for a very very long time. Not just CS within this business for 30 years plus And I look forward to the CES just because it gives me an edge in terms of ideas I want to invest in over the next few months in 2020 based on some of the meetings I had and I'm not talking about meetings With CEOs and key executives the employees there are brilliant. These are people that know their shit You have the booth babes, right? You had the booth babes you get by them then you ask them a question They don't even know how to count to 10. Oh, hold on Let me get you somebody right just so they get some of the people in these booths but the employees behind there like when I talked to Erickson and they were talking to me about Man It's just Cisco and Erickson and talk about you know The Internet of Things and cloud I didn't understand cloud in 2013 and I was (15/18)

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talking to Erickson 2014 I think it was and cloud was starting to be a really big deal in 2014 I said winning way over you and he goes we're not even in the first And he was right and I was like, holy shit You're just things like that You're talking to very very smart people have been the company for 20 30 years who blow the executive positions, but guys That when you see your badge and they see that they can get exposure that's what you're doing there You want media attention? You want to get exposure? You want to get pictures taken you want to get interviewed and a lot of the times these guys shut down our boots for us And we do live stuff right there on the floor and it's a lot of fun. So definitely tune in Also, they look at biotech JP Morgan healthcare conference coming up too. So, you know in the next couple weeks I'll be really really busy. These are two sectors I've been Annihilated and right now I want as much information as I can for you guys try to find some really really (16/18)

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good ideas because There are gonna be lots of good ideas and also lots of names that you need to avoid I try to bring all those to you over the next couple days and over the next couple weeks and my newsletters be a lot Of fun leaving it to Daniel you can give him shit Daniel occurs at research calm be sure to bust his chops Because he'll be taking over the reins for the next couple days but again, I'll be reporting to him and hopefully we'll do something live and see if we could uh, You know figure that out on our end technical and I am bringing, you know, my camera guy and crew with me So which should be really cool So I'll try to do one podcast there if I can if not, I'd relay everything back to Daniel I just to give you updates but again follow me on social media. It's gonna be a really really good week and I'll see you guys soon. Take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information (17/18)

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presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (18/18)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Is it too late to buy oil stocks?.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main How's it going out there? It's Thursday, June 2nd, and you're listening to the Wall Street unplugged podcast Normally hosted by the one and only Frank Curzio However, he is out traveling today and tomorrow as a programming note. You are stuck with me today Hi Daniel Creech senior analyst here at Curzio research where I get to talk about things that interest me and convince you Dear listeners as to what you should give a flying Florida about in today's markets always love enter filling in for Frank here Glad to be back was back on yesterday's podcast And again since I said he's traveling today and tomorrow for all you paying subscribers our most favorite types I will be doing frankly speaking. So send any of your questions or feedback to me Daniel at Curzio research calm That's Daniel at (1/20)

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Curzio research calm when I'm behind the mic. I love to take the helm here I'll give you the world according to Creech and the markets right now what to expect and let's start off with how to prepare yourself Embrace yourself for the coming hurricane and we have to figure out if it's a small hurricane with light winds or a damaging hurricane Yes, I'm having some fun with Jamie Dimon JP Morgan CEO and One of the most respected and best bankers in America, and I actually like Jamie Dimon from what little I don't know him But I I like how he can change his mind. He can he could admit he's kind of a you know He's one of those elitist humbles at times to make us small guys feel good But Jamie Dimon was all over CNBC Yesterday for he was talking to investors and He was talking about how hey, there's a storm cloud coming. We have decent times right now. It's sunny It may be a little cloudy, but boy headed down the road We got to brace yourself and he says JP Morgan is bracing ourselves and (2/20)

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we're going to be very conservative with our balance sheet Now, why would he be? foreshadowing warning Pointing out some would say the obvious That you should take cover or brace yourself Well a CEO said the other large factor worrying him is the Ukraine war and its impact on commodities including food and fuel Frank talk. I'm gonna dive deep into oil here You know in a moment But Frank talked about the food prices and how they're gonna be sustained and continue to go higher on Tuesday's podcast be sure and check that out Diamond says oil could hit 150 to 175 dollars a barrel. That's up from about 115 right now If I'm gonna give you the answer first and explain why you should go ahead and continue listening here because if you feel like you've Missed the massive run and oil or energy stocks. I'm going to tell you you have it. I'm gonna share some stats as This podcast unfolds as to try to convince you and make sure you at least have exposure My goal here is to break down explain. Hey, (3/20)

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Continue transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Is it too late to buy oil stocks?.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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here's what is catching my eye Here's why here's why I think you should give a flying, Florida Remember, it's a family program about this and make sure you position position yourself in your portfolio So that you benefit and don't get hindered or hurt By the volatility and a lot of the market pullback in general because energy has been working it will see its ups and downs Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying it's all gonna be straight up from here from current prices across the board But overall I do think higher energy prices and higher stock prices related to energy are in the near And distant future for a couple reasons. So let's pay attention as to what's going on. We know about the awful war and Between Russia invading Ukraine. We've talked about that I may address that some more on frankly speaking, but I want to point out to something here because These kind of things take time to unfold whether good or bad when you have a spill in the river Obviously, that's a bad but it's going (4/20)

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to take time to work its way downriver into other areas And that's what we want to try to think about investors is where's the puck going? Okay. How are we positioned for today? And Why and what's changed so our new environment here and the reason Jamie Dimon is warning everybody is because now you have the Federal Reserve switching gears instead of going from a Easy money policy low interest rate environment where growth and borrowing money to grow and not make revenue was rewarded That's the mentality That was the base layer The Fed put as you would call it to support higher asset prices across the board and when interest rates are zero You can justify a lot crazier higher asset prices Now that's changing in two ways one quantitative tightening Where the Fed is going to stop? Purchasing as many bonds stop buying bonds and start selling them or letting them roll off their balance sheet Which means they're taking a massive buyer and a massive provider of liquidity out of the market (5/20)

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Which the market in theory is gonna have to figure out where those rates are No pun or no shock here, but rates are gonna be higher. That's why you're already seeing them go up in terms in Second and what they're doing first with that is the Fed is actually raising rates for the first time in several years And we've talked about that a lot. So Jamie Dimon is pointing out. Hey the forward picture the road up ahead is much much different than the rearview mirror and I appreciate that and I totally agree with him The same mentality of by the dips in the tech sector that we've had for several years called the last decade where growth is vastly Outperformed will continue. It's just going to shift over to different sectors like the energy sector and what I mean by when you see these headlines about the European Union in The United States is sanctioning Russia Causing more economic harm over there. They're they're disrupting. They're trying to get cut off their economies from Russian oil What (6/20)

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does that do? Well, Russia is one of the largest what three producers or so top five at least in the world You take away their main product you take away their funding you hurt their economy, then they can't fund their war the problem with that is Their they're going to continue to discount their oil and get money from China and India They've already admitted and are buying a lots of oil. I understand what the governments are doing in a perspective, but most of it is just show Because that's what politics are to gain votes if we if we consider what they're doing you What has happened here in the last couple of days you can go through the Wall Street Journal or major financial news outlets You have Biden writing an op-ed which I'm gonna go over in the Wall Street Journal My plan for fighting inflation you have Jerome Powell getting called to the White House for a meeting with Biden Of course, they're totally independent of one another the Fed and the White House don't want to talk if (7/20)

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you believe that I have some wonderful oceanfront property in Arizona I could sell you and many friends of mine have them too, which I'll be glad to introduce for a small finders fee If Janet Yellen Treasury Secretary former Fed chair admitting that she got inflation wrong but now you should listen everybody because it's all going to be okay and How are they planning on to fight inflation? Well from President Biden's op-ed from Tuesday, May 31st here He points out quickly I won't meddle with the Fed but I will tackle high prices while guiding the economy's transition to stable and steady growth That sounds great as long as you don't need any merit behind it The upsetting thing here is that the obvious answer for lower prices For To lower gas prices oil prices is to increase production and we could easily do that if we had policies in place But we don't I'm not gonna rant about politics here, but we simply don't have an encouraging or a tailwind From our government to incentivize and (8/20)

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encourage oil producers to produce more to make us more energy independent We have in previous ministrations. We've seen how that works Results are very easy to see That's not the case right now the issue and why you should be bracing yourself for higher higher oil prices and higher sustained prices is Because they're not politicians aren't attacking the issue of supply and demand They're just playing the blame game and you can do search engine You can do quick searches on the internet here for look at Senate Senator. Excuse me, Elizabeth Warner talking about Taxing oil profits and it wasn't too long ago where they dragged some oil executives in front of Capitol Hill to explain Why aren't you lowering gas prices? How does this whole thing work? They're not incentivized to drill and Increase production they're incentivized and even BlackRock like I've talked about in the past one of the largest asset managers who has Decided to throw its weight around what they deem politically correct (9/20)

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and better for everybody Put ExxonMobil board members in place Specifically to be more of a green and get let rid get out of the oil business essentially From a macro perspective to do less drilling to be more environmental friendly at all cost Knowing knowing do not kid yourself that that would vastly drive up the price foil and Exxon would benefit from it I know that because allow me to pat myself on the back slightly I have had losers as well, but I recommended ExxonMobil about a year ago because of that because of those Environmentally friendly and I'm using air quotes here for those of you following along Environmentally friendly board members and what has the price of oil done since gone up now? There's been other factors, of course But Exxon has definitely benefited that it dropped a quick 10 to 15 percent After I recommended it in June of last year now, it's up roughly 60 percent not even including dividends knocking on probably $100 a share I haven't looked at it most recently (10/20)

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But when the government policies are attacking whether Oil companies for the price of oil and blaming Putin. They're showing you their hand. They're showing you that hey, this is the blame game here's the cards we're gonna blame whether it be recession or lack of GDP or You know higher interest rates. It's all because of higher energy prices and the Fed has to get this under control That's just not going to fight the problem, which is why you as the individual ought to understand Oil prices are not going down anytime soon in the op-ed President Biden highlights that he was Released one of the largest strategic releases from global oil reserves in history That's including the US and he got partners around the world to do that he announced that he was going to release about a million barrels a day and That added up each day million barrels a day across the board each day at the end of March Okay, so oil hit its high recent high about $123 a barrel it's only 115 now Six seven percent gas (11/20)

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prices continue to go higher. But again, they've shown you the cards. It's not about fixing the prices It's about who they're going to blame and how they can do that politically that Macro level is higher energy prices number two So to get back on track here with things take time that's President Biden That's what's here in the US and oil companies are now incentivized to Store up their balance sheets and pay massive dividends and buy back shares to reward shareholders through this new sustained higher energy prices So you should take note look at your exons your chevrons your Devon energies Viper energy venom is the symbol we've we've talked about that in the past Turning across the pond here The European Union takes a big chance on oil banned this is also from the Wall Street Journal Wednesday, June 1st One of the interesting things they did was not only they're banning oil shipments, but they're gonna ban the insurance or ensuring of Russian oil cargo that's a topic for a different (12/20)

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discussion but that interests me a because I love insurance and the inner workings behind it and B because a Lot of the insurance on those cargo oil cargos Doesn't necessarily have to go to European Union for them for those Lloyd's of London and different types of insurers outside of Excuse me within the European Union to write those contracts The let me see here. So I'm switching back and forth Energy headwinds rattle Europe. This is from Tuesday, May 31st And I just want to point out some highlights because everybody wants to talk about getting off oil for the Necessity and the human rights thing and to protest the war which I agree with that's fine What they're not telling you is the reality that it's not going to help the individual who they claim it will In Germany Europe's biggest buyer of Russian gas Wildlife protection groups routinely challenge wind farms stretching their approval time for more than five years in Italy Europe's second biggest register Russian gas producer (13/20)

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authorities reject 90% of all wind energy projects okay, this is before the War broke out and before it got politically correct to get off and just blame Russia for everything skipping ahead listen this Almost 600 renewable energy products are currently being reviewed by the ministry which didn't respond for comment. Now, this is The Ministry of Culture over overseas I'm talking here and I'm cherry-picking out of this article my big point here is the takeaway is that when you see the headlines saying we're getting off Russian oil and we're gonna replace it with cleaner or greener energy outside of natural gas and nuclear which isn't as easy just to turn on and switch over everything to supply and keep their Standards of living at normal That's why you're seeing price hikes all over across commodities and think of how bad that's hurting the individual But all that be damned everybody is playing the blame game from governments over here here in the US to governments overseas And this is (14/20)

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an easy Foreshadowing of seeing hey, not only can they blame higher prices now But they can blame the recession and everything else is going to get lumped into this So that's what you need to be aware of on the form of energy front a Couple Couple more minutes here just on just on energy and why I want to share some fun stats and take all this with a grain Of salt here. This is from See, oh, I'll see if I can share some links but I had a Syblis research and if you just search for different sector weightings in the S&P 500 Chris McIntosh who we need to get back on the podcast is Has been wonderful about looking at the and I think cuppy as well as well two great guests we've had on Wall Street unplugged We're talking about or have pointed out on Twitter in different broad areas how the investment dollars of the weighting of the S&P 500 is still very low to energy in Forms of or in terms of excuse me to other asset classes. So for instance on this I'm looking in In December of 2020 Energy (15/20)

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made up about two point two eight percent of the US stock market large-cap sector weightings That increased to a mere two point six seven. So from two point two eight to two point six seven at the end of 2021 Let's say that went up From December of last year to six months later. Here we are Another couple percent that still means the energy represents only five percent of large caps on the S&P 500 sector weighting Compare this to information technology being almost 30 percent communications 10 percent consumer discretionary over 12 percent financials 10 percent health care 13 percent Energy is still a drop in the bucket and what that means that there is still a lot more money that can come into This space meaning prices meaning oil prices will stay substantially higher. The new normal is higher prices If those spike to say 150 to 175 like Jamie Dimon predicts or warns about That money will come flooding in even more a lot of volatility will be here but because of those companies (16/20)

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because of drillers like Devon and the other companies that have these split or Adjustable dividend plans now where they're gonna give you a fixed dividend and then based on cash flows in the previous quarter and earnings They can increase that that is going to attract a massive amount of capital as you continue to see high growth and stocks get sold off and that's what Hopefully I've drilled into your head on this podcast that if you don't have exposure to energy and commodities I'm gonna make a quick comment about commodities right now But you need to and you can scale in you can buy overtime buy a third of a position or a half a position Or whatever you normally would wait a little bit and then look to add to that whether the price is up or down as long as the thesis doesn't change and As I've pointed out you would really need government policies to change in order to drive the price of oil and gas lower And that's just something that's not going to happen right now in my opinion (17/20)

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We'll look forward to you know unpacking that and things as as the weeks and months go on But understand you need to be prepared for this stringing out of volatility and lower asset prices in Growth for the next several months even into this year because the feds gonna meet here a couple more times towards the end of the year the big Thinking is they're gonna pause the rate hikes in September Ironically right before the midterm elections don't need to go there either, but that doesn't you've already had fed Voters and non voters fed board members come out and talk about how that's not a Reversion back to the old days of easy money policies or a pause they say and they're still Supposedly serious about fighting inflation which means higher rates which means you're gonna see this money allocate towards energy and commodities on commodities real quick Do not be fearful of having some exposure to gold I know Frank and I disagree with that on The real interest rates and when he's been right (18/20)

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so far gold has been flat Copper and Metals in mining like tech resources is Trading near 52 week highs pay attention to that one do your own research on this these are just some ones I'm throwing out there for you because I want you to have exposure to these with tailwinds offshore oil companies as well But metals of mining tech look at Freeport Mac Moran and even your boring Gold producers like Newmont Mining are just they just have a lot of tailwinds at their back with either Sustained gold prices if you just don't need gold prices to fall out of bed and with all the nervousness and all the money printing And all the chaos and inflation going on Don't feel like you've missed the boat on oil and don't give up on just regular commodities and some of those like the metals of Mining like tech Freeport Mac Moran have had nice pullbacks from recent highs and I would definitely look to be a buyer of those Again scale in know this is a long-term game. This isn't a sprint Don't don't get (19/20)

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caught up on the day-to-day Headlines stick here to us here at Curzio research. Definitely tune into Wall Street unplugged like share subscribe I can't thank you all enough for in advance for your feedback and just the opportunity to do this I absolutely love it when I was on vacation this was by far the thing I miss most other than my family is sitting behind the mic and doing the podcast so Questions comments feedback Daniel at Curzio research comm I'll see all the paying subscribers tomorrow for frankly speaking And Frank will be back to everybody on Tuesday. Have a great weekend Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (20/20)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Sam Bankman-Fried's arrest is a huge moment for crypto.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's Tuesday December 13th, and it's great to be with you on the Wall Street unplugged podcast I am your guest hosts your fill-in host your transitory host Daniel Creech research analyst here at Curzio research. Yes I'm the one that works alongside for behind and with the one and only Frank Curzio Who if he were here today would tell you that his absence is because nobody works in, Florida Nobody has anything to do no schedules to keep It's Christmas time You know what would be a great time for a wonderful holiday play Let's call it mid-morning on a weekday particularly Tuesday No Frank is spreading the Christmas joy or partaking in it watching a Christmas play For one of his young daughters. He will be back. No worries everybody He will be back in the office this afternoon and be back behind (1/23)

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the microphone tomorrow for our typical Headlines and back and forth for Wednesday So today you're stuck with me and I want to talk about two major things and I'm gonna ask you to do a major favor I want you to go to your iTunes or Pandora Spotify whatever it is you use and I want you to play Pink Floyd song Or the song money the money song by Pink Floyd And I'll give you a second to dial that up or you can hit pause because I want you to hear the cha-ching cha-ching cha-ching It's like Las Vegas people lights are everywhere whistles are going horns are blowing. The market is clapping standing ovation We are loving life right now because the market is set to open much higher after a strong rally yesterday Why well the consumer price index? Data came out this morning at 830 a.m. Eastern Standard Time I won't bog you down with a lot of details because they're difficult to follow just over on audio, but know that Expectations or the print came in much lower than expectations November CPI (2/23)

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came in at zero Spot one percent that's verse zero spot three and The prior reading was 0.4. So that's even better November core CPI came in at zero spot two percent that's also lower than the expectations of zero point three percent bottom line The market is getting more confidence in the ability for Fed chair Jerome Powell to steer this giant ship of the US economy around storms Into a soft landing ie we're going to raise rates calls a little bit of slowdown the economy a little bit higher unemployment But we're not going to go into the hard word It's not popular Look at markets Dow is set to open over 2% S&P over almost 3% higher Nasdaq is almost 4% higher Everything is in rally mode except the US dollar which is also positive to see for gold quick note on gold a Bank of America survey came out a fund manager survey FMS how they refer to it and it was a shocking 21% of fund managers Said that gold is undervalued now. Why is that important? That's important because a gold continues (3/23)

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to hang around the 1800 dollar level, which I'm impressed with Amidst such a strong dollar rally recently But fund managers 21% say it's a gold is undervalued that's up from 13% That's a significant that's over 60% increase and yet the price of gold from the last reading was up 9% So you have more fund managers thinking that gold is still undervalued even after a nice pop of 9% It's up over a percent today as the dollar pulls back again because investors are absolutely ecstatic That we are going to have a soft landing I Don't want to be a negative Nancy I don't want to be a glass half empty guy, but this is just one day We'll see how the markets play out tomorrow And today so today is a couple interesting things You have the CPI data that just came out. We'll see how markets close Also today is day one of two of the Fed meeting tomorrow at two o'clock They are going to announce the next interest rate increase market consensus is for 50 basis points Which would be a break in trend from (4/23)

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the last several meetings of 75 basis points each time This inflation data could towards the end of the day get some people nervous or into tomorrow I think pal is very clear on saying that he was basically going to do 50 and I think he could change his language to Be more hawkish because of such a strong rally and you can tell they're looking at numbers and trying to manage expectations in the stock market indexes for investors in my opinion I Don't think it's gonna change anything on the 50 basis points tomorrow That and then his press conference will be at 2 30 tomorrow and That will be interesting because that's where the old that's where the markets will have to hang on all the kind of on every word And every language to see what he says about today's prints. Remember he said this in the past. He's trying to be Transparent and I got to give him a little credit for that. But remember he is continually said This is going to take some time one reading is not a trend They want to see (5/23)

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several positive inflation readings in a row meaning several months of data and as Frank's been talking about and I I would overall you can still be bearish inside these massive market rallies and The reason for that is because we've talked about how earnings estimates are still very high We still have a lot of negative headwinds as these interest rate Increases make their way through the economy through all kinds of sectors and things from services to housing to appliances to manufacturing enjoy this for the next couple days and traders if you are looking to Unload some of your high growth stocks that are rallying with the market I would look to trim some of those positions or at least reevaluate everything and I would also Continue to look at buying puts on your favorite names that are going to struggle over the next 12 months from here So just a quick note on that. Hopefully the money song by Pink Floyd is still playing because It's just incredible how volatile this market is and (6/23)

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will continue to be and what else is going higher and that is the mighty Bitcoin Bitcoin has rallied over four hundred five hundred dollars to almost the $18,000 level which is pretty impressive considering the fact that all else is being or Excuse me. The fact that there's so many clouds around the crypto is trading at just under $18,000 up over 5% some may say that it was a Better than expected CPI reading that sent Bitcoin Up over three or four percent It was already up a little bit into the print But that's not the case and now I need you to go to your music device and I need you to switch Genres from Pink Floyd and rock over to country and Western and I'm not talking about this new country and Western stuff That's so hip-hoppy. It's odd. I'm talking about the old-school stuff I want you to play Waylon Jennings and Johnny Cash's song. There ain't no good chain gang Again, I will give you just a moment to get that up Maybe get through an ad click through the first five second ad in (7/23)

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here because Sam Bankman freed Is now in custody in the luxury life of the Bahamas waiting to be sent back to the old US of A Where he is charged with all kinds of multiple charges wire fraud securities fraud misleading investors Pawnee schemes you name it. He is allegedly guilty of it and the wild thing here. Is that You know, there is no coincidences with what's going on, especially when you bring in Washington DC so today in addition to everything else on this wonderful Tuesday the Chairman representative Maxine waters chairman waters and And The housing there's some committee here and I'm reading this John J. Ray the third who is the CEO of FTX now who took over and is managing this through its bankruptcy filings and trying to make sense and get people's funds back from the debacle that Sam Bankman freed and his Higher management have done They are testifying in front of the house and services house financial services committee today and Sam Bankman freed was supposed to virtually (8/23)

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attend now I Have no doubt that he was probably hanging out there trying to avoid what has just happened yesterday and him being arrested But he's been doing This is the most aggravating thing because he's been it's been over a month John J Ray the third took over on the early morning hours of November 11th as he says in his open testimony Which or his opening statement, which I'll get to in just a minute But it's been over a month for Sam Bankman freed. He's done several interviews both with smaller Not as well known Platforms on YouTube and different things and good for them for hopefully building a file as well as going on CNBC in the New York Times deal book and all that kind of thing and most of these and I know Frank and I have mentioned a little bit most of these interviews that he's done have just been Absolutely pathetic and it's just extremely frustrating for people Across the board in finance let alone somebody in our position meaning we we want to help individual investors (9/23)

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and kind of point to the bad actors and all this this is just another case of fraud and it gives crypto a black eye and the statements going back and forth on Twitter between Representative Maxine waters and Sam Bankman freed about well, we're trying we would love to have you testify if you could Oh, well representative Maxine waters. I I would love to I just don't have a lot of data I don't know if I'll be available by the time you're requesting blah blah blah Now it comes out the night before he gets arrested That House Financial Service Committee is gonna go ahead put out a statement. It just says oh, well, we're you know we're not we're not surprised that the Justice is taking action and we're gonna bring everybody to justice and all that kind of stuff. It's like are you kidding me? This has been the most convoluted Ridiculousness going on in finance. I mean, this is this is why people look at Wall Street and look at big institutions in a negative light and Today later on when mr. (10/23)

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John J. Ray the third that's that's fun to say Testifies I want to read a little bit of his opening statement because it's just as clear-and-cut Fraud as you can imagine here now, this is all legend. Nobody's guilty until they are Dragged in front of a jury of their peers and found guilty. So we're gonna continue on this front However, there's a lot of big holes that are pretty easy to identify Now, mr. Ray starts out and he you know, thanks everybody chairman waters ranking member McHenry Thank you so much for inviting me and all this He goes on to give a little background he says to give you a sense of my background on how I ended up in this Role, I have over 40 years of legal and restructuring experience I've been the chief restructuring officer or chief executive officer in several large and vexing corporate failures involving allegations of criminal activity Malfeasance including the Enron bankruptcy. There's one for you. Everybody sticks out He goes on to say nearly all of these (11/23)

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situations share common care Characteristics ranging from gross mismanagement excessive leverage failures and internal controls failures of external checks as a result of audit firm failures or Insufficient board governments. He continues to go on here is some of the kicker Some of the unexpectable management practices at the FTX group identified so far include now he gives a few bullet points here this is about a seven page opening statement and What I want to point out to you is that the lowest hanging fruit here is It doesn't matter what kind of regulation you have when customers give funds to a platform then they in no Circumstances expect those funds to be taken at will and used without their discretion knowledge or anything else And one of the bullet points that mr Ray points out is the use of computer infrastructure that gave individuals and senior management access to systems that stored customer assets Customer assets without security controls to prevent them from redirecting (12/23)

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those assets. Okay. Well, that's a little bit of a red flag Bullet to the storing of certain private keys to access hundreds of millions of dollars and crypto assets without effectively Effective security controls or encryption. All right So you kind of see where he's going here skip down one bullet point to number four the commingling of assets That is simply taking customer funds and using them without their discretion without their knowledge without their permission Using them to make bets leverage bets all kinds of things and this just continues to get absolutely worse the absent of audited or reliable financial statements and One other point here. He goes into his objectives and things like that He doesn't make any comments now during the he doesn't make any comments in his opening statement Regarding and he says he doesn't want to regarding any previous comments that Sam Bankman freed have said in his countless interviews He does go on to say though that again. He references the (13/23)

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commingling of assets and then he touches on the FTX Bankruptcy and the FTX us now to bring everybody up to speed quickly here Sam Bankman freed has continued to go on and say that bankruptcy was a bad idea Right after he did it and that the FTX us which is a separate entity opposed evidently was Fully funded meaning that he he said on more than one occasion that he doesn't understand why the FTX us customers Can't just be opened up to allow their withdrawal because all the money is there Getting back to the opening statement from John Jay as He wraps up somewhat of his statement He says questions have been raised as to why all the FTX group companies were included in the chapter 11 filing particularly the FTX us the answer is because FTX us was not operated independently of FTX.com Chapter 11 protection was necessary both to avoid a quote Bank or excuse me run on the bank at FTX us and to allow our team the time to identify and protect its assets Since the time of the filing I have (14/23)

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become more even more confident This was the correct decision as to books and records issues at FTX us and many relationship between FTX US and other FTX group companies become clear the point is This gentleman is absolutely saying that what Sam Bankman freed has been Saying it and he's been You can tell that he's ignoring his lawyers to go out and do these interviews and talk but he's taking some of their Advice or at least nibbles of it because he's trying to really walk the line with his language And he says stuff like well to my knowledge I wasn't aware of this or that was never my intention if that was going on I wasn't aware of this all this kind of ridiculous stuff this gentleman John Ray Has come right out and said that that's all BS Well, I'll continue to watch don't don't waste your time with the house and ways Services Committee Just I'll get some more info on that. I'll be looking at that later on today Because in Frank and I will talk about that tomorrow because I want to (15/23)

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see what some of the good questions are and how this goes because afterwards we have It's only going the news is only going to grow and grow around this Arrestment or excuse me the arrest Sam Bankman free being arrested and then getting back to the US that's going to be the big kicker there Lot the the important thing here the takeaway is is that I think the Bitcoin rally is because they are putting one of the biggest crypto frauds Hopefully in front of a trial very very soon and justice will be served This is ultimately great for the crypto space I totally agree with Frank Curzio when he said this was a black guy. This is a setback because I still don't believe and I don't think anybody does the Contagion effect the ripple effect of the FTX fallout is still going to hurt the industry meaning You know, it was it was just over a month ago that FTX Went into bankruptcy Sam Bankman freed Resigned and then you had the you had some bankruptcies and you have all these other companies that (16/23)

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are worried now There's rumors about the finance exchange Possibly facing Department of Justice charges for anti-money anti-money laundering laws. I I simply I think the worst is passed in the FTX debacle for crypto But I don't think the pain is over and it's just very impressive to me to see bitcoins resilience and trade You know Bitcoin was around 20 21 thousand when the whole FTX debacle happened It plunged quickly to around the 15 and I'm being general here because I don't have the exact prices Bitcoin is 24-7 and it's extremely volatile But for it to go down to around the fifteen thousand dollar level and now on not only the news of the better than expected CPI data but what I believe is great for the industry in the fact that we are putting a criminal behind bars hopefully soon is why the crypto space is rallying because again as you weed out the bad actors and the let's see you weed out the bad actors and the remaining players are If they haven't been doing it the right way (17/23)

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they're going to be forced to as regulation comes down But now it's not it's not an unknown anymore in my opinion on regulation It's it's definitely a with when not if and I think that a lot of people are going to be making decisions Over the past month and from here forward in the space on that and I I think that's just ultimately a great idea for the space because You can make it through frauds Wall Street is not Uninvestable because of Bernie Madoff's and in runs of the world doctors, you know lawyers every profession servicemen Everybody has their own con artist It just you know, just terrible people for lack of a better word and just you know frauds That doesn't mean that the entire industry is bad what is bad for the entire industry is when you don't have Those people brought to justice or punished for their wrongdoing and that's what gives the ultimate space or excuse me the space the ultimate Confidence and you still have individuals that are interested in crypto you still have (18/23)

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institutions that are huge You still have an international play adoption is still continuing to go up as Frank talks about innovation and Development is huge and ripe in this space even as prices crater This is just a business cycle and a new newer asset class of highs and lows So if you're if you're a short-term investor, enjoy the trading it's going to be wildly volatile I hope you guys are all ringing the cash register and making money if you're a longer-term investor I would just continue to buy over time as you can in increments and know that this is going to be a very very volatile ride Just a few minutes left here, I'll keep things a little bit shorter until I wait for the Frank Curzio to get back I do want to highlight on energy because I have been an energy bull and I know that sometimes I talk about it too much but I want to just give you an update because China continues to hint at the reopening and lack some of the COVID rules and Regulations or restrictions I should say (19/23)

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and that is bowing well for the energy markets oil is rallying 2% again today Everything is higher because you have algorithms and everybody shortcovering and everybody's gonna live for the day Oil is up over 2% WTI the Brent International crude is up over 2% to almost $80 a barrel and natural gas is up almost 6% On the day after a rallying hard the last few days You have so much going on in the energy space and Frank and I talked about this last week briefly and we'll pick it Up a little bit more about this huge discrepancy between The strong performance in oil stocks and the terrible performance and the price of oil per barrel and we talked that basically the XLE the energy ETF For oil producers was near a 52 week high for the first time at when oil was near a 52 week low for the first time since 2006 I Personally think that because of China reopening is only a matter of when not if There's a lot of rumors and headlines continuing to be around China and Taiwan They're only going to (20/23)

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cause more volatility in the oil markets We are only a week in a day into new sanctions on the Russian oil in the shipping Shipping sector, excuse me, and we are only a couple months away February which is my birthday month just as a heads up for everybody be Before more sanctions go on on refined products and different things My point to all this is you have energy stocks holding up excellent as oil pulls back If you think the next move in oil is from for WTI West Texas and intermediate is from around 7450 which is where it is right now down to the 60s then you want to look to lighten up everything However, if you think that all the volatility the tight supply and demand efficiency or effectiveness we have right now coupled with everything else geopolitically If you think that that is all bullish as I do I think the next leg higher is back towards the $90 level which means oil stocks are going to either level out and continue higher Or continue higher from here I couldn't be more (21/23)

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bullish on this space and natural gas and I want to talk to Frank in more detail about some other Natural gas plays one has a huge NFL owner involved in that's gonna be a quick Google search The stock has pulled back and yet they look like they're in excellent financial shape So want to tease that a little bit. Maybe we can talk about that tomorrow on Wednesday's podcast But today I want everybody to be happy I want everybody to listen to the two great songs that I pointed out the money song by Pink Floyd and then there ain't no Good chain gang by Waylon Jennings and Johnny Cash. Those are the two major themes today Frank will be back all day tomorrow, and I can't wait until then Cheers Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your (22/23)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Powell is lying about the Fed's inflation target.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main Made a great decision to join us on the Wall Street unplugged podcast for this Thursday, December 15th I'm your guest host Daniel Creech research analyst here at Curzio research. Yes I'm the one filling in for and working belong alongside the one and only Frank Curzio Who is out of the office on a personal matter right now and because of other Scheduling conflicts. I'm actually recording this later on Wednesday. So we're gonna peer into the future but have no fear I have a couple of very important topics. I want to break down for you the Federal Reserve meeting was today and the Fed came out raised interest rates and then Fed chair Jerome Powell's Q&A that followed I took several notes I took the time and effort to listen to that so you don't have to and you can just catch the cliff note (1/23)

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version I'll keep you up to date and let you know what stood out to me on that and then secondly there was Earlier this week. There was a hearing with the now current CEO of FTX talking about the mismanagement and for lack of a better word failure on FTX and why but on Wednesday there was a banking housing and urban affairs Committee hearing Titled crypto crash why the FTX bubble burst and the harm to consumers. I'm going to go over that I I looked at the I watched the video the recording because it was actually on at a different time when Frank and I were doing the podcast For earlier this week But I want to highlight a couple of the witnesses there a couple of the back and forth on the politician side that It was very similar to the first FTX hearing But anyway, I'll share with you what stood out on that kind of a macro and big picture item there if you listen to our Wednesday episode of Wall Street unplugged where Frank and I were going back and forth about the upcoming Fed meeting (2/23)

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We basically didn't expect anything out of the ordinary We thought that they was gonna that the Fed would raise at 50 basis points That is a step down from the 75 basis points. They've done several times in a row. That's exactly what happened the market reacted The market sold off so I was taking notes at this and The market was up. I'm just saying the Dow was up over 200 some points Nasdaq and S&P as well all up and then as soon as the Announcement for the rate hike came in markets sold off just in a straight line So we went from up over 200 on the Dow to down over a hundred I believe very very quickly Then to start let's see here so Pals Q&A started and the Dow was down 117 points Nasdaq was down 70 and the S&P down 20 when he took a question about About over halfway through the Q&A the Dow went down to over 300 the Nasdaq down 150 and the S&P down over 40 so things kept selling off as he was answering questions I'll get to that in just a second but then Because Frank and I called (3/23)

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this it was going to be a traders market and if you're going to look at this the only way to look at this is in the short term stuff because it really Nothing that fed nothing the Fed did today in raising interest rates or yesterday. Excuse me Changes the outlook for the markets over the next several months. This is all just Right before the holidays tight trading sessions a lot of just traders mentality and if you want to play that game, that's fine But most individual investors that aren't short term and I mean short term almost day traders can can kind of ignore this in the sense of Making I don't want a lot of people to put a lot of effort behind The day-to-day headlines because I'd rather you focus on the macro picture just because it's easier not to get It's easier that way to keep emotions out of it out of investing And it's easier to not get tossed around and then get frustrated on losing small losing positions because you're trying to basically time or trade The market which (4/23)

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is very very difficult for individuals that only leads to more frustration moving to the sidelines Essentially throwing in the towel and then you're going to miss out on massive market rallies to the up and downside Downside what you can do through money flow trader and buying puts long dated puts on on stocks that are going to struggle over the next six to twelve months and then on the long side holding Your core quality assets that you want to hold through even recessions and downtimes because Just because market indices go down as a whole doesn't mean every single stock is going to go down We'll do our best to research and find those get them into our newsletters The 50 basis points did not come as a shock The reason the market sold off right after the announcement was made was not because the 50 basis point hike it was because the Federal funds rate projection now, this is the projection of the federal funds rate, which they're raising now to a higher they the federal board the the (5/23)

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people would be Pow, excuse me. I lost my thought there pal and the other Fed governors put out projections and in September So I'm going back a month in September the 2023 for next year Federal funds rate projection was between four point four and four point nine Now why is that important? Well, because Just after this 50 basis point raise we're now at four point two five to pour four point five That's where the current federal funds rate is. So when they bumped it up 50 basis points. We're now at four to five to four fifty That's right in between The September projections for next year now the reason the market sold off is because The Fed raised those projections for 2023 to now be between five point one and five point four percent That's a knee-jerk reaction to sell because as Frank has been talking about for quite some time now This is starting to make other investors in my opinion realize that a pause is not a pivot So the slowing the pace of rates is one thing then that's kind of (6/23)

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step one. That's where we are right now You're lowering the pace of rate hikes. Step two is going to be to Paul's Now we're not hiking rates any further. We're gonna hold as is and We know based on what Jerome Powell said they're gonna hike at their next meeting in February and probably again in March because they got to get this Federal funds rate higher it's going to over five percent Step two is when you stop raising rates altogether again. That's not cutting. That's just pausing Then you have to figure out well How long do we keep rates there? until we absolutely know inflation is under control and then step three is going to be The big pivot word that everybody's talking about and when will the Fed start cutting rates? No doubt that will absolutely be a huge bullish signal for markets and prices to move much much higher We will want to get in and get investors in before that pivot, but we are a long way off I'll get to that question in just a second But to just bring you back to (7/23)

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scope the Fed did exactly what they were going to do outside Or excuse me with raising interest rates the market got nervous a little bit on the higher Fed funds rate projection and then we moved to the Q&A and there was For the most part there wasn't much there in my opinion on it Mr. Powell came out and you know pulled the heartstrings and talks about how he knows and how he feels and he understands how Difficult high inflation can hurt different families. Obviously. Those are the poorest conditions and us little guys down on the ladder and Then he said we raised by 50 basis points But here's what here's the biggest thing he stuck to in my opinion and I totally think this is going to change in the future So right now I have egg on my face I look ridiculous because I have said for some time that Eventually, the Federal Reserve will have to lower its inflation target or excuse me It will have to raise its inflation target from the current 2% to something higher I don't know if that'll (8/23)

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be three or three and five three and a half percent I just don't think they're gonna have the wherewithal to continue down the path to get inflation from its current run rate as of This earlier this week running over 7% down to 2% anytime soon But in his defense, mr. Powell stuck to his guns and he said we are sticking with the 2% inflation goal and It's not going higher and he so in one of the greatest questions there was a couple questions on the pace of rate hikes and Powell came out and said listen were I'm not concerned about how high the pace hikes are now. It's not the rate of pace at rate increases It's simply where do we get? What level do we get to now? And how long do we stay there? he was asked about reevaluating the inflation target above 2% and I'm I was taking quick notes here. I'm paraphrasing here. I don't want this to sound like a direct quote However, I'm capturing the most important thing of what he was saying here He pointed to the fact that changing inflation (9/23)

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Isn't something they the Fed the board governors are thinking about and aren't going to think about it He says it's not the time to think about it right now maybe then he straddled the fence a little bit He says maybe in the longer run. It's a longer run project at some point He says however, but now not considering it and won't consider under any circumstances until inflation is heading towards the 2% I Was very surprised personally. I was very surprised that the market didn't absolutely sell off on that news. I don't know How he could have been more blunt or more bearish Given the fact that There's already been some rumors around there and again, and I totally think that he will change his mind at some point in the future I don't think you're going to be able to put up with the Crashes that will occur the slowdown in GDP the slowdown in absolutely everything economical if you continue raising rates keeping them much much higher than In the short term keeping them very high without (10/23)

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changing your inflation goal that That was my big takeaway that question and then there's always a question on so he says hey We're sticking to our 2% inflation target We're gonna keep raising rates and hold rates until we know and we have months of data more than one month reading So think about that in terms of how long it takes So you're talking at least into the first quarter through March of next year at least To try to figure out this and then at least another six months from there Just trying to give you a perspective on how to think about these markets going forward. There's always a question about unemployment and Mr. Powell has been honest saying hey employment needs to go up. That's how you destroy demand you you you want to see a slower economic slower economy higher Unemployment because that shows inflation is going to come down And the question about hey Depending on different projections you look at that means that over a million people or more are gonna be projected to (11/23)

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lose their money How do you excuse me lose their job? How do you feel about that? How do you balance that as you try to guide this economy into a soft landing and avoid recession and mr. Powell? I have to give him credit again I'm not one to quick to do that because I I Point to the Fed and how ridiculous they are for the majority of as they should be But I will give credit where credit is due he's he stuck to his guns once again on his hawkish tone And he said listen there's worse pain Than just unemployment and the worst pain would be failing to act and fight inflation He says unfortunately a softening labor market is just part of it and again. I'm paraphrasing here He says I wish there was a less painful way But there isn't higher unemployment is just something you're going to have to prepare and deal with as the Fed continues to fight inflation That's a big deal as well because again that's telling the market. What are we doing? We're gonna keep raising rates and If you think (12/23)

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they're pivoting anytime soon You're absolutely crazy as Frank was saying Frank would say you're insane to think they're gonna cut rates next year and you're insane for thinking earnings are gonna remain Elevated or projected to be next year. I'll touch on that in just a second the last point that really stood out to me on this was He talked about Three buckets of inflation Mr. Powell did and he talked about how there's goods inflation Which is the supply chains and you know demand has to ease on goods and services and things and he says we're seeing some strong Some some strong headway there meaning meaning that supply chains are getting easier Demand is softening a little bit for these types of goods and services for goods inflation number two He pointed to housing services He did point out that rents are still high and are gonna remain high. He said that rents that are expiring and Renew into higher markets, but new leases are actually coming down So that's a positive for them and (13/23)

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he's telling you what you're thinking So I want you to think and Frank and I'll discuss this going forward and we'll touch on this But just for the next inflation data Next month when the CPI comes out for December You want to be paying attention to this things like this and then he said the third bucket that he's looking at or the Fed is looking at is non housing related core services and That's where you get into the labor market and wages rising and that will take a long time to kind of work its way through the economy the case in point here is that I Was surprised the markets didn't soul off sell off even harder. They only you know They were teeter-tottering they were up over 250 on the Dow down over 100 back to flat and then down over 200 into the close But the investor takeaway for me is that unless you're a day trader you could ignore all this Next year is going to be a very difficult time for market indices Market analysts as Frank talked about are still expecting record (14/23)

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earnings strong earnings growth Yet the Fed is telling you they are not changing their projections. They're not changing their path. They're not changing their tone They're actually raising how high the federal funds rate will be into next year versus just a month ago and one last thing Jerome Powell talked about during this press conference was that Next meeting which is in February. They could also raise the federal funds rate again So they raised the projections from September and they've done this in the past But it's going to take it's going to cause a shock to the market every time because you can just feel it The market is trying to grasp onto this pause and pivot mentality because most people were bullish and that's okay Stocks go up most of the time However, we're in a period now that high inflation high interest rates to where we're gonna have a rocky Rocky road ahead for for less pun intended alright So Frank and I we could take a quick victory lap on that We'll talk about (15/23)

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that next week markets sold off gave up their gains pow didn't really say anything abnormal outside of Sticking it to me because he's probably Trolling me listening to this podcast and since I believe they're gonna raise above the 2% target inflation at some point He came out to reiterate that they are not Topic number two the United States Senate Committee on banking housing and urban affairs crypto topic The witnesses and like I said, I love this. I love the title here crypto crash why The FTX bubble burst in the harm to consumers The witnesses I only recognize one of these names and I'm sure you do as well Witnesses were professor Hillary J. Allen who's an American University Washington College of Law Mr. Kevin O'Leary, who's an investor? this Jennifer J. Shkolp Director of finance regulation studies Center for monetary and financial alternatives Cato Institute and mr. Ben McKenzie shrink shrink on Who is an actor in author? This was kind of split mr. Ben was very anti crypto in his (16/23)

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opening statements as well as every other question He fielded Kevin O'Leary was your most pro Kevin O'Leary is mr. Wonderful as he calls himself He's on Shark Tank, which is how I recognize him and I would guess most of you guys do Mr. O'Leary made one thing perfectly clear to me today and that's he's still he's still Grasping for that paid spokesman as an FTX Partner and spokesman he admitted to that. He says he lost millions of dollars that basically they were paying him. I Want to keep my personal feelings aside from here But there was a couple times in the hearing that they brought up finance and basically what What I'm thinking through is mr O'Leary is either got a good plan to get some of his money back and turn on Sam Bankman freed or he's just upset and has this burn it down mentality because He claims after talking to Sam Bankman freed a Post or excuse me in between the time the FTX was collapsing and when he Sam got arrested that basically Sam Bankman freed had to buy back a (17/23)

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bunch of the tokens or buy out CZ who runs by Nance and That was for a huge premium it was three or four billion dollars in cash and that calls mr. O'Leary in my opinion led the conversation to believe that CZ was being a bad guy and a tough partner and Sam had to buy him out and that's really what got the liquidity crunch happening and That's what caused the demise of FTX The big issue with that is that all glosses over the fact that you had a guy based on the current CEO of FTX John J. Ray the third Who oversaw the Enron? bankruptcy Has flat-out come out and said that there was commingling of funds and just the old-fashioned bribery fraud Embezzlement, whatever you want to call it that all happened a day earlier than this hearing and yet That all got overlooked the commingling of funds now. This is just in this one aspect of mr. O'Leary And that's why I make the joke about him still being a paid spokesman for FTX even while it's in bankruptcy Most of the questions from The our (18/23)

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politicians were either they were so anti crypto and we want to prove that regulation Could have stopped this bankruptcy why this is just the beginning and we're gonna see a lot more of this or The politicians that are pro crypto and made a clear point to say listen This is fraud and we have to separate just a fraud and a criminal or alleged fraud and alleged criminal From digital currencies because it's a software it's programmable and by definition technology programs are not fraudulent there was a decent argument made by certain sides of politicians to say listen you have to separate this and Good things can be used for good or bad. So programs can be used for good or bad Power can be used for good or bad and I thought mr. O'Leary made one good point when senator senator Elizabeth Warren was talking about and in several of them cite crypto is fraud and only used by terrorists and gangsters and all this kind Of stuff which is hilarious to me Real quick when you when that is your (19/23)

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lead-in argument. I Just think that that shows that you have a weak hand and you want to distract and not talk about anything else like the US dollar Because you're anti crypto politicians We're talking about how this is trying to take on the US dollar dethrone the US dollar and how that was a problem for national Security Elizabeth Warner was pointing out how it's just used by fraudsters and criminals and Kevin O'Leary made a great point to say listen The US dollar is used by fraud and stuff as well. That doesn't mean that That the US dollar is is worthless. There's plenty other reasons to make an argument for that But there's a hell of a military power standing behind it to counter argue that All in all I didn't think that this had much merit I thought that the other hearing with the current CEO of FTX now was a little bit better just because it shed more light on It these professors and or authors they had some good insight like I said, they make good arguments about why they hate (20/23)

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crypto why they think it's dangerous and The other two in my opinion did a good job of saying listen you got to separate this fraud from From the person versus the product What's impressive to me over this is that Bitcoin continues to hang around the seven thousand five hundred dollar level? Yesterday it popped up to almost 1800 even during the hearing and then it sold off just a little bit but The takeaway here is all of this washing out is great news for the long term again I don't want to get too much into that because I talked about this on Tuesday's podcast but as investors see stuff Illegal stuff or shady stuff being done and those people being punished Yes, they could decide to stay out on the sidelines forever and right off the sector But a lot of people I think are going to continue to be interested in it They're gonna continue to ask the questions about what it is. Why are other people interested in it? Why does it have value? why do other people think it has value and If (21/23)

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there's more coming regulation and you're gonna take bad guys out and bad players get just it or get served what they deserve That's just ultimately a good thing All right little shorter podcast again. We were up against some time constraints. I wanted to try to brief you Hopefully I made that entertaining This is kind of some boring stuff, but there is a lot of moving parts The volatility in the market is something to keep your eye on but again going into next year Not that you're not going to hear about or hear from us much more But just keep your mindset on everything you're hearing through now I would even say January is all going to be short-term Nothing has changed for the next six months or longer on why there's going to be a lot of headwinds as inflation and interest rates remain higher than over the last decade and we're gonna have Just a wild roller coaster ride But Frank and I will be here to navigate help you guys make money and keep your sanity and also entertain you as (22/23)

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well I hope you guys have a wonderful wonderful weekend. We'll catch you next week Cheers Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast remember your money and your responsibility (23/23)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Three industry titans on inflation… and future market returns.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream How's it going out there? It's Tuesday January 18th, and you're listening to the Wall Street unplugged podcast Normally hosted by Frank Curzio, but once again, he is traveling boots on the ground research Meetings of minds pulling of strings deal-making is going on And in his place today once again Hi Daniel Creech senior analyst here at Curzio research and filling in for him behind the mic for at least today and tomorrow We'll see how the schedule unfolds, but I'm excited to do this again I had a great time a couple weeks ago while Frank was in Las Vegas at the Consumer Electronics Show and We're gonna have a lot of fun today Normally Frank hosts the Wall Street unplugged every Tuesday Wednesdays and Thursdays Tuesdays are his monologue, which I'll do today and I don't know if he has a (1/23)

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guest lined up So just kind of bear with us a lot of exciting stuff a lot of moving parts going around here To kick off the new year and we'll all get through it together Earning season. Well, I gotta say I love having a rough outline to cover the podcast. I love the prep work I love doing everything about this and then you come to work you get here early you get all your ducks in a row and Of course fun events happen life happens Markets are down yields are going higher with this constant Inflationary mindset and the Fed hiking Projected hiking coming bill Ackman was out with a good tweet. I'll cover in just a minute But Microsoft takes the cake today Microsoft announces a huge deal all cash to buy Activision Blizzard for somewhere around give or take a 40% premium to closing its recent closing price Talk about just highlighting the metaverse highlighting gaming Macro play and writing checks. I think they're spending around 70 billion ba ba ba billion Just gonna write a check so lots (2/23)

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to talk about earning season Delta Airlines earning seasons well underway the big banks are reporting Goldman Sachs reported this morning JP Morgan reported last week They even noted of strong consumers strong conditions their results were positive Goldman missed on earnings per share, but I think beat on revenues My point is they were they were solid in general because when you're comparing these to last year or previous periods Remember comparable sales comps you want to put everything in context. So Hey, we're doing great over here compared to what well for the airlines for Delta You're not going to compare earnings or losses to the 2020 year because the corona virus locked down everything Nobody was flying so that's basically a wash what I like about Delta is they are comparing to 2019 to try to give investors and everybody the perspective the context of How they're performing given the environment lots of risk out there, of course, but Delta came out JP Morgan Everybody's talking (3/23)

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about inflation higher cost across the board But JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs's comps were against very solid quarters very high earnings Those are fluctuating a little bit JP Morgan drops sold off after earnings last week Goldman's down roughly four or five percent Thesis is still intact for Curzio research advisory members up big on Goldman Sachs. That's just a great bank I'll sift and go through the details but overall in a higher higher interest rate environment Yeah, trading might be tough But overall that thesis and that juggernaut is is probably going to continue to be a solid solid place for investment capital Switching gears to the airlines real quickly because I want to help continue to paint the picture unfold the thesis of The recovery trade as we look past the variance and you know this quote-unquote back to normal back to 2019 issue with comments and perspectives from the CEOs who are behind all this and The reason this is important is because this narrative as the (4/23)

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narrative shifts and the majority of people or businesses and or politicians move away from lockdowns to Open economies. That's just good for everybody and I want to explain that and kind of continue on that thesis So Delta reported earnings not going to get into those details. I want to focus on what the CEO said on He did an interview with CNBC afterwards and then a few conference call transcript quotes, but first on CNBC Ed Bastian says the worst is behind the airlines Regarding impact operations due to Omnicron if you remember a few weeks ago when Omnicron really started to hit the headlines and spread and it continues to I'm not I'm not I'm not ignoring anything there the case count and all kinds of stuff is continuing to move higher the point here is they are saying that flight cancer Delta saying that flight cancellations are way down over the last few weeks and Get this and this is just great for this is just positive news in general 8,000 staff members were infected. He's (5/23)

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referring to Omnicron But all of them are fine and there were no health issues. That's wonderful Just just in general like I said for For humans for the economy for everything that that's a great stat And I'm that's positive to hear the holiday season was the busiest travel period in two years again put everything in context What are your comparables to? That makes sense because the last couple years with 20 starting in 2020 have been volatile as can be after the you know Nobody was flying in 2020 Bookings continue to remain robust because people know Omnicron is not a threat to them That is a hell of a powerful statement from the CEO of Delta again. What's driving his Thesis in results. He's looking at the bookings He's looking about the business the services that he provides and how the customers are responding And he says the company is prepared for higher oil oil prices Regular listeners know that I've been bullish on oil Frank has been to as Inflation continues I expect (6/23)

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commodities and oil to continue higher oil today is roughly It's closer to $85 a barrel than it is 84. That's up You know, it's it's been a steady track higher. But the point here is I don't want to get off on a rabbit trail I'm sorry Delta Airlines These are huge hugely positive comments for the economy in general as far as an open versus closed standpoint and as far as people's perspectives and Feelings towards fear of going out and doing something contributing ie buying goods and services Providing goods and services the ability to do that are Trending in the right direction from that standpoint a couple of conference call bullet points here He believes that again. This is referring to the CEO or just management believes given the high trans Transability in low severity of Omnicron that the virus is quote likely to mark a shift in COVID-19 from a panic to an ordinary seasonal flu. How do you play this out? Why am I going through this macro trend because airlines is one way to play (7/23)

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it because they were so hurt and so beaten up And they the industry is not going anywhere and you can benefit as the recovery of this recovery to normal From a seasonal flu standpoint if that mindset is not going to hinder a lot of operations. That's a positive Again, we've talked about the pharmaceutical industry and how you can have exposure to that Pfizer has long been the low-hanging fruit in my opinion on how to do this and how you go from The narrative of curing and eliminating the virus to treating it. So remember we've had we've had this This direction or this conversation about Getting rid of it completely Shutting down the virus not shutting down the country to more of hey We're gonna have to learn to live with this and we're gonna treat this so Pfizer's Treatments different pharmaceutical companies. Like I said Pfizer's just the lowest hanging fruit on that But this is again from Delta which is a positive thing. That's what he is saying. Okay, you can agree you can disagree (8/23)

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That's what he's saying based on the data. He's looking at from his business he couple more here expects the recovery Okay expects rates of recovery step down in January because they did have some some staffing issues and all that kind of stuff But January to February is going to be about 70% of 2019 levels Or nowhere near that's a big deal from you know, if you want to compare. Hey, when are we getting back to 2019? Well, he's projecting going forward and this is over bookings and different things and roughly 70% We're not there yet which is the thesis that Frank had behind Delta as we get back there Delta is going to be able to cut costs manage that business and be profitable and And reward shareholders, of course, so I'm the con variant has greatly impact operations again we're looking in the rear view mirror, so he's talking about why they expect a small dip and The first quarter here and then they'll get through that So that's just a little bit of boy. This is a terrible pun, but (9/23)

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a little bit of turbulence if you will but to recap The CEO coming out and having very positive Comments on his staff and I don't want anybody to get affected with anything or ever feel bad But I'm glad to hear that several thousand eight thousand were infected and there were no health issues there So that that's a positive. Hopefully that is a domino effect and we start seeing that more and more across Corporates corporations across staffing across all goods and services. That's just a real positive thing so that That thesis continues to play out and that's a positive for everybody Continuing on with CEOs. I Want to switch gears this morning Black rock Larry Fink black rock the They got to be the largest huge investment manager Just absolute juggernaut of 10 trillion ish assets under management He was on CNBC and he was talking about He expects higher inflation and aggressive Fed and I'm gonna use this as a segue to something that Bill Ackman tweeted about And I think is a is worth (10/23)

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noting because as we get closer to Fed meetings You're gonna continue to see volatility like we are today and like we have all year So Larry Fink Said a couple bullet points here. Some of the inflation was created by sustainability measures increasing wages are a blessing But the question is can companies pass on wages and maintain margins? So just like airlines if you're only operating at 70% capacity give or take here or there Are you able to cut it off cost? Are you able to charge? Do you have enough pricing power for those customers that you are serving to strengthen your bottom line? To manage your business to grow your business to reward shareholders This is something that everybody is going to have to continue to deal with This is the new normal and from an investor standpoint I want you to think about the new normal and how those businesses that you're investing in you're buying a piece of a business How is that going to operate in not only the current environment that we're (11/23)

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anticipating and seeing rising interest rates and higher costs But then to sustain through that period where you have that as a constant He believes the US so so quickly that pricing power is important because Low hanging fruit McDonald's you could argue has great pricing power. They can The the one here on the island that I go to every once in a while, you know I try to do everything in moderation You see the constant switching of deals. It was two for four now. It's buy one get one I'm talking about their breakfast which I am I'm so biased and think McDonald's has amazing breakfast And I had a friend of mine tell me it wasn't as bad as I thought how much more general can you get for? Justification so I said oh, well, it's not that bad So how that'll affect will companies be able to pass on wages and maintain margins That's a big that's a big red flag to watch going forward or a big signal Larry also believes the US will have higher inflation over the next year and an aggressive Fed (12/23)

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over the next two years now He's counting You know put that in context. That's a big theme today. He's counting this year and next year. So 2022 2023 an aggressive Fed hold that thought In Two more points from him quickly before I get on to the Fed. He thinks earnings will surprise to the upside That's a positive He believes deficits matter Okay, and he thinks stock market gains will be muted going forward now I'm just looking at the bullet points here on one of our on one of our services So I'll dig into more of this and continue to update you but that's an important thing because you want to learn Or excuse me, I don't I don't want to sound like a know-it-all you want to think about the expectations and How those are gonna play out in reality and let me let me explain that I don't feel like I'm doing this Just as Frank likes to talk about markets hate uncertainty So if you have high expectations going into an earning season and they come in lower than expectations You're gonna see (13/23)

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more volatility because it's a shock. It's an all-factor It was something that wasn't prepared for by investors. It took them by surprise That is something you need to constantly think about and so here you have the largest asset manager CEO talking about hey Your expectations going forward ought to be yeah tamed down. We've had a great couple years I highlighted a couple weeks ago or Frank and I did hell last year. The S&P 500 was up almost 30% Those are much higher than your traditional 10% averages over a long time or eight and a half percent depending on what kind of how far you want to go back The 20 the 30 year, you know long-term compounding of wealth So expectations going forward need to be tamed. I mean need to be lowered that all Transitions or translates into the reality of volatility and possibly lower prices lower asset prices across Markets across the you know, the Dow the S&P the Russell the Nasdaq So keep keep that in mind going forward an aggressive Fed over the next (14/23)

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two years Bill Ackman has come out and he tweeted. I believe it was a few days ago. Today's the 18th I think this was from the 15th. Yes, and he says While it has become conventional wisdom that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three to four times this year to mitigate inflation The market expects 25 basis point increase in increments the unresolved elephant in the room is the loss of the feds perceived credibility as Inflation fighter and whether three or four would be enough I'm gonna take a break here from his tweet. So the perceived credibility because we've talked extensively as the Fed chair Jerome Powell does his press conferences and updates and Testimonies About how he is trying to guide This economy about how he's trying to be transparent and be Or to communicate with the market ie investors because like I say he watches the market and they don't want to cause a market crash And nobody does I get that I'm not I'm not and I'm not saying he should or or whatever (15/23)

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I'm simply saying that I believe that he watches asset prices. He's trying to manage the economy's trying to manage everything The perceived credibility is when he Frank talked about when they did a complete 180 when he threw away the transitory Inflation remarks and said hey, it's gonna be here. It's here to stay essentially. That was a couple of months ago Frank thinks that they're gonna hike even more than expected. So four or more and If you remember our conversation a few weeks ago This is a great point and also reiterated by Bill Ackman. You don't have to do the 25 Basis point increments you can do 50 you can do anything and in reality to an extent you can say hey, let's raise it XYZ let's bump it by 1% now. I'm being a little silly there just to prove a point Bill Ackman's point is hey, this would Give you a lot of credibility. It would shock the market. So it would be painful and he even highlights that in One of his tweets because it was it was a couple two or three tweets (16/23)

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What kind of pain would you see there? Well, you would definitely see The easiest thing to think about would be markets would swoosh lower You would have a quick drawdown while everybody basically hits the sell button first and then ask questions later but just like he pivoted and Shocked a little bit with or shocked a lot Excuse me with the transitory to more constant inflation If he did come out in say March or whatever when the first Fed meeting That Goldman Sachs and other banks have pulled forward If he comes out and does that That would be a buying opportunity in certain sectors where inflation remember that's not going to fix anything So if the market goes down 3% from here in general, you're gonna have a lot of stocks that are down significantly more than that If those stocks are in certain sectors commodities Goods Different services different products those companies have pricing power Those are going to be excellent opportunities to look at for investors to buy up shares So (17/23)

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just like Larry Fink is telling you to kind of tame your expectations You're not going to get 20 to 30 percent a year like we have in the past or at least the last few years ie last year Those gains he believes are going to be muted Couple that with Ackman calling for a shock and all from the Federal Reserve just going to increase all the volatility one more thing on Larry Fink's comments and Just to kind of couple that and show you how I'm trying to put this puzzle together there was a solid report out of Bank of America last week and They were giving their take on believing like cash is basically going to outperform the market There's going to be 2022 is going to be a down year for equities meaning it's not going to be positive all now that doesn't mean it could be Down 10% or 20% that simply means that they don't believe it's going to have a positive return For asset allocation they point out that They believe that cash and can outperform equities, which is rare It's just twice in (18/23)

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the past 30 years, which was 1994 and 2018 were both Fed shock years But there was this long period of stagflation Where you have you know constant or leveling off of wages and much higher prices So any wage increases are offset by higher prices, which doesn't do consumers any good That era and I know numbers are hard to follow so I apologize, but they're just pointing out that hey from 1966 to 1981 cash outperformed stocks and credit 7 out of 16 years The point is they're thinking hey history doesn't repeat itself But it can rhyme and if you have these negative years these Fed shocks Which is kind of what Ackerman is talking about or what Frank has been talking about saying Hey, if they do surprise like the transitory issue deal that's going to cause significant volatility and those prices are going to move lower Not saying sell everything go all to cash I'm just pointing this out to try to build the environment put in context of what we're in now and what we're going Through this (19/23)

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year and in the next as we have higher prices across the board hopefully, hopefully that makes sense from a macro macro level and Finally, I want to just discuss This The Microsoft is a great deal in the sense of it shows you that hey the world continues to move forward There's a ton of volatility Activision Blizzard was going through a lot of bad press a lot of investigations on corporate not accountability, but Environment Accountabilities in there. I don't mean to throw that away but a lot of investigations on management and in corporate style and the Environment of working there and it's comfortable. Is it fair and all that kind of stuff? So their stock has been drifting lower Microsoft comes in and swoops it up with all this in higher interest rates with all of this noise going on with what the feds going to do Where are you going to see struggles with ebbs and flows of higher commodities? Consumer spending and they're buying they're looking long term and as investors you can take (20/23)

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away from that and think about that Hey, the world is not ending even if the market quote-unquote crashes the world you've been through market crashes before Unless the world ends You got to look for opportunity and you know, if the world ends then it doesn't matter that's a silly cliche But this is just a good macro perspective of saying. Hey, look at these largest corporations in the world They're looking through all this noise. They're still trying to find value. They're still planning on the future. They're still investing on the future Again, I don't want to get ahead of myself. I've just looked at several headlines as the the news has been breaking this morning You keep saying seeing references to the metaverse I'm gonna listen to some interviews coming up with Microsoft of gaming and Activision and put that together again, I'll talk more about that tomorrow But I do love the timing, you know, it's coming off of a holiday weekend. They're doing all this That's that's just good (21/23)

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stuff and I hope that that helps tie in from how to look through the noise and and don't be blindly bullish Just keep an open mind to opportunity because as prices move lower as volatility increases that increases the the the opportunity that increases the the ways to win the more ways to win and And as investors as stock pickers for us, we couldn't be You know, you don't like to go through painful times, but you want things to kind of trade on You know their own theses a rising tide lifts all boats So from our perspective, we'd rather be we'd rather want to shine and in a good environment We want the environment to where we can shine and provide value and that's what we're expecting and looking forward to All right, so just a few topics here a little shorter today, but that's typically my style Please send your feedback good and bad To me at Daniel at Curzio research.com. That's Daniel at Curzio research.com. I'm only doing the audio For for when I sit in with Frank, but continue to (22/23)

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follow him on Twitter Check out our Curzio research page our Curzio YouTube page. Also follow Frank on tik-tok Love building the social media presence there and appreciate all followers again all comments and everything we will We'll pick up tomorrow This has been great filling in and I hope you guys have a great rest of the day and we'll talk about a lot of Exciting events including some more stock ideas tomorrow Cheers Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money your responsibility (23/23)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - How Coinbase's $50 million fine clears the way for crypto growth.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream Happy New Year everybody Greetings folks welcome it is January 4th 2023 and you were listening to the Wall Street unplugged podcast Normally hosted by the one and only Frank Curzio However starting the new year Frank is out at the Consumer Electronics Show the CES Where he attends every year that they don't outlaw you for COVID restrictions Send Frank an email follow him on Twitter Tik-tok our Curzio research YouTube channel he will be Exploring all kinds and everything tech Interviews with different booths and companies trying out gadgets Regular listeners will remember he plays ping-pong against robots Uses underwater devices to swim quickly Has a lot of fun works works hard long hours, but it's Vegas can't feel sorry for him by going to Vegas for work I love that and I would like to (1/24)

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take a quick poll to start the new year Daniel Curzio research calm Daniel at Curzio Research calm how long Can you stay in Vegas for and not be miserable? the average answer that I get is a weekend or a long weekend a Handful of people can stay five days. Maybe seven days. I Am the outlier in this I think Vegas is the absolute most wonderful place Simply because it offers everything in an area meaning you can do or go watch amazing shows Or listening to a street band or somebody just with a guitar trying to make it you can go to the finest and most expensive luxurious dining Somewhere on the strip or in a high-rise casino Or you can go get fast food You can carry a cocktail or adult beverage anywhere you go. Obviously. I'm a big fan of those rules Obviously in moderation as well anyway, I Actually thought about moving to Vegas when I was out in Arizona But fate brought me to the island to podcast and to help individual investors in our gladiator like environment To close out the new (2/24)

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year. Well, actually programming note Frank at the CES. He's going to we're gonna catch up a little bit later today I will also be on tomorrow's podcast For Thursdays and because of programming schedules and Frank's taking some of the team to Vegas to record and get a lot of great Material at the CES. I'll be doing that a little earlier than normal however You will get it on regular scheduled time and I'll update you with what Frank is up to as of yesterday and today wandering around Las Vegas I'm gonna do a quick recap on 2022 in the stock market because there's some excellent I did a lot of reading over the break and there's some excellent articles Recently in the Wall Street Journal and I want to paint this picture of hey, here's what happened Everybody's already lived through 2022. It was a down year Etc, etc But going forward there's just an interesting narrative of optimism and that's okay. We're not we're not negative people just to be negative here But there's a lot of optimism (3/24)

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in the markets going forward and most of that's natural I'll get to that from fact set in a second. I just want you the individual investor To use the turning of the calendar to think through think about the next quarter in the next six months and the next year in steps because You don't want to be always Reactive and shocked about what's coming down the pike or pipe. However, you say that I heard that on the radio people going back and forth and getting it wrong and We want to use this investor sentiment I have I'm armed here with a whiteboard and some stack of papers here Hopefully this comes across great similar feedback Daniel at Curzio research comm and then a few more things to think about Over the next year so from the Wall Street Journal over the weekend stocks log worst year since 2008 you don't want to say 2008 that great financial crisis. Everybody remembers 2008 Stocks tumbled bonds were hit by the worst sell-off ever and crypto currencies were eviscerated The S&P fell 19% (4/24)

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for the year the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 8.8% and the Nasdaq all things tech The former wonder child of the stock market got hit by 33% Markets log their largest decline since 2008 the 10-year Treasury note which influences everything from mortgage rates to student debt climbed to 3.8 up from a 1.4 at the end of 2021 Now there was a couple of misunderstandings here leading to the market volatility and downturn Numero Uno was the Fed chair and Fed policy board Federal Reserve Board calling inflationary transitory which proved to be totally incorrect Now they're sticking to their guns of fighting it by all means necessary After Russians invasion of Ukraine Nearing the end of February and into March energy prices shot up over or in oil was around 130 a barrel briefly and While inflation and oil prices have subsided it remains stubbornly high 40-year highs The takeaway from this article here about stocks stocks logging the worst year since 2008 and they highlight some You know (5/24)

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in the markets going forward and most of that's natural I'll get to that from fact set in a second. I just want you the individual investor To use the turning of the calendar to think through think about the next quarter in the next six months and the next year in steps because You don't want to be always Reactive and shocked about what's coming down the pike or pipe. However, you say that I heard that on the radio people going back and forth and getting it wrong and We want to use this investor sentiment I have I'm armed here with a whiteboard and some stack of papers here Hopefully this comes across great similar feedback Daniel at Curzio research comm and then a few more things to think about Over the next year so from the Wall Street Journal over the weekend stocks log worst year since 2008 you don't want to say 2008 that great financial crisis. Everybody remembers 2008 Stocks tumbled bonds were hit by the worst sell-off ever and crypto currencies were eviscerated The S&P fell 19% (4/24)

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for the year the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 8.8% and the Nasdaq all things tech The former wonder child of the stock market got hit by 33% Markets log their largest decline since 2008 the 10-year Treasury note which influences everything from mortgage rates to student debt climbed to 3.8 up from a 1.4 at the end of 2021 Now there was a couple of misunderstandings here leading to the market volatility and downturn Numero Uno was the Fed chair and Fed policy board Federal Reserve Board calling inflationary transitory which proved to be totally incorrect Now they're sticking to their guns of fighting it by all means necessary After Russians invasion of Ukraine Nearing the end of February and into March energy prices shot up over or in oil was around 130 a barrel briefly and While inflation and oil prices have subsided it remains stubbornly high 40-year highs The takeaway from this article here about stocks stocks logging the worst year since 2008 and they highlight some You know (5/24)

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the fang stocks Apple Facebook now meta Amazon All getting crushed Tesla down over 60% Bitcoin down over 60% Bankruptcies throughout not to mention the FTX debacle. I'm not talking about that today The takeaway from this is that at the end of this article I've highlighted where it says bond traders are betting on the Fed Pivoting from raising rates to cutting them as early as next year meaning later on in 2023 and They're interviewing different people in Robert Pirelli Who's the head of global policy research at Piper Sadler He has a good point and saying at the moment neither the stock market nor corporate debt appears to be pricing in the possibility of prolonged pain Now why do I end in the takeaway is on the bond market investors betting on rate cuts coming as early as the end of this Year and nobody is bracing for prolonged pain It is by nature that we are optimists especially analyst stock market junkies, etc Everybody's more happy when prices go up versus down. The reason I (6/24)

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bring up this prolonged pain is because Frank and I had talked about and Frank did an excellent job at the end of last year talking about how earnings estimates for the market are still significantly high in fact set which is a great data research company as Of the 5th of December Facts that have the S&P earnings per share for 2023 at two hundred and thirty two and fifty three cents Let's just round down two hundred thirty two dollars. That would be an all-time record high It'd be a growth of a little bit over year over year However When you take into fact the easy money policies are over the feds continue to raise rates and tell you they're gonna keep raising rates about another percent we're between four four point two five and four point five zero at the Fed funds right now They're talking like they're gonna get that to five and a half. So another full percentage point higher and then keeping them there Something has to give you have the Fed that was telling you inflation was (7/24)

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transitory. They were wrong. They admitted that now They're telling you pedal to the metal to fight inflation at 40 year highs and they're not going to stop They're going to five and a half. They've hinted at Raising that high rate to a little higher than five and a half and I say they meaning different Fed members that speak Fed governors They're telling you now We're gonna keep raising interest rates for the short term and then keep them elevated for the rest of the year The market is betting on the difference this comes back to the old saying don't fight the Fed I'm simply pointing this big picture out to you to explain that the path of least resistance The easiest path for markets currently is lower That doesn't mean that it's tanking in the stock market's gonna go down 50% But that means that basically for the first quarter January February and March of this year You can go to sleep you can hang out you can chill Kick up your feet and relax everybody start the new year off in a (8/24)

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relaxed comfortable attitude Why do I point all this out? Because fact set is at 232 other estimates here Such as Bank of America Satori, which is run by Dan Niles. He was just on CNBC the other morning and Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan have come out with price targets now Frank has talked about he thinks the S&P 500 is going to be S&P 500 earnings are gonna be under 200 So instead of two hundred and thirty two dollars are gonna be under 200 or around 200 Bank of America has the S&P 500 ending at four thousand for 2023 It closed at 38 34. That's just a couple percent higher the reason I'm telling you this is because Bank of America and Goldman Sachs basically and JP Morgan Have price targets for the S&P right around the four thousand mark So let's round up and say that's five percent from current levels give or take That's over a 12 month period We're going to have lots of economic data jobs reports comes out this Friday Consumer price index we're gonna have inflation data all kinds of (9/24)

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data coming out over the next year obviously and the markets just gonna bounce around and Buy these guys and listen nobody's across the ball. You have to give them credit for making projections and predictions But consensus for those Wall Street banks are just four to five percent higher from current markets over a year's time And the reason I'm telling you to basically take the first month off is because the Fed meeting For 2023 the first Fed meeting is not until next month, so we have some January data We have to get through and there'll be some Fed speakers and comments and things like that that'll move markets But the next meeting isn't until February Big revisions and job data like we got as a Under-the-radar December 16th from the Philly Fed revising all the jobs from quarter to April May June period for everybody following along and That's so those the revised jobs are running at five six month lag time Yet everybody is just going to what continue traders are going to continue (10/24)

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to kick around Indices higher and lower until we get something of meat What can the individual investor do to take away all this or to prepare for all this is just understand that a ton of? Volatility is coming down the pike there. That is a good Earnings estimates in our opinion in my opinion are still too high. They're gonna look to be revised lower And that's okay that happens Frank's done an excellent job of talking about that continue to build cash Continue to look at quality and quality stocks and continue To look at money flow trader run by Genia turnover right here at Curzio research to not only protect yourself But to make a killing and to make Outsized returns in a very short amount of time off the volatility and downturns in the markets the So for the first quarter again, we have to wait for several things and going into Over the next year I want to see how something transitions or how the market waiting transitions From Tuesday, January 3rd Wall Street Journal The year-end (11/24)

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review and outlook section the front page are one for those of you following along with paper in hand They have a couple of really cool charts on the front page they have the S&P 500 sector waiting at the end of each year for 2022 and 2021 and They have the S&P 500 ranking by market value the top 20 companies at the end of each year again for 20 and 21 The most important thing here is to show the sector waiting Technology in 2021 was over 25% of the S&P 500 Now Obviously 25% is a significant amount that was in 2021 In fact by this graph you would guess it was closer to 30 than 25 So that's 2021 in 2022 around down technology went from around 30% to 25% That's the big dog obviously that's moving lower and that's understood right us into individual investors understand When the sector the tech sector the Nasdaq sector was down over 30% for 2022 When a lot of those companies are going to get hit It's based on market cap how big they are in waiting So therefore the waiting goes down as (12/24)

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those stocks and indices move lower Energy, which I've been extremely bullish on for a while now and will continue to be I'll talk more about that tomorrow Energy in 2021 was less than 5% will call it around 3% Gauging by this graph on the on the paper in 2021 energy made up around two and a half to three percent of the S&P 500 sector waiting Fast forward to the end of 2022 and that's just over 5% so about a hundred percent increase Yet you still have technology being significantly weighted and energy being significantly under weighted The number two spot is health care also dropped a little bit or excuse me health care gained from 2021 to 2022 Financials Did as well consumer discretionary? Dropped a little bit the big takeaway there is that even though energy has had a massive run up over 50% in 2022 there is still a lot of room for it to be weighted more into the S&P 500 those earnings are going to continue to be robust as prices stay elevated Versus previous prices over the last (13/24)

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three years and that is all very bullish for that sector Keep in mind we're going to see earnings estimates come down as a whole We're going to see a lot of volatility around What is a very tight market for? bank estimates and S&P 500 returns and We have to be Cautious around all data coming up over the next year The other reason or another reason I want to talk about taking the first quarter off is Because one of the big growth catalyst For markets is China reopening and getting over their zero COVID policy And they've done a lot of 180s in just the past couple weeks and This is a solid article also from yesterday's Wall Street Journal It says after three years of zero COVID economic disruption many Chinese businesses awoke to a happy new reality in December No more restrictions The world's second largest economy continues to be volatile around everything because they were just shutting down on any positive test a Manufacturer one of the manufacturers in the Shenzhen and Industrial (14/24)

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company said that 90% of his staff was sick over two week period in December going into January one Street vendor they they interview a couple of different businesses or business Manufacturers owners managers etc, and they all say the same thing Listen, this virus is making its way through China at a rapid pace and everybody seems to be getting sick Almost everybody at the same time, which is really causing a lot of disruptions in supply chains products, etc Not to mention you have to balance all that with economic demand Which is trending lower as inflation continues to be high and rates continue to be risen Rose rates continue to be Continued to be hiked by the Fed the what stood out to me in this article is COVID is keeping customers away from some businesses and districts a gentleman who sells rice noodles and One of the popular districts for workers and I'm being general here because I don't want to butcher all these names and be disrespectful This gentleman said delivery and (15/24)

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walk-in customers totaled about 90 on Wednesday. This is a couple weeks ago 90 and That was the same about on Thursday. So Wednesday Wednesday and Thursday this gentleman Who is a street vendor for what we would think of over here? Had 90 customers on Wednesday and Thursday That is lower than the average of say 500 so from 500 to 90 The takeaway here is that it won't remain 90 forever. It was 90 now That's the big initial shock and you see the drop it will take time to get through and to get people normal and okay with going out again because three years is an extremely long time to be not allowed to do anything and under the rule of a thumb and Just because you get that curtain lifted or you're ungrounded from your parents so to speak Maybe you run right back into the crowd and do the things you were doing or maybe you take some time in The Chinese New Year is that it changes around here, but I if memory serves me, correct It's the 22nd of this year through February 3rd or something (16/24)

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like that but anyway the article goes and they're interviewing analysts and workers over in the Chinese different China areas where the COVID outbreak has happened and they say listen after the Chinese New Year meaning that period from late January into February Maybe we see we can get some more stabilization That's another reason for you individual us individual investors to think about over the next couple of months So China is not reopening in a massive way to cause demand Oil and energy have continued to stumble around those headlines energy was down earlier today again on this Wednesday, January 4th Because of not covered restrictions But the demand that's not there yet not back to pre-covid levels because even though you list lifted the restrictions now people are dealing with the virus causing supply chain issues worker issues and etc This too shall pass my point is is that that is a huge stat to go from 500 customers a day to 90 But again, I will continue to try to update you (17/24)

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on this going forward over the next couple weeks I doubt if that same gentleman makes it back to the Wall Street Journal But we can use the Internet of Things and all things to look and figure that out back to What to expect for this year as I wrap up here we have You have to think about in terms of what are you betting on are you betting on the Fed? lying to you for lack of a better term and They're going to cut rates at some point later in this year, which is not in their wordage or language Or are you going to bet on? optimistic market analyst Being correct. That's question numero one and number two is If the Fed doesn't do what it says and if the Fed does reverse course and change By not only pausing and keeping rates elevated But actually cutting them this year in 2023 The question is why are they doing that? Are they doing that because revised data which I'll get into more tomorrow and we've touched on in the past was incorrect and therefore maybe The situation around inflation (18/24)

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is better than expected currently right now Or is it because something in the financial system cracks Meaning we have a huge sell-off or a liquidity crunch liquidity crunch. Excuse me in the bond market on the Treasury side of anything do we have a World event such as an escalation in Ukraine in China Between Ukraine or excuse me between Russia and Ukraine Does somebody else join the war? Does anything happen between in the Middle East What would cause them to turn about and do another 180 so quickly That's something to think about And if you think it's going to be because something cracks You definitely want to have exposure to long dated puts through money flow trader and also have some exposure to gold gold is creeping up And doing well right now despite Still relatively strong daughter dollar. Excuse me And I think that there is buzz around gold because going forward into this year You're going to have a lot of uncertainty and a lot of cracks in the financial system and in my (19/24)

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opinion I've been wrong about gold for different reasons in the past. But in my opinion, I do think gold is going to shine as You get this worriness of Financial markets across the globe. I know that's very easy to say But when you have a change in policy from our Fed and global Fed central banks It's not a huge bet in my opinion to think that you're gonna have a lot of volatility and screwiness To cause people to get nervous and that is when gold will shine. I will There I love doing this podcast because there's breaking news in crypto as just before I started recording and I want to touch on it a moment and that is the revolving door that you see around SEC government agencies and corporations and businesses and Coinbase, which has gotten absolutely annihilated lately along with the overall crypto market and everything risk on News broke earlier today and Coinbase was rallying about six or seven percent Based on their blog post Which reads Coinbase and NY DFS reach agreement to (20/24)

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resolve compliance Investigation the New York Department of Financial Services. That's the NY DFS Has announced consent order focused on certain historical shortcomings in coin bases compliance program Obviously following the FTX debacle and thievery or alleged thievery going on there Compliance issues the handling of customers money what's going on? Who knows what who has access to what? KYC know your customer anti money laundering rules regulations AML the big takeaway here and why is the stock rallying after they just announced that the consent order includes a $50,000,000 penalty and a commitment from coinbase to continue our investments in compliance program So what does coinbase do coinbase gets with this department? They go over all their stuff They filed or they disclosed this as you have to as a publicly come traded company They disclosed in their 10k over 20 21 that this investigation Was going on so 50 million dollar in penalty and a 50 million dollar commitment from (21/24)

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coinbase in investing in compliance program investments over the next two years The reason that this is important and the reason that the stock is popping a little bit again I saw it as high as 7% a little earlier I think it's up around 4% now is because as Frank always says and continues to pound Into our heads as learning individual investors uncertainty is a killer for markets and I can dig into the details later on this the takeaway here is hey, we're gonna move past this We're gonna pay a fine. They have plenty of cash They can afford that and now you're not in the targets or the crosshairs as much from this Agency as you were you've amended they want to work together They're all gonna say the right things about going forward and doing what's best for the individual and the community as a whole Yada yada yada, that's all well and good the takeaway from investors is this is now behind you You can pay the fine and you can move on and this will help with further investigations (22/24)

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Regulation which is coming to this space no doubt at some point. Although a little nervous. It won't happen in 2023 just because of a split house and It takes a lot of time for anything productive let alone smart to happen in Washington Alright folks, I will catch up with the one and only Frank Curzio a little bit later today I will have an update for you in tomorrow's podcast for the Consumer Electronics Show and all things that Frank is doing take away from today is Expect a lot of uncertainty and market volatility and basically the first month We're just gonna listen to news and headlines and we're gonna see how everything plays so hold tight It's gonna be a wonderful prosperous year in 2023 and it has to be why Because 23 is Michael Jordan's number in any year that has that will be a good one. Cheers everybody. We'll talk to you tomorrow. Thank you Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The (23/24)

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information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (24/24)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - The global revolt against the U.S. dollar.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream It's going out there. It's April 12th Now Frank gorgeous the wall strip of pipes we bring the headlines and Say what's really moving these markets So we have earning season which is about to start this week banks and reporting should be fun Tell everyone that we're getting bigger and bigger and bigger and we love this We're really really really too big to fail. They're all gonna report starting this week Good inflation report out later today They were on TV talking about if earnings gonna be weak since estimates have come down dramatically So what you're gonna see is companies beating estimates have been revised probably about 10 15 percent lower So we insisted wow earning season was great even though in videos earnings fell 20% year-over-year, but it was great It beat the estimates TV (1/24)

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we're gonna hear about the macro backdrop. It's strong. Is it okay yet? We have six set of families are living paycheck to paycheck according to latest CNBC poll Mark with the IMF just cut its global GDP forecast its weakest level in 30 years Years an environment where stocks are crazy expensive, especially relative to interest rates And where demand is falling off a cliff If your own stocks you have a 401k All the shit I just mentioned Means absolutely nothing and meaningless next to what I'm about to tell you now if you've been paying attention to China There's getting this coalition of countries To reduce its reliance on the US dollar. I used to think this is a big joke I used to make fun of Doug Casey's a friend of mine. It's hey Doug. I just saw your presentation last week I mean it was the same one from 1979 of you telling us that The US dollar's gonna lose its reserve currency status and Doug would be like, you know, what Frank F you And I'll play Texas holding with him, which (2/24)

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is a very good, Texas holding player, but even with The Bill Bonners of the world, I'm sure a lot of you follow from Gora To the Rick rules. I never believed in that. I was like no way that's never gonna happen But as you know me being independent, I don't really care about anything under the other than the data, right? It's the data that drives you it can't be personal. You can't have this agenda That's why I always hated these people have this agenda no matter what the marketing conditions were The market's gonna crash inflation is gonna happen from 2010 to 2019 we've heard that same story Yet if you have interest rates at zero and you're flooding the market with cash constantly buying bonds to the Fed that has unlimited printing Press just keep it on 24 hours a day every day of the year You have no choice. If you look at the data you had to own assets anything any kind of asset Whether it was art collectibles the stock market housing Look at those patterns of all those people told (3/24)

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you to buy gold and gold was one of the ones that didn't do well because It's not really an asset tied to The government spending it's an asset that's kind of conservative that you're like Oh, you know Let me buy it's a store of value where there's no reason to even look at gold when everything else and the shittiest ideas going up 300% in A matter of a year or two. I used to make fun of these people now I'm not making fun of them anymore because the data has changed When China executes its first LNG trade using the one instead of the dollar you have to take notice When it's out as in China currently discussions about accepting the one instead of the dollar for oil trade First time since the early 70s when Nixon took us off the gold standard you have to pay attention So now what do we have we have the BRIC nations BRICS says for Brazil Russia India China and throw in South Africa Maybe people think it's BRICS what an apostrophe X but it's actually BRICS the S stands for something (4/24)

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interesting South Africa They're working together to create a universal digital currency to reduce their reliance on the dollar sounds like fantasy shit, right? No way that's never gonna happen again. I've been saying this many many years, but listen up just listen to the facts So you have state Duma deputy chairman That's basically with speaker the house of Russia. This is what he said and I'm quoting here just the other day the transition to settlements in a national currencies is the first step the next one is to provide the circulation of digital any other form of Fundamentally new currency in the nearest future and at the coming BRICS summit which is being held in August by the way Is the readiness to realize this project will be announced such works are underway He Then said this new digital currency could be secured not just by gold But also by other groups of products like rare earth elements or soil. This is really happening right now we never had Presidents of nations come (5/24)

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out on public stages and say this yeah You could say whatever you want behind scenes and stuff like that Not when you have these summits and meetings with the flags from each country and you're saying this on a national stage And by the way, you're not gonna find a lot of shit on Google. They suppressed it Go to tick-tock go to Twitter. You might find a few things on Google not all this stuff, you know on YouTube You're not gonna find a lot of it. You should hear see what they're saying at these conferences but now Which surprise we have France joining the party France? President Macron just visit China two days ago announced that Europe needs to rely less on the US dollar. We're talking about France It was like the LA Clippers They want to be a big player in town, but no matter how much noise they make they'll never be the Lakers Look Francey and he just wants to be a major player in Europe, but nobody really pays attention to France You know, you don't say Oh friends, you know UK (6/24)

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Germany Well pay attention to France Because president Macron said on stage with President Xi. This is a couple of days ago Quoting Europe must resist pressure to become America's followers You know, so you want to build a third superpower in Europe Which will be led by himself, of course and that your should reduce its dependence on the US dollar France Europe This is where I wish Donald Trump was still president because Trump would have called Macron the second he heard that and said hey buddy just a reminder We're a largest foreign investor. We have over 4,500 businesses in France supporting 500,000 jobs, which helps support your economy Unless you want us to shut off your LNG supply and make your economy crash Keep your FM out shut about the US dollar and this fantasy third superpowered nonsense So we have Biden probably thinks France is type of butterfly right now but no seriousness Under Biden France, I'll say it. I'm sorry gonna curse fucking hates us so in 2021 Biden announced (7/24)

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a Newly formed Alliance is what Australia in the UK that gives these nations access to US nuclear subs. Okay. Sounds pretty cool Well right after that deal was struck Australia turn around and gave the figure to France and cancelled the 66 billion dollar contract to purchase 12 diesel powered submarines They went out there France, but they Made it very very clear how pissed off they were to the poet Biden like apologized and said we could handle it a little bit better But then Biden turns around and raises the inflation reduction act which authorizes 370 billion That's a package of green subsidies to be allocated to construction with turbines solar panels micro process electric vehicles in the US But more specifically within this plan includes a seventy five hundred dollar tax credit for buys of EVs Manufactured in the US that also have US manufactured batteries So you cut out all of Europe in the EV for this for this trend because they can't compete with price Kind of like what China (8/24)

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does when they dump steel on the market or would they do a rare elf birth elements? When you cut a lot of stuff authors, there's a big reason why steel companies are doing much much better when you're not dumping Cheap free steel to the market So this hurts France Germany almost all European companies that are trying to compete in the EV race which why Macron is doing what he's partying going to strip clubs with President Xi playing nice with China and also playing nice with Russia. I Mean, they're not even providing a budget or anything they don't provide any data of any weapons that they're helping or provide Ukraine because they're not anymore and The US has taken notice. They're like, you know what F this I Mean at France you have to partner with someone and you're getting screwed every which way you're just like gonna partner with the one That's gonna work out the best for you. And right now the terms are so much better With China and Russia than they are with the US But what do (9/24)

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you have you have China pulling all the strings? Yes, we're talking that China with nobody in the US allowed to say anything bad about China in public anymore despite I'm creating COVID which killed close to seven million people worldwide including 1.1 million Americans can't say anything bad about them Nope, wasn't in Buhan suppress that absolutely not didn't start in Wuhan They didn't lie what you know Who cares the common sense part of it where who and all these scientists and doctors wanted to go into one to see what was? Going on and try to say nope. You can't you can't come in With a hoop magically said without even going into China that Wow China handled this so great. So fantastic I think Trump decides cut the funding to the who when everybody got pissed off When do I who said that? Here's a China's responsibility massive amounts of people hundreds of thousands of Americans since 2021 due to fentanyl Even after we tipped off China's government To Chinese fentanyl traffickers. (10/24)

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What do they do? Nothing. They never took action Read it is according to Brookings report from last year. Hey, we're letting you know where these people are go get them Okay, and they do nothing That's fentanyl comes here and yes that China which are wonderful politicians love so much Because they're all in bed with them and man go down that rabbit hole Don't use Google and go down that rabbit hole. Holy shit. I'm talking Republicans Democrats, why do you think that every single problem is blamed on Russia? collusion Biden's laptop no matter what it is It's always gonna be blamed on Russia because we don't really deal with Russia we have no ties to Russia They're not a big trading party China. Forget it. No way you want to talk about demise of Trump. It was when he really started Raising tariffs on China, that's when it was like, holy shit I mean the amount of money that's what's wrong with the democratic system. If you want to find everything wrong It's a great system on earth. It's (11/24)

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easily corruptible. There's so many parties It's like this the college admission scandal, right? So hard to get into these colleges but yet when you're paying like 35 grand to the to the guy who coaches tennis and some guy wants to write him a check for 150 grand to have his Write a scholarship for their daughter It's a co easily corruptible program that blew up in a lot of famous people's and hedge funds faces But it's easy very easily corruptible because you have so many people so many moving parts it's all about money it's all about power But this is the China Who's doing all of this? Because now what do we have We have this growing hatred of the US and man is it growing? We're Brazil Russia India China South Africa. That's the bricks but also also Saudi Arabia Argentina Iran Indonesia Turkey Egypt All expressing interest in joining allies to have their own digital currency to compete Against the US dollar and not own individual Like their alliance to have it Which is pretty smart? (12/24)

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And don't forget Malaysia, that's interesting You see that news that came out last week discussing with China to create an Asian fund between nations to help reduce reliance on the US dollar This is all news stories from the past couple of months When have we ever seen this we've seen yeah here and there and someone talking shit or whatever We don't see them on public forums at summits like this yelling Wanting us to hear this Even Singapore discussed a topic last month reducing its need for the US dollars it gets stronger. It's harder to compete Singapore where everyone speaks English this was to love us the most I've been to Singapore Don't think anyone speaks another language other than American English whatever It's crazy What a beautiful place by the way Now why am I bringing this up? What does this mean? Why is this such a big deal to you? It means earnings inflation The Fed these are big problems temporary in nature or cyclical. I've argued with this cycle It's probably gonna (13/24)

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last a few years instead of a month which we're used to when we have a downturn Over the past 11 years because you had the Fed there to back us up You have COVID trillions comes into the market we have one bad month everything goes back to normal and then we search Everything's fine What was it nine months ten months maybe during the credit crisis we were fine. We're okay. Everything's cool Wasn't like the dot-com ever that three years, you know for now that you don't have the Fed there It's gonna take longer Laura so those are cyclical in nature Right weak demand high rates recession low GDP cyclical cyclical cyclical and wait it out Yeah Now these problems look like little tiny pebbles on The side of a massive volcano that's about to erupt that's what's going on right now, and I'm not as fear-monger You know you listen to me for what you know I'm an old crazy bastard now. I'm 50 years old and I'm old You don't hear me shouting like this Stuff they have to be worried about but man (14/24)

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announcement after announcement joining alliances all these countries a for your portfolio It means that you should have solid allocations to certain sectors And there's three super important sectors that should account for about twelve to fifteen cent of your portfolio They only gonna talk about these in detail and Wall Street and pub premium tomorrow But if you listen to some of these stories you're probably not familiar with them. Maybe one to here there But again this this has not been mentioned like publicly and freely by these other countries at major events conferences state dinners You know what where so many countries just outright hate the US right now It wasn't a big deal when you look at all you know we have problems with Russia We have problems with China or parts of Europe you know alone They can't do much about it, but together along with adding the brick nation in the old brick nations Hey, holy cow. That's a serious threat You pay attention to it Yes, just one of the (15/24)

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main topics will be discussing On Wall Street and pub premium covering lots of stories Which sounds insane? I mean it does sound as any when I say it right the US dollar could lose its reserve currency status It's not gonna happen right away, but the fact that these initiatives are taking place, and you have to stand up and Take notice And just do to research yourself start looking at it So you look what with Bretton Woods right, New Hampshire only a three-week meeting that was in 1944 It's when the US dollar became the official reserve currency right after World War two right 44 countries are there gold was a basis for The US dollar other currencies were official pegged to it You know everybody remembers that 1944 people don't remember it became fully functional to to 1958 Holy cow that's a long time. I'm not saying this is gonna happen quickly But the fact that it's starting is seriously and there's lots of money to be made and lost if you're paying attention Can I don't expect this (16/24)

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to happen anytime soon, but this should? really scare you And this is serious stuff right here because it's insane as it sounds the US dollar was a reserve currency style Yeah, I always thought so I was thought it sounded crazy Until we decided to spend trillions post COVID After every asset class return to new all-time highs until your research History where every eight or a hundred years this pattern of a new global currency emergence You know the Great Britain Portugal Spain Netherlands now the US The reason why she is actually saying that every eighty hundred years. He just recently said that that's why we have to reduce our alliance It's time for change I Mean till you see how much gold Russia and China have been buying over the past couple of years Do your research look at the charts why would they be doing this for? And all the shit sounds crazy so you see this skyrocketing volume of the ruble want training Right it's trading by the Russia's invasion of Ukraine look at the (17/24)

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volume in transactions ruble want trading on it's insane Sounds crazy until you see for the first time ever dozens of major countries developed nations talking publicly in a coordinated effort in a coordinated effort All the same time to wean themselves off the US dollar by starting a universal digital currency Yes idea sounds crazy until you have the US government shutting down things like crypto out of nowhere. Why? What was the threat? Banks were embracing it. Why? Why are you shutting off banks that had nothing to do with fraud that were doing the right thing? Why you close our bank? Why why why? Why are you doing everything in your power to keep the dollar strong interesting do you see this threat coming as well? How do you keep it strong? Raising rates which will attract more foreign capital Almost every other country has stopped tightening. Have you noticed that it sounds crazy Until you see the two biggest alternatives to the US dollar which are Bitcoin and gold have you seen (18/24)

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where they are right now? Gold all-time high just off of it Bitcoin was 15,000 recently it just broke 30,000. Why do you think that's happening right now? So I could tell you something that's a lot of freaking coincidences This isn't just one or two things like I know freaking way down. I mean those are facts. I'm telling you about And I know this diehards and people being frank you crazy. That's nuts again I'm not someone that that says shit like this lightly But you're seeing this change when you see politicians spending trillions with total disregard of anything they don't care Where there's no consequences for their action at all they'll get reelected no matter what no matter How many places they destroy people are still gonna vote? Democrat no matter how much the Republicans mess up in certain areas. They're still gonna vote Republicans There's no change. There's no change here And more importantly you could do whatever you want get caught in lies you could go on under oath (19/24)

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testimony show pictures and get caught completely and There's still no consequences for your action. What do you think is gonna happen? It's gonna entice everyone who's not messing around fucking around To start doing things because they're seeing everyone else benefit You see some kid rob a store for and get to new TV, and then you're like wow that's messed up And then I'm not all the other friends do it and everybody else does it and doesn't does it you know what you're gonna Feel like an idiot You know you're gonna Do you're gonna try to rob a store and grab a TV cuz everybody else has got it for free you're promoting this You're promoting spending you're promoting just Unbelievable amounts of debt I mean trillions guys trillions would it take 200 years to spend 1 trillion. We're spending trillions or a few months now The debt ceiling good luck and the politicians are smart they sign a deal right now They don't want to see a week of dollar which you're going to see if they don't (20/24)

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sign a deal But their egos are so inflated and they're gonna fight for all this bullshit For their communities for themselves or whatever that they better start looking at the bigger picture Because dollar weakens that's not a good thing you want to keep the dollar strong But I tell you the coalition the unity among so many countries the coordinated effort Pay attention it's gonna influence a lot of sectors, and I'm not talking about sectors at all well I own this stock or that stock. I'm talking about sectors. I'm talking about gold not going to 3,000 but 15,000 Bitcoin going to a hundred thousand massive massive moves If this really develops the way, I think it is and it looks that way And the u.s.. Is just falling asleep with the wheel I'm sure I'm gonna get a ton of emails about this feel free to email Frank Curzio research calm. I'm here for you I'll take it yell at me. Call me crazy, but provide research for me. I Don't mind anyone disagreeing on a mind anyone have an opinion, (21/24)

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but support it I've been wrong before Not often. I try to tell my wife. I'm never wrong I've been right more than wrong when it comes to stocks. I wouldn't be doing this, but yes I've been wrong you have a difference of opinion. Let me know or maybe you have more information about this Let me know I'm here Frank Curzio research calm and one of emails me knows That answer a lot of those emails anyway. Well show on premium It's gonna be tomorrow. That's our new podcast just $10 a month also gives you access to a dollar stock club portfolio, which Would give you a trading idea day on myself every single week, which we track provided by up to price for hide the catalyst in the podcast More detailed analysis in the markets stocks making the news It's an hour long that podcast it's been huge since we launched Just the reviews have been amazing, and I appreciate that I told you we're gonna provide a very very very detailed really no-nonsense podcast And we want to charge for it And we should (22/24)

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because the details you're getting there the fact that we're independent we could talk about this no hold barred Not tied to anyone we don't get paid by third parties We say basically what we find and what we know about through our research which is 100% Independent so I really appreciate all reviews for watching on a premium if you're interested go to wsu offer comm to subscribe You can cancel any time you want, but it's just a monthly service for only $10 a month which includes portfolio again bees are just Or this is just one of the topics That we're gonna discuss along getting it deep in detail with many many many topics that people don't want to talk about however It will lead to more profits for you and also to avoid the sectors That won't benefit when a lot of this shit goes down Sky says it for me questions or comments. I'm here for your friend Chris research comm I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most (23/24)

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respected financial media companies in the Industry the information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast remember. It's your money and your responsibility (24/24)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Two easy ways to profit from the new global financial system.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream Good morning. Good day. Good afternoon. Thank you for tuning in to the Wall Street unplugged podcast It is Tuesday April 5th, and I am your guest host Behind the mic Daniel Creech senior analyst here at Curzio research filling in for the one and only Frank Curzio who if I had to guess Is somewhere between New Orleans and Amelia Island with the biggest grin on his face on? Cloud nine not worrying about a thing lack of sleep probably losing his voice high cost of gas prices All that takes a backseat why because the Kansas Jayhawks are the NCAA men's basketball champions And What was a thrilling game a record-setting game because it looks like they set a record from? They broke a record from 1963 the largest deficit come back to win they were down. I believe 16 points at one time who? Tune (1/24)

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in tomorrow on our Wednesday podcast when we get back to regular scheduling programming Where we did Frank and I discussed the hot topics moving markets I'm sure he'll tell us all about it and I'll probe him to try to calm it down a little bit But yeah congratulations to them, and what a great game three-point game Vegas once again calls it correctly for all you underdog betters because North Carolina covered and I believe the under cover too So good luck to all out there today since I'm behind the mic and running the show I'm gonna talk to you about a couple of topics that got my attention And if it gets my attention why it should get your attention all right? I'm gonna play a theme little a little theme here in jeopardy I'm gonna give you the answer first on these two topics As to why you should care, and then we'll work backwards And I'll explain it hopefully entertain you and educate you along the way on how I'm thinking through markets in situations that are unfolding in our crazy (2/24)

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world right now First topic why should you care about what's going on with the Russia Central Bank and its currency? And how it affects global markets and the potential and the tailwinds? It's creating their answer there are huge shifts massive shifts Taking place in the global financial system at a central banking level around the world and that's going to Impact and affect all of us individual investors and remember us individual investors are kind of like gladiators We're thrown into the arena. We're outnumbered. We're outmanned We don't have the influence or capital as the big players. We don't get to make the rules We just have to pay attention do the research and position ourselves to benefit from what's coming not get hurt by it So the takeaway here is make sure you have exposure and investments to oil and gas energy and Hard commodities and currencies gold and silver. That's the takeaway you can do that through producers the big dogs little dogs It doesn't matter ETFs. Just (3/24)

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have exposure and understand why you have exposure or at least know Your reasoning behind this your thesis behind this because the shifts taking place in the global financial system and fiat dollars money backed by nothing and endless printing by governments around the world Leads to inflation we're experiencing that now That's when things starts to to move when people are getting hurt and feeling in their pocket book That's when things take place takes change takes place and you want a position for that What in the hell is going on over in Russia with its currency? I have a couple of articles here and they both make great points They they disagree with one another and they're from they're very recent ones from March 30th the other one I believe is the same but I'm going back and forth between an article in bullion star and from global economics commentator in Mich talk right before Russia invaded Ukraine when you look at the Russian currency to US dollars obviously after the invasion (4/24)

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sanctions US sanctions and worldwide sanctions happened you had major headlines around huge corporations from McDonald's to Visa MasterCard and just about everybody else for the most part over here cutting ties with Russia their currency plunged 3036 percent against the dollar this is back on February 24th and the following days when those sanctions were announced fast forward to the end of March and On paper and again, I'm not overlooking the terribleness of war in the invasion. I hope hoping pray all that stops immediately on paper That has already gained all those losses back. So what in the hell is going on on paper? It's as if nothing is going on in the world in reality So lost 36% following the sanctions now, it's back Major headlines are pointing to the fact that For the first time in a couple years and just going off memory. I've read this through Reuters and Bloomberg and and countless others some point to the fact that Russian Central Bank is buying gold at 5,000 rubles per (5/24)

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gram and Based on these calculations. That's that's putting it around one thousand nine forty four US dollar terms in gold per ounce They point to the fact that Russian Central Bank Willing and announcing that they're going to buy 5,000 per gram is going to help in links their currency to gold now It's exciting saying you got gold bugs forever It says hey in a world of finite money money printing innocently, which I've dubbed combination of Wizard of Oz and Willy Wonka Nothing when in a world where nothing backs the currency other than the promising of taxing the people Is it really that big of an idea or really that big of a stretch to think? Wow Maybe your currency should be backed by something You don't have to go back in history very far to figure out that it was You know, it was tied to gold back leading up to the 70s when Nixon cut that that's one but The bullion star points out that hey They are Pegging or putting their linking their currency to gold Because they're willing to (6/24)

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buy it at a little bit below market price and then they could potentially Also say hey you have to buy Commodities they're huge producers or exporters of oil and gas and wheat What if you had to buy gold? What if you had to use gold to buy those commodities not just the Russian currency a Couple of things with that real quick on is it back to gold? I have a hard time believing that simply in the in the way we would think about exchange for gold and Meesh talk points out Hey, they're not the central bank isn't selling any gold at a fixed price It's not as if you can go to the window of the central bank and say hey, I want to okay You're gonna willing to buy gold at X price. But are you going to give out gold in exchange for Russian currency? So the linkage hey is the headline the headline is a great headline and get your emotions stirred up And it even it even gets me. It's like holy cow If somebody's actually gonna use a commodity back currency that's going to make some waves Who knows (7/24)

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if it's gonna be a huge success or not? But that's a significant change from where we are that you need to pay attention to It is it is a positive for gold because it's another buyer of gold, okay, so that's a tailwind there why is the currency Rebounded its losses from the sanctions so quickly I would argue seven weeks is pretty damn quick to gain back thirty plus percent fall in value. I highlighted that there was several major corporations like McDonald's closing all the Franchises there and continuing to pay employees even though doing so that was a noble fact in my opinion MasterCard and Visa also pulled out while that pulled out of Russia and while that affected and Impacted some Russian citizens that were using those cards with the sticker Master and Visa MasterCard and Visa on Outside of the country. It didn't change anything within Russia and that's because Going back after sanctions for Crimea where happened in 2014 when Russia was being a bad actor MasterCard Visa did (8/24)

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similar sanctions So Russia built a transaction system on their central bank underlining all those All that happened when Master and Visa from what I can put together in Meesh talk points this out in the equivalent of basically 90 some million dollars in fees When Visa and MasterCard pulled out now those fees none of those transactions got harmed So the fees are going to the Russian central bank who got hurt all those McDonald's is that pulled out or shut? They didn't pull out. You can't physically go grab the real estate Russia just renames them That's profound. That's that unfortunately Points to the fact of why world leaders including including President Biden and others are saying hey This could go gone for a long time me like many others were hoping and pray Hey if this happens and it's happened. Okay, it started. Hopefully it ends quickly Now you have several different people talking about the prolonged effect of this or how this can draw out So hopefully that all gets resolved (9/24)

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But it just points to more volatility more chaos and the longer the longer lasting that this can happen ie and the supply or in the hits it's going to cause on supply chains commodities and such So may it's not let's not go as far as saying it's actually linked to gold But they do have a lot of power in turning off exports in Commodities in their currency. So me talk points out and says hey, they basically, you know, they're taking drastic steps. They're not letting foreign sellers sell Russian currency, they're not letting foreign sellers sell in the stock market They're causing US dollars and euros to be paid for outside of the sanctions. So again oil gas commodities That's why it's a artificial heat mish talk argues that it's more of an artificial demand for it. That's why it's stabilizing regardless of the exact reason why the takeaway for investors is that sanctions and supply chain disruptions and commodities and commodity related Assets is is a huge tailwind for higher prices (10/24)

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and Even though Russia isn't demanding gold payments or anything like that You don't have to have a specific to get wind of other countries starting to say hey, that's maybe it's not a bad idea Including us maybe it's not a bad idea to have more sound Commodities for everything from precious metals and energy I either make the world go round to also value Scarcity limit people have a psychological connection money is emotional. You want to believe in something that backs it Why do you think Bitcoin and crypto is doing so well? Overall yes, it's volatile but people flock to scarcity limited supply in Quantity that you can argue what that price is going to be but it's going to have a price and right now That's forty some thousand dollars for Bitcoin so no go back ruble mish talk points out to eight reasons why the room the Ruble is rebounding and it is because Russia escaped visa and MasterCard so they don't pay any of those fees that helps It's keeping it in-house Russia still trades (11/24)

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oil and gas with Europe President McCrone even said hey, we're not I'm paraphrasing a little bit, but he says hey, we're not a war with Russia again You can't just turn the lights off people Russia halted currency trades again and a lot of foreigners are for foreign holding holdings It put in place stock market restrictions It threatened to stop commodities including uranium natural gas fertilizer rare earth metal minerals, which drives up prices Which is what their economy thrives on Sanctions cannot take away Russia's natural resources and here's a good one the Fed Nor so the Federal Reserve nor the European Central Bank can print commodities. It can simply print dollars That is the big takeaway because as inflation hits us all in our pocketbooks The world and individuals are start its election year You're gonna have you're gonna hear a lot more about sound money or budgeting or how are you going to fix inflation inflation is? Skyrocketing and interest rates are going to be moving (12/24)

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higher. So what in the hell are the individuals to do? buy those commodities short and sweet a Couple of good things from the boy and star so I kind of talked about the me stocks saying hey They're going a little far on that. It could cause a lot more so It if you have more buyers It's going to cause demand further sanctions by the US knowing that the ruble is back to pre invasion levels The Biden administration is already hinting as well as others more and more sanctions are coming all that takeaways for the individual Individual investor is they're gonna try to do form. They're gonna try to freeze US currency reserves over there They're also going to do commodities or maybe try to do something on the gold That Russia holds and they're already doing that on the way it can export it Through different banks that are sanctioned all that means all that takeaway is when they when they screw and tinker with the supply chain Prices are going to be affected and I would argue that the (13/24)

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direction of those prices are going to go higher not lower Which is why you need to have exposure to that The reality is is that on paper? The Russian currency is trading back to levels acting like the invasion never happened. That's While I admit absolutely batshit crazy. It's something that needs to be noted and investors need to pay attention So dev on energy Exxon Mobil Viper energy is a smaller one look at ETFs on the gold side new mon is a low hanging fruit Barrick Those major producers that have leverage to the price of gold These are longer-term macro tailwinds that I think you need to have in your pocketbook on your watch list To think and understand that hey as more and more disruption happens and inflation takes hold You're going to start see more more momentum towards hard commodities and things like that. So have exposure That is enough for topic number one topic number two on What you should give a flying Florida about is the new activist investor the new the new shape (14/24)

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that it's taking. I Commented last week or a couple weeks ago with Frank on Wall Street unplugged about Carl icon. I respect him I like to read everything that he puts out in his letters and situations His thoughts successful over a very long career investing career He's still doing his old-fashioned corporate radar where you go in and yell at management for being overpaid and not producing results Like he is with Southwest gas, but he's also taking on what I would put under the umbrella of the emotional Conversation or the emotional bullying for lack of a better word to have some fun the ESG environmental social governments governance Tailwind we've seen him. He is fighting with McDonald's With you know, I read is it CNBC or Maybe a link through Finviz, but it was instead of you know, what's a corporate radar? I you come in you buy a big chunk of stock I think all of you know where I'm going with this on my Twitter reference earlier you come in you buy a big chunk of Stock yellow (15/24)

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management you want board seats. You want to make some changes Carl icon with his latest bow with McDonald's. Yes the happy arches. He bought like 200 shares of McDonald's 200 200 and he's fighting with them over how they treat pigs and other animals I believe on raising, you know, just just that whole tug at your hearts and good for them Like I said, I'm not a I'm not in for abusing animals, but it just shocks me that that that's popular right now You know that's going to get attention and the feel-good and and hey, what are you doing to make everything better including? you know the treatment and people want to be able to track things from farm to plate I Think that's and that's why everybody has hey How are we what's our plan in our initiative to save the world and everything that we have an impact on in our business? That is huge right now that all leads to Elon Musk and Elon Musk has recently just disclosed that he has a passive just under 10% ownership in Twitter Okay, social (16/24)

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media giant Twitter It's roughly a three billion dollar stake this guy cracks me up I've been critical and complimented him throughout the past I Try to be even on my criticism and praise for Elon Musk because he is entertaining as hell and he plays the game better than most Richest guy around 200 and some billion dollar net worth. This is chump change for him, but it proves a bigger point Just like what we've seen with meme stocks The emotions of Of One versus the other in meme stocks and GameStop and AMC It was the little guy versus the big guy and they were driven by hey, we're gonna make money So they're driven by greed and we can profit and we're also going to hurt them, you know, this David versus Goliath We're sticking it to the man. We're we're the rock and roll. You know, we're busting out here Screw curfews screw screw all that screw rules We're gonna do what we want and we are going to press it to them and get rich in the process Short squeezes they created a lot of pain. (17/24)

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They've changed business models. Look at look at what happened to those business models in the The dying business models they had on paper, you know lack of sales. They were just the old blockbuster etc, etc movies viewership was going down then Retail gets behind him emotion gets behind him AMC is now Armed with a ton of capital, I believe the CEO said they raised 1.8 billion during the pandemic Gives it plenty of cash and what do they do? They go and invest in a gold and silver mind in northern Nevada Which with one of the most successful resource investors sprout at the same time. That's huge if you're hating on AMC They they have been given a lifeline forget outside of just the cash They raised, you know, even if you're a fraud, which I'm not saying anybody's a fraud But think about this, even if you're a fraud if you have tons of cash, you can continue the fraud for longer, right? Even if you're a dying business or a slowing business when you have tons of capital backing you you (18/24)

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can stretch that out You can increase this duration Okay, and you can also if if you're smart you can make some good investments or good changes You can reshape your business model. You're giving a second chance. It's like a video game You just died on this level, but I hell when you hit this saving point now, you can just restart and try again That's wonderful AMC has a ton of cash on its balance sheet It's getting into different areas like crypto and hinting at different things GameStop is the same way now Twitter Elon Musk takes to Twitter I mean This is like the ultimate Trojan horse coming in without a disguise You just walk right in you tell them what you're gonna do. You're buying shares You're taking polls on whether or not they honor free speech. A lot of people say no, he's got 80 million Twitter followers What do you need you need big money and big vocal cords or a big megaphone? To be an activist investor today. The irony here is that now Twitter could be turned into a meme (19/24)

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stock that has Canceled blocked certain people from Trying to make certain causes or arguments and that's politics to kovat to whatever I mean that is just hilarious because Twitter popped 27 25 percent when this news hit earlier this week on yesterday Now I'm not I'm not saying if you want to play I we talked about this last week, man. I missed Twitter I thought when they were gonna come out with a pay option. That was good. Don't give me any credit I didn't buy any I just watched it drift lower. Obviously it pops now. You're thinking all well, which woulda coulda shoulda it'll be interesting to watch from here if Twitter does take on that meme stock retail emotion angle and Before I came to record I already seen headlines about Twitter is engaging With discussions and things with Musk. He's gonna be on the board free speech going it the reason that this gets my attention is because it draws forward the free speech and a lot of Hot topics right now on social media with regulation (20/24)

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everything going into an election year I think the risk reward for higher than lower is still higher for Twitter shares now because this is a huge shift Not only in for Twitter stock also for just the environment of activists and things in general and If you want to do some screens on hey, look look at some of these players Look at who there's whole you know, who's buying what listen to what people are saying Musk has foreshadowed this and Going after Twitter and all that kind of stuff But one of the bigger takeaways is BlackRock has been doing the same thing So pay attention to how it's received and reported on in the news Because I've already seen headlines about hey, this is kind of scary You just got a big rich guy coming in throwing his weight around Well, that's no different than what BlackRock's doing one of the largest if not the largest asset management a asset manager Excuse me with trillions and under management. We highlighted what they did and threw their weight around (21/24)

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with Exxon Mobil Yet a little activist investor by a small percentage of the stock nowhere near a controlling interest in shares Yet they convinced the controlling interest of shares ie BlackRock to vote for them to get board members on Exxon Mobil So activism is nothing new. There's nothing new under the Sun. Don't panic about this use this as an entertainment laugh this off This is light-hearted if you want to trade in and out of this name. Hey have at it, but the bigger picture is Activist investor is shaping up and anything can take hold. You can have an Elon Musk He's got a wild history with tweets and driving share prices in his own company Tesla Twitter crypto currencies and all that kind of stuff Just understand that This is just another data point another piece to point to and say hey This is just craziness in this world. We live in this is the reality of the investing world So be prepared for huge swings volatility and anything can happen because we have a lot of money (22/24)

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sloshing around in the system even though the Federal Reserve is going to try to take some out with easing or quantitative tightening and higher interest rates and things The pond that we've been dumping money into the system for so long There's still a lot sloshing around and anything and everything will happen It'll be a hell of an exciting ride and it'll be entertaining. So just pay attention to that kind of stuff That's two topics that got my attention and I wanted to break that down. Hopefully that was educational and fun We've had some technical difficulties. So I apologize if some things miss well or didn't go well But that's not Garrett's fault our wonderful sound guy. That is my fault Tune in tomorrow Wall Street unplugged Like I said on our Wednesday hot topics moving markets day between Frank Curzio and myself Daniel Creech again Always an honor and a pleasure to fill in for Frank Curzio Give me any feedback good or bad is all of its welcome Daniel at Curzio research.com (23/24)

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That's Daniel at Curzio research.com and make sure you have exposure to gold and silver oil and gas Cheers Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast remember it's your money and your responsibility (24/24)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - How to get 'crypto rich'.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main Franker's just the wall street up a podcast where I break that headlines and Say what's really moving these markets a special interview setup today, and I really want you to listen up Because a person I'm interviewing is a multi platinum artist the young rapper named dill Dyl where his hit song which is it with another young rapper named Wes Walker called Jordan Belfort Yes, about the wolf of Wall Street sold over two million copies Just gonna talk about his experience with his label actually Gonna tell you how he got screwed by his label, which let him create NFTs non-fungible tokens And start doing performances in the metaverse So I interviewed him a few weeks ago the metaverse conference in Las Vegas where he also performed the post conference VIP event By the way, he's awesome. It's (1/24)

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really really good. Anyway, I Think dill's story is fascinating. He's one of 30 35 people I interviewed with Very very big social media followers that are going all in the metaverse and NFTs fascinating people But after you listen to this one specifically, you know exactly why they're going all in on these major trends Here's that interview right now Thanks so much for joining us man. What's going on? Hey, how's it going? Happy to be here at the metaverse Expo So metaverse Expo probably something you might have not said two years ago, right? Now you're seeing so many artists like yourself get into it. Talk a little about what you do yourself Introduce yourself to the audience. Yeah, I'm a multi-platinum artist. I've been in the music industry almost a decade now and about Five years ago six years ago I got into crypto and I found a new passion for crypto when I got involved and I actually quit making music for a couple years until I realized that music is my true passion and I wanted (2/24)

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to use my platform as a multi-platinum artist to Teach people what I learned about the future of financial and creative freedom So in 2018, I recorded this album crypto rich which came out in 2019 it was the first album to tell a whole story about crypto through music and Now it's become one of the top selling music NFTs. We do shows in the metaverse. We do IRL shows we have merch We have all different types of utility for my collectors So it's been amazing for me as an artist coming from the traditional industry Where artists typically get screwed financially to this new way of doing things? We're now able to get funding from my community without having to give up all of my music ownership So talk about the screw part not in a bad way and I don't want you to mention names, you know but a lot of artists probably have gone down that path and they figured out and they got famous and I hear that with so many people Where they'll come out the content. They'll do everything and next thing, (3/24)

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you know, they're not making any money at all And you know a couple years later It's it's kind of like a shit show Talk about that and how it led to what you're doing now because now you still have your audience The audience knows you and you have social media and now, you know, we'll get to the NFT part But talk about that and how it led to this. Yeah I mean the problem in the music industry is that the labels have built a business model of Basically giving predatory deals. So what they do is they look for new upcoming artists They often sell them a dream and unless you're the top 1% of artists at that label a lot of times you kind of get left out to dry and so that's what happened to us You know, we took a deal we were sold a big dream, but then ultimately the label never reinvested in us, right? So this song is multi-platinum over 2 million in sales And I've only seen a tiny percentage of that less than a living wage that I get every year, right? And so like the average listener (4/24)

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assumes that because I made this multi-platinum hit, you know that I'm making tons of money And you know all this stuff, but that's very much not the case So that's why I found myself going into crypto because I was looking for that next play I was looking for what I could do. I'd toured I did over a hundred shows, you know I got the chance to be in some of the best studios in the world But I needed to find my next play right and so I got big into crypto and at some point I thought you know What maybe music isn't gonna work out? But I think it came full circle when I decided to tell my crypto story through music and that's brought me to where I am Today so in many ways if that situation didn't happen with the label, then maybe I'd still be looking for a label deal You know, maybe I'd still be looking for that one up, but I think that early experience with the label taught me like, okay This is how the traditional industry looks and now I don't have to reach for that anymore because I (5/24)

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understand That I can do all the things I need to do with me and my community alone It's good you come back from that because sometimes when you have traumatic experience people always focus on that But they don't realize that that's probably the best thing that may have happened to you, right? There's now look at you now and talk about the NFT part of the business where this is you this is your content You can sell directly the audience. You have your business talk about that. Yeah for sure I mean so it was only a single song deal so a lot of artists get locked up in these deals or maybe they sign for a few albums and then they're not happy about the Income they're gonna make off those albums. So it puts you in a tough situation So, you know in many ways like a blessing in disguise. Yes, they got my big multi-platinum hit But at the same time I still own all my masters. I can still operate independently So what's amazing now is that I have actually sold more music NFTs in the last (6/24)

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year and a half than the label paid me in total the last decade and so that's amazing because I didn't Give up any of my copyright ownership I still own 100% of my masters I've gotten funding from my community and on top of that I've created huge value for my community A lot of my collectors are up 10 to 20 X their etherium I think we've done about a quarter million in sales, which has created over a million in market cap So that means that we've created a lot of value for the people who bought the NFTs So it's not just about getting the funding I need but it's about Delivering value to my community the people that choose to buy my NFTs that invest in me, right? So that's what's been huge for me. And as far as building the NFTs, it's all about utility, right? Like I said, I don't give up my copyright. I don't think that's really what it's about with NFTs It's about exclusive access to the artists to concerts and festivals Like I'm doing here access to my merch exclusive merch drops, (7/24)

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right and my discord community one-on-one calls So to me it's all about facilitating a direct connection with the artist And I think that's the future of the music industry So what I think we have here is the tools to unlock a billion dollar market cap for a music artist So talk about go through the NFT process with someone that's never done it before and they're a fan of yours how do you create it have they buy it and Just talk about the whole part because it's still a very small percentage of people that understand NFTs But when they see people like you and other artists doing it, they're starting to say, okay I have a lot of great stuff to to offer. This is my content I don't have to go through anybody any platform or anything. Talk about the process Yeah, so what I've noticed is music NFTs are very new I mean you think a small percentage of people understand NFTs Well a small percentage of those people understand music NFTs, so it's all very new But the most common question I see (8/24)

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from artists coming into the space or the most common pushback is they say Well, my fans don't know about NFTs So I don't think I should do music NFTs because my audience doesn't know about that And what I've been trying to get artists to understand is that this is a completely new Opportunity to sell your music to a different group of people. It's in ways It's like taking your music to a new country, which is the metaverse, right? And so the best way to put it is that there is a million or billion dollar Opportunity here to sell your music in web3 without onboarding any of your audience from web2 And so don't get me wrong onboarding is important We want to bring our fans over from web2 into web3, but artists need to understand that Music NFTs don't have to change anything for your regular listeners who listen on Spotify who follow you on Instagram They don't have to do the NFT. They can still enjoy the music. They can still be listeners the NFT offers something more, right? So the NFT (9/24)

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is far more than just the listening experience You buy the NFT to invest in an artist to have a bet on them to get exclusive access to everything that they're doing So when you buy into my NFTs, you're buying into my community and the NFTs do contain the music But the music is on all streaming sites Spotify YouTube Apple music and that's really important because that's the marketing vector for the music Right, so people always think oh you have to buy the NFT to listen to the song No way That's not what it's about you buy the NFT to have a connection to the artist and to have ownership of the song But what's super important to realize is that the music is still out there on streaming people can still listen You know and I call it like a freemium model where listening to the music is still free. There's still music videos There's all these things but if you want the premium option you buy the NFT And then you're fully invested with the artist So we have a movie right never smoothie and (10/24)

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the biggest thing for me is we ask everyone What is the metaverse because when you ask on your people you get a hundred different answers which shows how great and how big this? Industry really is What's your definition of the metaverse? I would say the metaverse is a video game That is connected to real money using crypto That was probably the simplest one yet have to say So what's the next stage for you? What's so if people want to learn more about you and and you know, what do they have to look for in the future? Yeah, I mean, here's the thing Most people who will watch this have never heard crypto rich. So I would say listen to crypto rich. It's a 19 song album It's my story about crypto and web 3 and I realized that it's all about building that brand So for me, I'm thinking I have a thousand collectors now I'm thinking how do we get ten thousand collectors to hold crypto rich? So it's not all about oh, I have to drop the new album and the new album and the new album This community (11/24)

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is about building your core fan base. So for me, we're actually doing a new drop for crypto rich I'm continuing to scale up the community while working on new stuff. So I also have a new project called NFT mixtape that's coming soon, but I just want to illustrate the point that The music itself is not the same as the actual NFT So I can continue scaling up my collection for crypto rich while working on new music and Ultimately, the goal is to create network effects by having thousands of collectors holding the NFTs related to the music because they're gonna stream it They're gonna comment on the YouTube videos They're gonna help you hit the top of the charts and the biggest vision for me what we need to see for music NFTs to Be successful. Is that a music NFT funded artist makes it to billboard makes it to YouTube trending gets on the Spotify viral Playlist because I've had that stuff happen. And so to me, this is why I say Music has to be on streaming. It has to be on YouTube It has (12/24)

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to be on these sites because right now in web 3 there's no platform to make music hit billboard your web 3 sales They don't count towards billboard So the vision for me is getting artists funded in web 3 and then taking them to the top in the traditional industry Without the label that's coming on man. Yeah So pretty amazing stuff Where dill is young he's under 30 But humble right something you don't see from this age group often right supposed to be arrogant and crazy and understand that you Takes you a while in this thing. You really don't know everything but you know, just humble right guys had handed to him Not that humble especially being this famous Also, you can see how the metaverse is gonna play a huge role in concerts where he performs sometimes So if you're looking at Ariana Grande Marshmallow Travis Scott people you may not be familiar with probably Ariana Grande should be familiar with How old you are, but these are massive massive massive superstars in the music industry (13/24)

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They have huge global followings huge social media followings and they all had concerts in the metaverse so let's take Travis Scott before a fortnight a year ago and if you look at the industry Most live music venues have 30 to 40 thousand seats most we know some overseas hundred thousand Michigan Penn State but most of them on average 30 40 thousand seats top performing artists make around $500,000 per concert with superstars if you look at Lady Gaga feel the jay-z making one to two million dollars per show Travis got formed the metaverse according to Billboard Over 45 million people view Travis Scott's virtual concert. Well, it was live That's 1,000 times the size the average audience who watches a live concert according Forbes Travis Scott made close to 20 million from this one event that also include merchandise sales that will be done during the show So that's about ten times what Taylor Swift pulls in per concert The event has also been viewed a hundred and ninety three million (14/24)

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times on YouTube I'm gonna ask you a question What do you think these music of ours are gonna do going forward? You think I perform in the metaverse a lot Yeah, you still gonna have live venues and it's not the same but this was pretty spectacular and we have Rolling Stone variety huge huge opinions You just critics in the music industry say this is unbelievable. All right, everybody knew this is a game changer. This happened over a year ago So you're looking at a lots more artists. Sorry should you have? Justin Bieber probably biggest following in social media just a one on a separate metaverse platform so What do you think I do the amount of money you could make? Not a people that attend Doesn't make sense so you're looking at a Younger audience that's watching this. That's fine. You know, dill is under 30 part of the Gen Z Gen Z's 9 to 24. I think he's 26 27 But if you're looking at Millennials, it's 25 to 40 right Millennials are now 40 years old So what we call the younger (15/24)

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generation right now is under 40 Where everything they do is digital. That's the world they grew up in So if you're 55 you're 50 old like me and you're 60 go. No this metaverse thing I don't see people really gonna miss whatever well think about 10 20 years from now The millennia is gonna be 60 and that listen the trends here. It's not coming metaverse It's here with the amount of money and stuff like that I just wrote a huge educational point 17 pages that that Details everything and if you read it, you'd understand you'd invest in the members right away after you read it It's really I've really spent a lot a lot of time couple weeks to write it But now say 20 years from now Where the millennial generation Gen Z, they're all 60 and under So most of the world's population will grown up 100% in a digital world. That's why the metaverse could be massive But every major tech companies investing it right now It's also why every major retailer has established a headquarters in metaverse. (16/24)

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It's essential and sandbox, whatever Because 80% of the people this is a real statistic by McKinsey 80% of people who have been in the metaverse have purchased something Your retail it's all about analytics all about data. That's how you run all your Supply chains everything you tell me 80% of these people have purchased something you see in restaurants Chipotle did a special deal during Halloween Amazing bet the best they do it every single Halloween Boosts the cat whatever it's called and they sold By giving away your discounts or whatever and burritos. It's a burrito I think they call it that they've ever done any other year that they've done this promotion So when you look at this what 80% of people who have been the members to purchase something It's also why NFTs are gonna be huge non-fungible tokens as influences who have millions and sometimes tens of millions of followers Are looking to capitalize on their name and looking to do it without having to share it with Excuse my (17/24)

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language asshole third parties labels agents brokers who really don't give a crap about you They didn't give a crap about you before you hit hit songs. Are you famous now? Now you have ownership Also NFTs as you can see it's more than just digital art and collections You've been buying a few NFTs and man the groups and the communities are insane You you'll know why the red a crowd is so huge You'll know why Tesla had such a premium evaluation for such a long time. These guys are diehards. They love you They'll do anything for you And I got four five hundred Twitter followers simply because I bought an NFT within a specific group and these people were loving it They were I've never seen that kind of commitment in 30 years from any type of group unbelievable It's very very powerful But they're not just digital art collections I know you're hearing how yeah people are getting robbed and this had seen them with crypto, right? So you had the proper protocols in place which open season's (18/24)

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doing? Large platform fan of T's but you know, it's not just digital art clutch. It's access Dealers using NFTs to give his biggest fans exclusive access to his new album all the songs Also gives them them access to him personally where he does a maze which is ask me anything's right with this group of people and They also have first right to the best tickets Front row seats face value when he performs now think about if you go back to the 60s and replace deal with Rolling Stones the Beatles the who Beach Boys. I'm not comparing them. Just saying this. Okay, cuz I know the diehard I'm not saying this All these people all those groups sold over 100 million records beaters Rolling Stones over 500 over 500,000 was a 500 million records Wow that 500 million records They sold I look this up the Beatles and Rolling Stones 500 million. Holy cow But if you look at the who Beach Boys is over 100 million records sold They look at dill a wrap around the Austria. I never heard of before I (19/24)

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interviewed him in Las Vegas Has quite a few following himself Where he has over 41 million people who watch his Jordan Belfort music video on YouTube 41 million I really never heard of holy shit 41 million But this is the access to current artists are going to give their fans. That's the future So you think about it right now and investing in someone like that say if they turn out to be that big Now you're gonna own a lot of stuff that they created early on think about the memorabilia that's being sold from those groups even past songs where you know that you they just they're released after you know 40 50 years or whatever and things that never you Know they're just little bits and pieces and stuff like that. Think of how much that stuff is worth If you're young music artists I mean you could try a label thing which doesn't work probably for 98% of people without a guess I mean deal said they barely paid him enough money To live after having a multi-platinum hit it's crazy or You (20/24)

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could own your own masters Build NFTs around your music what deal said he made more money for selling music And if he's in 18 months from what his label paid him in the last decade Was also able to get him funny for his community to help build his business When you're looking at NFTs, that's why it's so big. It's much more than a lot. That's why the metaverse is the future They're seeing these numbers what tons of morning much tons Can't say it tons of money hundreds of billions of pouring into these industries from hedge funds venture funds the biggest names Also every major tech company meta Microsoft Nvidia Apple alphabet. I can go with the next 20 largest Let's just stick with those five You keep a score at home these tech giants going all-in Position itself in the metaverse have a combined market cap of more than six point five trillion dollars They're the gatekeepers the walled gardens of the internet and they know those days are coming to an end Which is why? They're going all- (21/24)

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in on the metaverse. I have a lot of questions with this episode Questions comments feel free to email Frank because research calm that's Frank at Chris research calm also You can get free platinum VIP passes I'm gonna be speaking and attending and we'll have a booth set up to crypto connect Expo That's gonna be in Palm Beach. If you want free passes platinum VIP pass free. Just go to our website There's a banner there at cursor research calm absolute for free So you can go there send me a person watch my ugly face unless you watch this on YouTube But you'll see how much work we're doing you see how? How many people are gonna be at our booth we're gonna be interviewing them and talking to them it really is incredible Just learning more and more and so many stories about dill, which I thought was fascinating Maybe you're like a Frank I didn't care about whatever to me. That was a fascinating story. That's the younger generation It's extremely powerful. It's where the world is going and (22/24)

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it's not it's not happening in five years ten years It's happening now the money's pouring in the today show just did a special on the metaverse Time magazine this month's issue the metaverse it's here. The money's coming in. It's pouring in. That's the validation Wall Street Say no to 13 trillion dollar 10 trillion dollar eight trillion dollar business We look at Morgan Stanley Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, which puts it at a bigger total addressable market Then the next five major trends combined from AI EVs whatever in there, but it's here Anyway, I mean meeting a lot of these people you won't learn more gonna free tickets It should be really a concert not a concert but an event they're all gonna be concerts there It's gonna be after-party events there and some really really exciting stuff These guys really know how to throw a party and throw a concert. They've been doing it for a long time concerts and expos. So Really cool should be sold out pretty soon. But again, we do have (23/24)

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Probably a dozen two dozen free tickets and those are platinum VIP passes for free just go to a website Chris research comm if you're interested in going and Sing me or you get those tickets and you don't have to see me it's up to you But they're for free. It's least I do if you listen this podcast That's gonna be a very entertaining conference looking forward to it again. That is this Saturday and Sunday, so guys really appreciate all the support. Hopefully I'll see somebody at the conference. If not, I'll see you next week. Take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (24/24)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - What Powell's latest remarks mean for the markets.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's Thursday, July 28th, and you're listening to the Wall Street unplugged podcast hello, and welcome we have a fun show for you today because Jerome stock market bull pal is wrapping up. They're just recently wrapped up a Q&A after the Fed meeting we'll get to that in just a minute. Hello. This is Daniel Creech senior analyst here at Curzio research filling in Transitory guest host behind the mic for the one and only Frank Curzio who as I mentioned yesterday continues to be on vacation with his family further yonder down south Let's get right into it I'm gonna go over the Fed my opinion on the action had happened and then if I have some time Because I want to keep this keep your attention keep this limited and we have some programming scheduling conflicts We have to do some things earlier. (1/26)

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You know when Frank's out of town everything just goes haywire Just kidding send your feedback good or bad questions and comments to me Daniel at Curzio research calm That's Daniel at Curzio research calm Earlier today the Fed as I said we have programming I have to tape this a little earlier. So Trying to hold off as long as I can but the big takeaway is the Fed the Fed meeting the interest rate rise as expected was 75 basis points Which brings the Fed funds rate to I know numbers are tough on audio 2.25 to 2.50 so two and a quarter to two and a half percent For what it's worth and it's not really that important just fun to point out. It was a unanimous Everybody the pointy shoes Suit-and-tie most smartest brilliance people in the room agreed for whatever that's worth to raise it by 75 basis points because they think that's best for the economy Nothing there. They didn't change a whole lot of language in the statement to follow that the the reading comes out Excuse me, the (2/26)

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announcement comes out at two o'clock followed by the Q&A and press conference at 2 30 Eastern Time What was interesting and I was taking some notes and trying to do this on the fly Because I was watching the stock market and the stock market was having a fine day It was it was at least positive. It was fluctuating around a little bit, but boy I will get to tell It really started to take off during Powell's conference So if you pull up daily charts, and I don't care if you're looking at the Dow the S&P 500 the Nasdaq But just know easier money policies or less hawkish You know lower interest rate environments are good for growth stocks Frank and I have talked about that Frank's done an excellent job explaining that over some time and The market has been anticipating as we've talked about when will the Fed Paul's or hint at cutting rates Frank's talking to has talked a lot about and done some great research and backed it up on why you want to be long going Into the September meeting (3/26)

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because the Federal Reserve could either Paul's or raise Raised by a smaller amount than the 75 basis points. It's done now back-to-back meetings. I believe that's the first time They've done Well, I know it's the first time they've done in a long time because the 75 basis point increase last meeting was the largest since like 94 something ridiculous But Powell came out and said some of the typical what you would kind of expect him to say, you know, we He's done a very good job in the sense of trying to steer the market and be Transparent I must be in a good mood today. I'm being awful nice to these Fed members, which you know regular listeners I'm not I'm not fond of because of the The job that they do and the responsibility that they hold but overall I have to admit he's done a Good job of trying to tell the markets and Wall Street what to expect that their data depend that they're going to be data dependent He signaled higher interest rate hikes coming in the past meetings, you know (4/26)

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the market You know sold off hard over that over the last several months as he's hinted this They haven't done anything too crazy on the shock side But he has said a couple of different things in this recent press conference that I want to highlight Because going forward it'll have more of an impact in future meetings He he signals that they're not going to be as transparent or try to tell you exactly what they're doing. However All that is beside the point because markets are in rally mode The Dow went up over a percent the Nasdaq was up over three percent damn near four Gold even rallied a little bit gold people if gold starts to rally in this environment Who knows what's going on? Because it's been absolutely getting smacked. I've been wrong on that Bitcoin is the Like out of a cannon it popped seven eight percent. We'll see where everything kind of dies down later tonight Obviously, there's a lot of a lot of trading left for the week and things of that nature but Fed Chair Powell (5/26)

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said, you know if I was Introducing him at like the WWE main event or something like that. He'd have to have a good stock market name Stock market bull as I opened the show with that's decent I guess but Not permeable, but man, I'm telling you he he can move markets and he's making some people money and that's good Hopefully you're contributing as well, which is why you have exposure to this market a couple of his comments that stood out to me You know, he's committed to bringing down inflation They have the tools to do so meaning interest rates and The printing press between Willy Wonka and the Wizard of Oz that he has his little hands on Labor market is tight Inflation is much too high much too high says Ongoing increases will be appropriate. This is so that signals. Hey, we're gonna continue to raise rates So that to me reading through the tea leaves here and then in between the lines as a as a young amateur Learning Analyst will have some tongue-in-cheek joke with that is That (6/26)

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takes off the pause in September as far as there's no rate hikes depending on the data now remember We have there's eight weeks in between the next meeting give or take because they don't meet again until September and if You're scratching your head and looking at if you can read a calendar correctly you can and you are smart enough those lazy Suits just take the month of August off, you know, it's hot it's humid By the way, August is rough. There's I there's a lot of birthdays in August My parents both are in August birthday. So that's exciting But I've lived in a handful of different states and August for whatever reason is tough It's not really nice anywhere to my knowledge So let me know if you know of a place you can escape in August But maybe the feds do and that's why they don't work during it moving on Spending has dropped. He's seeing economic slowdown higher mortgage rates are affecting housing This is all good news because their goal is and what they have to do is slow the (7/26)

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economy Price of interest rates increases are going to further depend on data. And then he said this he left the door open and window open for slowing down Interest rate hikes and he said 75 basis points like they've done the last two meetings now May be used again, but we're going to look at the data in that hint on possibly lowering it to because now lowering the future raises from say 75 basis points to maybe 50 half of a percent or even 25 basis points a quarter of a percent and They were talking about hey the the Fed funds right now between two and a quarter and two and a half By the end of the year some projections even some of theirs at the Fed which they'll have to update in September So we got to take a lot of this with a grain of salt Maybe about a percent higher than that. Well, you have September November and December meetings coming up So you can if you only have to go another percent total you can split that up with You know a couple well, you can split that up in (8/26)

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different ways The point is is that if you start to get less than the 75 we've had back-to-back That's going to be a tailwind for risk assets meaning things are going to be better and money is gonna in inflation will at least Slow or be more tame and not continue trajectory. It's higher and higher and higher. That's the big negative there and That was when the market got wind of that during the Q&A. That's when assets really took off So pull up a chart of anything and once you see the initial spike That is why because Fed POW left that open to say we could slow the increase of rate hikes going forward And that is a positive for risk risk assets now. We can't say he's correct yet, but that's why Frank has been bullish especially over the last several weeks because of in small caps particular but because if you just look at the Look at the data coming down We'll get to that in a minute But interest rates and such the feds going to have to reverse or pause and this is kind of the (9/26)

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beginning of that We'll see how it plays out. But this is a good start to that and that thesis Now the question the Q&A more than one you can't blame the reporters for trying to do this They're just doing their job. They have a job to do. We got to write about something in news of 24-7 you have to have talking points and different things of that nature So everybody wanted to try to try to play a drinking game with the word recession in my opinion So if we get power to say recession, we could take shots every time of it Bourbon or tequila, whatever your fix is That would be a lot of fun but he avoided it and he was professional about it and they were asking if he did say that he didn't think or feel like The US economy is in his recession right now, and he talked about listen you have a strong labor market you have strong wages he says when you When you create 2.7 million jobs throughout through this year Looking at the data That doesn't sound like a recession The economy is doing well (10/26)

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strong wages, but it's not keeping up with inflation But that's okay and everybody was because this is a marketing thing. You want to know hey if you hit the recession What does that mean? Is that does that impact the feds decision on the pace of interest rate hikes if we technically are in a recession? Which we'll find out tomorrow with the GDP Will that play an impact on? Their decision to either Paul's or they're not talking about cutting rates yet But the the rate at which they will increase them. So that's a big deal as well overall And then last what what he did say that caught my attention as well in addition to leaving the door open for the for slower rate hikes is he talked about not being as transparent going forward with basically trying to Foreshadow exactly the rate hike maybe he'll give a range and say hey, we're gonna go between 25 basis points and 50 or 75 at the next couple of meetings That was interesting to me because you can tell he's trying to kind of Wean off the (11/26)

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drug addict that the stock market is to the Fed right now and for good reason, right? I mean the Fed is juiced economy on paper the stock market for over a decade now And they're just been reversing course and raising rates I do Have to give him a little bit of credit for trying to do that We'll see how that moves going forward because again in he acknowledged this they don't meet next month and September between now and September They're gonna have a couple more readings on inflation. They're gonna have more jobs data's they're gonna have other economic data To go off of and he's still sticking to the data dependent and that's a good thing Overall it it wasn't a shock on the 75 basis point raise I was surprised that he's trying to say that he's going to be less Transparent that stood out to me most we can talk about this more when Frank gets back next week We can get his taken things but make no make no Distinction here or error the market is liking what they hear markets are rallying (12/26)

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off this Bitcoin is rallying off this and that's what you Want to pay attention to because there's just so much debt and so much negativity going on with inflation that nobody wants to have the finger pointed at them and blame and You I understand politics aren't completely involved in Well, I think they are completely involved. I know nobody likes to really hear that but my point is is that Depending on the interest rate Let's see you have a you have an election coming up in November and don't think that that's not going to play in a part To raising either by 50 or 25 or the comments. He's going to make going forward into an election year Just take that with a grain of salt like we need to take everything else Markets are rallying life is good. Enjoy that He did I'm gonna use this as a transition here because he was talking about the data that's going to come between now and the next meeting in September the see The inflation CPI core inflation all that kind of stuff, but he mentioned (13/26)

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that hey Commodities are coming down and have coming down recently and Frank has done a good job about highlighting this in the past as well You look at crude oil, which if we bring up Do this on the fly a little bit just over the last month and this is Brent crude But it's gone from basically a hundred and twenty down to a hundred now. It's hovering about a hundred seven natural gas is really the negative or the the eyesore there and a lot of that is Let me point that pull this up. Sorry and a lot of that is due because sanctions and different things over in Russia taking their oil and gas off Europe is is is just shooting themselves in a foot with trying to get off of Reliance of Russia there and they just don't have the tools to replace it which is why you're seeing prices sky-high We've had some incidences here LNG there's been some fires and different things at Pull it up here Some delays and Infrastructure problems that has has has caused that price hike as well. So it's not it's (14/26)

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not all the sanctions It's not all just one thing but natural gas has been continued to be higher It's actually ramping up but gasoline has come down. We saw the White House taking a victory lap The other day via Twitter about how gas is down 40 and 50 cents and I will say hey It's good lower the lower the better. I just think that we should put policies in place To lower it like it used to be because we we can we have we've already done it It's not like it's not like it's a an equation that hasn't been solved yet or a or a problem That doesn't have a solution that literally is painted across billboards and flashing lights. It's easy to see That's neither here nor there the point to all this is the commodity prices have come down But now some of them are starting to creep back up. However, those are all lagging So the next in next month's readings of different Inflation will see some effects and more than likely it'll come down Of course if it doesn't come down if somehow inflation is (15/26)

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higher month over month in the last reading we got at 9.1% all bets are off and markets are gonna go way down and you're gonna have to the Fed will be forced to To raise rates significantly and even in a faster pace But the odds of that happening because of commodity prices and such coming down are very very low So that's very bullish for the the stock market in general now in Addition to the lower I want to I want to point out a couple of things on commodity because in the short term I've been wrong on on oil Because I've been bullish on it and so even though it's come back lately and we got stopped out of Viper energy and the dollar stock Club that was frustrating and Now the oil is coming back a little bit because the fundamental issues behind the commodity prices like oil like natural gas like coal are Driven by politics and that's why you need to pay attention because natural gas prices shouldn't be near as high as they are but hey, you can argue that's that's a price worth paying (16/26)

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because Russia invaded Ukraine and We ought to sanction them and and try to cut them off of the world that's I'm not disagreeing I'm not pointing that out good or bad. I'm simply saying what's going on, but last weekend there was an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal about steelmakers shake off economic concerns and even though prices are down the main takeaway here is that CEOs are still bullish now. It's part of their job and I'm not saying they're all cheerleaders But you ought to be bullish for your own company You don't want to lie and you don't want to mislead people obviously not all times are good Sometimes you go through economic downturns Downturns recessions aren't the end of the world and as long as you can stay afloat and don't go to business The the strong survive and thrive of course but US steel companies are ramping up investments and new mills and side businesses brushing aside signs of weakness in the broader economy and Executives cited strengthening (17/26)

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demand from customers and auto and construction sectors Now we have this if you think about this in a great big t-chart Good and bad on the economy We're always going to have mixed signals because nothing is you know while the rising tide lifts all boats you're always going to have some standouts good and bad and one of the difficult things right now from an investing standpoint or an investor standpoint is You're you're going to hear good and bad all the time and a lot of times that can lead to inaction or maybe just keeping Everything on keep all your money on the sidelines. Don't let the negative headlines scare you completely to cash because It's just not over the in again. I'm talking about investing not trading if you're a trader That's a completely different ballpark a different arena different jerseys different colors all that kinds of stuff That's totally different from what I'm talking about Investing is over the longer term and I'm not saying longer term in the sense of oh (18/26)

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well, I'm early I've been wrong. So give me five years or give me ten years I'm taking a cheap shot here But Kathy would of our investments her continuation of five years and five years and five years We expect this at some point. It's got to go to four years, you know I mean, she's basically been saying that for over a year now from the 20 anyway I don't want to get off on that and she's not here to defend herself My point is is that investing you want to look over the long term? so even though I've been wrong dead wrong in the short term of oil prices, I Still think it's good to have exposure to the oil and gas sector and This commodity here. We're talking about steel makers. I just wanted to highlight a couple more things from here After steel prices rose sharply in the spring because the war in Ukraine Prices have retreated in recent weeks steel executives still say demand isn't Deteriorating and they pull some quotes from steel dynamics and new core but new core Has warehouses (19/26)

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data centers and other commercial buildings are driving demand For more steel non-residential construction like I just mentioned has been one of the most resilient markets New course vice president said we would expect that to continue in 2023 again Nothing wrong with being a glass half full type guy But here is a steel manufacturing company talking to you about stronger demand going for next year The takeaway from that is when you hear when you see short-term pain New core steel dynamics because of The pullback in prices recently their stock pullback too, I mean if we look at a chart And see March April April to May ish new core corporation was around $175 a share It dipped down to let's call it 100 I mean, I'm exaggerating a little bit is probably 105 and now it's closer to 130 But the takeaway here is when you're listening to analysts or doing your own research You want to look you want to do more work and more research when prices are falling not when things are going up that (20/26)

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that's The best simplest takeaway I can give and from real quick here personally this bear market this market crash that we've had However, you want to describe it You know indexes are down anywhere from 10 to 30 percent across the board or they were just a month ago coming out of this that's when you Your good investors are always going to make their name or make better returns coming out of or during bear markets And that's what you want to think about and hopefully that lesson is getting across now because I want to use this as an example this new core corporation is talking about demand for 2023 and Steel, let's see steel dynamics fabrication unit which produces building products was nearly this is for the quarterly revenue 600 million dollars That's up from twenty eight point four million earlier this year or you're a year earlier year over year, excuse me Take that with a grain of salt because coming out of the corona virus and lockdowns and things like that the economy so some (21/26)

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of These are a little skewed but Then of course this is last week and still dynamics and new core both fallen over 25% in three months and Cleveland Cliffs was down 46% However, Cleveland Cliffs CEO on Friday played down the threat of a recession and higher interest rates weighing on auto demand arguing that supply chain problems from kovin 19 related Outages over the past two years have left vehicle markets under supply Now listen to this stat from him. This is still the Cleveland Cliffs CEO The automobile Automotive industry could have produced eight million to ten million more Vehicles than they actually did over the past two years pinup demand cars trucks and SUVs has developed Now a lot of that is because of the chip sector and you we've and Frank has talked a lot about that but that is a wild number if Depending on interest rates like I said that just doesn't mean that eight to ten million are going to be bought right away But that's something interesting to take away from a (22/26)

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steel company and where they're seeing More demand or continued demand to help their businesses what I really like here is the non-residential construction that new core talked about and how you want to and Going into 2023 That's impressive and you want to pay attention to that now natural gas prices have continued to soar and why? because natural gas prices affect a lot of industry and I'm talking about Making Fertilizers steel cements plastics glass all that kind of stuff and coal like gas in high demand Coal is in arch coal reports on Thursday, which is going to be interesting to see and The other coal because what you have there is a lot of a lot of power plants and such Can switch if natural gas starts to spike they can then they switch over to coal To get their product finished and etc. Keep the lights on well We've taken about a third of coal out of production, basically Over the last several years there's under investment in there because you're not going to get businesses to (23/26)

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invest in it more when the government's Trying to get you off of it So now it's not just as easy to switch from natural gas to coal because of the huge run-up in coal because of lack of investment and strong demand and Sorry the the fire at Freeport LNGs in Houston knocked off that that caused prices to spike as well because they thought hey Prices are gonna stay excuse me. A lot of the exports that would go overseas We're gonna stay domestically here in the US which would help draw down Bring down natural gas prices would cause them to fall. However, since it's been so hot boy Here's a ticket for global warming people because it's been so hot the demand has been so strong now Let me without being a scientist or anything. You don't have to be qualified You don't have to have a white coat or a doctorate or a PhD to tell you this you want to know why it's too Damn hot right now everywhere Take a moment. I'll give you I'll give you two more seconds It's summertime. All right moving on So (24/26)

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the natural gas prices continue to spike and that's going to weigh on everything from manufacturing and that and that and that Sector entirely now, why do I tell you all this? I tell you all this because prices of commodities like natural gas and oil are going to either stay high or continue higher Over the medium to long term and when I say that I mean a couple years or until politics and policy change Those odds of that happening are not good right now. So that's why you want exposure to that. I know it's going to be volatile I'm sure some of you are yelling at me if you bought oil stocks a couple months ago. They've turned around They're starting to come back now But I'm telling you you want to pay attention to what the CEOs are telling you Couple that with economic environment and if demand continues to stay strong outside of a full-blown terrible recession where the brakes are just screeched Come to a screeching halt Commodity prices are gonna go higher and you want to be involved (25/26)

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on the owner operator side of those oil and gas companies All right. This has been a lot of fun as always. I can't I don't this is just the funnest thing I get to do I can't believe I actually get paid to do this. It's exciting and I appreciate you all for tuning in and supporting us Please give me your feedback again good or bad write me. Just don't ignore me Daniel at Curzio research calm That's Daniel at Curzio research calm. Have a wonderful weekend paying subscribers I will be doing frankly speaking and then we will talk to you back next week with the one and only Frank Curzio When he gets back for Wednesday's podcast Cheers Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (26/26)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - The Fed is holding the markets hostage.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream How's it going out there? It's Tuesday, June 14th, and you're listening to the Wall Street unplugged podcast It's great to have you here. Hello. I am your guest host Daniel Creech senior analyst here at Curzio research I'm the one that's filling in for the one and only Frank Curzio who normally hosts this podcast Tuesdays Wednesdays and Thursdays He is once again on the road. I believe he's in Orlando or maybe even further south than Orlando But he'll be out quick programming note. He'll be out today Tuesday and also Wednesday So you wonderful listeners are stuck with me yet again to listening to the world according to Creech I'll break down a few things on why you need to give a fly in Florida about it and how to navigate this goofy chaos And don't lose your cool. Don't panic. I know (1/27)

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that goes without saying that's never a good idea But it's very easy to do. So as we see market indexes move several percentages a day every trading day and I want to start with Last Friday June 10th when the consumer price index came in a little hotter than expected and This is important because and Frank does a great job about talking about this and we try to on Wednesdays when I join him we tight we try to talk about investors and and Sediment and what to look for and kind of how to navigate and go through the emotions and everything else because You have gone from this wording and Outlook from the leaders Fed policy leaders government policy leaders Presidents our president, excuse me his cabinet things and we've moved away since the end of last year towards inflation being transitory to oh Goodness, it's a lot higher than expected. We're 40 year highs now. We got to stop it well the way to stop that is to raise interest rates and What Frank has been talking about is what the (2/27)

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market wants to see or hear remember the market is always forward-looking and the unknown is one of the scariest things to investors and what that leads to is when you get nervousness and unknown and Goofy policies you get asked questions later and hit the sell button right now as we've seen so Friday the consumer price index Came in a little hotter than expected and this is key because what the market was hoping to see Hope used by Janet Yellen a lot like I talked about last week when it comes to inflation is not a strategy and as Frank has talked about if you have At least a leveling off of inflation prices the way they calculate them they the government statistics Then you can at least start thinking. Okay prices are high They're gonna remain high But as long as we've peaked we can look forward to the forward-looking mindset will be it's going to get better from here It's exhausting to know that the market pull up back across indices the Nasdaq Down over 30% the S&P 500 is now in (3/27)

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quote-unquote bear market, which is a great headline to sell down over 20% And many stocks moving well over 40% lower if you just Had the notion that okay, it's going to get better from here. You would see a slight bounce, but that wasn't the case and The inflation numbers weren't drastically higher than expectations. They were about a tenth of 1% I think it came in at 8.7 versus 8.6 year over year or 8.6 versus 8.5 And not the details don't matter But in the example I want to make and I want to talk about is that it was just remained elevated It was still higher. So now we have to wait further months into Different readings about hey inflation. We have to listen to the Fed meetings this week, which this is going right along here because Friday you have a huge market sell-off because of the hotter inflation numbers You have a great weekend. Hopefully after a Friday like that Monday comes and now the Wall Street Journal and everybody else is talking about how since inflation is so high (4/27)

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You're going to have to have the Fed which has its meeting tomorrow Again, you'll have me as a guest tomorrow They are going to anticipate it. They've already Forecasted or shadowed that they're gonna raise 50 basis points this week and 50 basis points next month during their meeting Well after the hot reading on Friday in the market downturn Wall Street Journal, I believe JB Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs are both expecting now a 75 basis point hike tomorrow instead of 50 And If that seems odd to you that and that is an increase that's a what that signals is in reality It's you know raising from 0.5 to 0.75 in one meeting No That's obviously going to have an impact. Nobody's nobody's sugarcoating that the interesting thing is that That notion triggered a market move of 4% in the S&P 500 yesterday and worse than that in the Nasdaq I think I read a stat something like week over week from yesterday Monday to the previous Monday I think the S&P is down 10% give or take that's a massive (5/27)

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move in a week And now you have as the individual investor me included you look at that and say, okay What is that signal that the Fed may have to go from 0.5 half of a percent to three-quarters of a percent in? the impact that that had wiping out 4% across the markets is That justifiable. Well, it's our reality. So it really doesn't matter. But if it doesn't make sense, if you think it's ridiculous You're absolutely correct. It is but how do you get here? How do you get in a situation where you have ridiculous as the norm Well, you have policies and you have something and I've alluded to this over several podcasts over time we basically have policies between the Wizard of Oz and the Willy Wonka Chocolate Factory and That's how you get when you have excess money and both everybody's to blame here in politics. Don't get me wrong but when you have Such loose monetary policies flooding the system and then that increased dramatically during the kovat lockdowns Now you have inflation and (6/27)

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the only way to do that is to get interest rates up and everybody's just coming around to that Well, you have so much Sloshing around that you're gonna have violent violent volatility like we've been seeing I'm not I'm not trying to be a smart aleck here, but you need to prepare and continue for these moves like this At some point it will reverse but obviously Inflation has not peaked just yet and you need the mindset of sustained and higher inflation going forward and just to show you How markets can react and just on any positive or less than bad news fast forward to today Tuesday the producer price index came out and Again, don't want to get too caught up in numbers. I know those are kind of hard to follow on audio Once I get on video when I'm doing solo, it'll be much easier to follow but the core producer price index Moved higher by point five percent and that was verse a point six expected so the headline can read hey, this is better than expected and That in addition to (7/27)

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yesterday's huge market sell-off futures bounced a little bit today You know before the open I'm programming note, you know We do these earlier in the morning to try to be timely and get them turned around and published in the evening The downside for me filling in here is that we're talking about the past now the expectations for tomorrow's rate hike and yet I'll have to record tomorrow morning before the Fed. I believe at two o'clock or two thirty in the afternoon makes their announcement So we're going to be shooting in the in the dark here just a little bit But we'll get through it just fine because the macro sense stays the same the and then the the May PPI You see you have core PPI just like you have can core You know that strips out food and energy on the consumer price index going back and forth here The point was is that that came in slightly higher and then the May PPI of point eight was in line with Expectations of point eight that is good news and you got a little bit of (8/27)

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relief rally Going forward here For at least the next several months If you have these rallies in the stock market, I know we had a week Fridays and last Friday and Monday were awful So I'm not I'm not sugarcoating. We've stopped out of a few things in portfolio in our portfolios just this week It's painful. I have I have holdings that are down. I've talked about galaxy digital I'm gonna get to crypto here in just a minute on its continued sell-off but Any rallies that you see in the stock market of a few percent stretched out over days or whatever That's when you want to look to lighten up on things that aren't set up for the next Several months to several years as the paradigm shift from the Fed has happened And what I mean by that is I don't care what you have tech bonds Alternative assets gold silver reevaluate everything and kind of start over from scratch and say hey During the last 10 years or so just to round off We've had easy money policies low interest rates that has now (9/27)

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changed and the Fed is going to increase rates at least By 50 basis points, maybe 75 there's rumors out there about a percent this week Who knows what they're gonna signal in their comments for next month. That's all going to cause massive volatility The load there, excuse me the road The easiest path is for market indices to continue lower, but you will have sectors that do well We've talked about energy. You will have bear market rallies That's when you want to reevaluate and starting to lighten up or get out of those positions That you don't feel comfortable with holding for whatever your time frame is One year five years ten years or longer depending on your age depending on your needs I Point this out because that is the new normal and it's not that is the complete reversal from what everybody has been used to For so long this by the dip mentality worked because of Fed policies now that that has changed And until that's changed in reality with them taking action and raising rates (10/27)

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and until they stop that and start quantitative easing again Either pausing and holding rates where they are or cutting rates and starting to Increase liquidity starting to print more money buy bonds and all that kind of stuff that they've been doing Until they signal that or actually do that That's the only thing that matters from a macro standpoint and that is why you want to focus on Great operating companies and it is now time to be boring it's been time to be boring but it's it's getting more clear by the day and I'll get into this more tomorrow since I have the luxury and the benefit of doing this back-to-back days I'll point out a few things and I'll give this way like Target and FedEx They've raised you know There's been some negative headlines around shipping and cost and and Target warning and things but recent actions have made significant dividend Increases now that's not going to get you rich overnight But it's something to look at from an investor standpoint when you know (11/27)

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The environment is going to be choppy and difficult as far as investing and making money You want to focus on? great operating companies with great management teams that can afford and will reward shareholders because that will attract a lot of money going forward as everybody else comes to the conclusion and the awareness That the by the dip mentality that we're used to the the old way this time is different because you have a fundamental Difference in interest rates rising and things like that that'll ripple across many different sectors But again energy is still performing well yet What happened on Monday in energy stocks? Well, it got thrown out the baby got thrown out with the bathwater because when you have market indices moving down 4% You're gonna have damn near everything In fact, I saw a great headline great tongue-in-cheek headline just to point out how wild things are at one point yesterday on Monday the 13th There was headlines that every stock in the S&P 500 was trading (12/27)

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lower at one point now I'm not saying they all closed lower. I'm sure out of 500 or whatever the hell there is It's not as simple as the name. It's like the Big Ten Conference in football. There's not ten teams I'm I don't think every single company closed down but at one point during the day everything was trading lower meaning a sea of red that's just a washout and unless you have Protection inputs are short You're not going to now you're not going to sidestep that but that's okay in the sense of when you know What you own when you own great great operating businesses and such like that I'll get into it a little bit more tomorrow with like I said the dividend raises and what to look for some characteristics But I continue to like even though I'm down personally I continue to like the Berkshire Hathaway Just because that's the most big boring stock that I believe is set up for inflationary times through hard assets pricing power cash flows etc, etc So that that's where that's how we (13/27)

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got here with hey, these got crazy policies. So, where are we going? Well, we're definitely headed for higher time or harder times and we'll have to wait and see on what the Fed does and what? Kind of guidance it gives the Fed to their credit and what they're trying to do is they've tried to steer this and they've been very forward so again, because I don't have the luxury of Getting to host this when they when the news actually breaks. I'll give you my opinion The 75% Excuse me, the 75 basis points increase that is now expected up from 50 basis points I read I believe it was just a month or so ago There was less than a 5% chance of that increase and now it's like a 95% chance So word has gotten out or something. So now I would I would be More shocked than not if they didn't raise by 0.75 tomorrow instead of a half. I Think their language needs to be that they're going to I think they'll signal a 1% increase next month in the minutes or the Conference transcript that comes out and I (14/27)

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think that would be a good thing because they're trying to Like I said in the past they absolutely pay attention to asset prices. They don't want to be responsible for market crashes nobody likes that the heat that that takes or will be caused by headlines and government officials and everything out the blame game is going to be Continued on for a long time because there's a hell of a lot of blame to pass around and So just just be prepared for that going forward and see what you know You're kind of this wait-and-see moment and it's okay to have cash on the sidelines It's okay to trim positions because you have to be emotionally ready to be able to see wild wild swings across market indices and one final point on why this is going to continue is because at the policy level You're not having any policy changes that are going to affect the reality of higher prices and I talked about this some last week and I'll get more into this tomorrow with some articles, but As long as you still have (15/27)

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government officials and policy blaming others and not talking about the core change for example on Friday the 10th last week when the consumer price index came out higher Biden was out in LA I believe at a port And he said he called out and he was viscerally angry and seeing that guy viscerally angry He says you wanted to you find out something and you want to you want to pop him you get so mad I think he was alluding to Punching them and he was talking about how there's nine global carriers for shippings around the world and they basically made three Good old boys and girls clubs and they've jacked up prices over a thousand percent recently and That's it that's that was the that was the great sound bite that everybody took and ran with and for good reason because That's telling you there's nothing easing about shipping costs There's nothing easing about energy costs or gas prices because he still blames everybody else instead of opening up more drilling here That's just the most (16/27)

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simple take away you can have and look at the wording and the narrative around what's coming up President Biden is about to go over to Israel and Saudi Arabia There was a release today from the White House and it made a point to say that he was invited by the king in Saudi Arabia and he's not even really concerned about energy prices or talking about that. He's talking about other things It's just a it's continuing to be a political game and you just have to accept that and understand it Don't let it drive you crazy figure out what they're doing why if you can try to understand the why and Position yourself to benefit that that's why we've been big on energies and different things like that energy companies devon-exxon and speaking well I'm so excited here when you you just wouldn't believe the adrenaline and endorphins and all the fun stuff that comes from getting to host a podcast but Harold ham is made an offer he already owns the majority of stock of course in continental resources (17/27)

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But just today he's made an offer. I think he owns 80 some percent of the stock if not more than that 80 to 83 and they're offering to about a 10% premium give or take to buy the remaining shares of Continental resources and that would be valued at about a 25 billion dollar deal now The the funniest thing about him tongue-in-cheek is that if you google Harold ham The image is probably gonna come up of the divorce check He had to write when he literally had to take up all the borders and basically every square inch of the space to write Out because he had to write out so much money This kind of deal Going forward is going to happen more and more often when you're gonna see private companies Look at public companies to take them out private that'll give investors some opportunity and we'll dig into that You want to look at huge insider ownership? The ability or the idea if they're gonna want to take those over and things like that But you don't see a deal like this going on. I doubt if (18/27)

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Harold ham is Obviously, he doesn't think that the public markets are going to benefit him as much as what this could taking it private when he's a majority Shareholder and he's gonna raise this 25 billion dollars a deal. Just just a fun stat and Going on around turmoil and things like that To wrap up here, let's turn on to one more thing and that is the cryptocurrency sell-off or market crash as a Friday Friday the 10th just this past weekend Bitcoin was give or take 30,000 31,000 you look at it on Monday and it's down to 24 Briefly went under 21. I don't even know where it is right now but this is a this is great ammo and low-hanging fruit for the haters and the Bitcoin bears and deservedly so so they should be taking victory laps because Just like regular markets and investors hate uncertainty There's a lot of uncertainty in the crypto space around regulatory issues and all that. I do think I agree that I've heard others say it. I think the idea about it being banned In the US or (19/27)

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anything like that cryptos and Bitcoin is past that especially Bitcoin However, there's still a lot of unknown regulatory issues going on what who's gonna enforce it which government group is going to oversee them Etc, etc. I'll get into some more of those bills tomorrow. Remember you have me for two days. This is just part one Yet when it boils down to it the low-hanging fruit and the easy target is the leverage and the worrisome over margin calls and leverage and to to just Give you a heads up on this The Celsius group the lending platform that had to stop withdrawals. They had 11 I think they had 10 or 11 billion dollars in loans and things like that according to their website They Have to come out with a headline saying hey because of these crazy unusual market circumstances or hectic circumstances They had to halt withdrawals Now there has to be a lot of leverage in these Decentralized finances where you don't have one main hub. Everything is spread out. You don't have a (20/27)

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controlling entity That's all great in theory and I'm not saying it can't work in situations. I'm simply pointing from a macro view That there has to be a lot of leverage inside these systems and Because of the rates they're paying so you could put you could you could park cryptocurrencies in these asset classes these funds these these Protocols what have you and earn five six eight percent or more a year now in a world where Zero percent interest rates have been dominating until very recently and even now with interest rates rising your your checking account isn't paying you anything Impressive or nothing like that yet So you always have to go into that very very cautiously when somebody is promising you Much much higher rates there has to be risk there. There has to be leverage and without getting into the details I'm I'm still reading about it more so I can understand it break it down in layman's terms But the short notes or the cliff notes version of this is When you put out the (21/27)

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word about hey, we have to halt withdrawals, what do you think that's going to do? That's gonna cause absolute panic and people are gonna in that that their token or Celsius is token I think dropped 70% very very quickly as you can imagine to make matters even worse Not many people have heard of that name probably unless you're really into crypto but by Nance had to with hold withdrawals for Bitcoin as well and What you want to see when stuff hits the fan is how the leaders react so CZs what he goes by the founder and CEO of by Nance Was putting out tweets over the last couple days about hey, we're having this issue we got and you can you can go to his Twitter account and Read these tweets and while it doesn't make the pain any less when you see your asset values tanking The the was the issue with by Nance and the withholding was only It was only affecting one area where you could pull Bitcoin and they point that out He CZ was pointing that out on his Twitter account saying hey, yes, (22/27)

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it's screwed up here But you can still go here. The funds are safe. He was trying to put the fire out Didn't happen because everything continued to sell off and then they got their issue resolved not nearly in the 30 minutes that they they Foreshadowed for or put out there But at least they got it resolved and as of now when I'm taping this Wednesday morning, or excuse me Tuesday morning It is resolved. Well When I I said leverage I said margin margin because micro strategy and the Michael Saylor CEO Who is one of the most well-known people in crypto? Now there's headlines around. Hey, they're down about a billion dollars or more on their crypto holdings. They hold it on the book He has been a trailblazer for corporate America to try to convince people and CEOs to hold Bitcoin on their balance sheet And now the industry is saying hey, you know of the roughly hundred twenty nine thousand Bitcoins that they they hold 20 26 30 thousand of those ish give or take are subject to margin loans (23/27)

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and things like that. I believe I read 96,000 of those aren't Under under collateral eyes or Subject to margin calls, but we'll see and then again, what do you want to see the leaders Michael Stratt? Michael Saylor put out a statement saying hey, we don't expect to get anything on margin calls And he's when you look at his Twitter account He's still acting like you would never know that crypto Bitcoin is down 66 67 percent from its previous highs of damn near 70,000 listening to this guy That doesn't mean that he's right and everything's gonna be rosy and things are gonna reverse right now and go back up But it's somebody you want to pay attention to that has a lot of skin in the game and makes a lot of great points I'm not saying he's completely right, but I'm sure as hell not ready to admit He's completely wrong with Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general either I know I don't want to put words in Frank's mouth, but I know he's still very bullish on it We talked just last week why we (24/27)

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still have a lot higher price target on Bitcoin and send us your feedback You can yell at us. You can vent at us specifically me if you're gonna send us a bad email Daniel at Curzio research.com that's Daniel at Curzio research.com because in the short term in the right now in the next 24 hours Or a month who knows what's gonna happen? We have so much chaos going on because of the goofy policies we've had for so long that it's going to take time to play out and unfortunately cryptocurrencies stock markets the unknown and we have to wait and see on the Federal Reserve what they do and what they hint at doing In the coming months before you can really grasp so don't don't stress on needing to do something today I know a lot of positions are down if it's if you're emotionally attached that much or you're that upset Then maybe you have too much exposure and look to trim those some of the best advice I got from a brilliant gentleman was Think in terms of a third So whether good news or bad (25/27)

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news is happening whether stocks are going up stocks are going down assets are going up assets are going Down if you're buying or selling a third at a time That's really going to help you manage your emotions and think clearly to try to navigate what's going on That that's that's some of the best advice I can give you as well and I'm just passing that along don't give me credit for that Alright, look at the time time flies when you're having fun again more excited than ever to have back-to-back days so send me your feedback questions anything else Daniel at Curzio research.com and We will wait and see what the Fed changes their mind on between well, we'll see if anything leaks tonight Tuesday into tomorrow's podcast ahead of the Fed meeting and all that kind of such but hang in there Do not panic. The world is not ending and if it does you have nothing to worry about anyway So have a cold one Relax, take a few deep breaths and we'll be right back here again tomorrow to navigate it and (26/27)

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help you find great ideas to help Make you some money Cheers Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (27/27)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - A 'red wave' won't save your portfolio.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream. What's going on out there? It's November 8th. I'm Frank Courageous, the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break down the headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. Happy Election Day. Help all of you Democrats and Republicans go out and vote. And you need to because the future of American democracy is at stake. I think I've heard that like a million times in the past week. As you know, I'm a Republican. I think sometimes when you're Republican, people are afraid to admit that because, you know, everyone thinks you're some crazy right-wing conservative, which you know I'm not. But being a Republican these days makes me a racist, a white supremacist, which I'm not sure what that means, by the way. I know what it means. I just haven't seen it in my lifetime, but that's (1/27)

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what I am now. As MSNBC says, Republicans are not very bright. Also called out Hispanics and Blacks who are voting Republican that they are the product of misinformation, meaning that they're not smart enough to do their own research and vote accordingly. Or have a view called white suburban Republican women cockroaches. This is what we are. But I didn't know I was such an asshole because I was part of a party that is Republicans. Where the things I represent, I just want my kids to be or not be conditioned by teachers who have an agenda. I want to be able to take my kids to New York City again, which I can't do because it's not safe. I want criminals to stay locked up when they commit a crime. I want police on the streets to protect everyone while really punishing the 2% who abuse their badge. And I want pretty much I think what everyone wants. Your kids or my kids have a better life than me. In a capitalistic society that rewards hard workers. But I guess according to CNN, MSNBC, and (2/27)

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left wingers, that makes me an illiterate idiot or white supremacist. Kind of insulting because I have certain views. I'm sure that's not the same views that everyone has when they listen to this podcast. But we could agree on a lot of things that we want to see with our country. And talking politics kind of makes you want to cringe sometimes and get some emails coming in, whatever. You know, I always like debates. And talking politics is always a heated discussion now. Right? It's like you got to hate the other side no matter what. And I get it, especially if you're watching TV or the media, the networks. Holy shit. I mean, there's no like happiness. You can't get along. You know, many of us support a lot of the things that we want, especially when it comes to our children. Education. And safety. But instead of getting heated all the time, especially today is going to get nuts. Or politicians that really, look, I mean, they don't give a shit about you and me. I mean, they spent a (3/27)

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record 16 billion on these midterm elections, which that kind of money doesn't come from you, me, middle class voters. It comes from major corporations and billionaires who are what? Trying to maintain power and get more wealthy. They want to piss off people as much as they can. But for the next few years, you should be focusing on you, your family, your wealth. In terms of adjusting your portfolio based on the new policies that will be enacted or changed or even left alone since we're going to have a split government, most likely, which is probably going to set to win the House. Maybe they're going to take the Senate. We'll see. By the time you listen to this, you might know. Who knows? But that's what smart investors do. They don't take off work and hold up signs and protests. They figure out ways to capitalize how to benefit from these policies, regardless of their personal beliefs, because that's how you create generational wealth. At the end of the day, it's about you and your (4/27)

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family. And one of the biggest issues right now, which we all know, is inflation. And we had the Fed tell us last week, straight up, right to our faces, just like Powell has been saying the whole time, that they're going to be raising rates. They're not pausing. It's going to continue well into 2023, at least through the first quarter, because it's the only way to control inflation. Meaning there is zero chance of us having a soft landing since the Fed can't make inflation fall near its 2% target unless they destroy demand. And how do they do that? Raising rates and tricking its balance sheet. So it's interesting, because after the Fed meeting last week, Goldman Sachs, the ultimate rich research firm, released a note to its clients saying it now expects earnings to be flat in 2023, next year flat. Something they've been talking about for a while now, at least the past two months. It's a big change from the 10% growth Goldman Sachs predicted earnings would grow this quarter in Q3. And (5/27)

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were they up like 2% thus far? So more companies yet to report, but more than 70%, 75% have reported already. Maybe a little more than that. But they're down big, excluding energy, whose profits are up over 100% year over year. But for Goldman Sachs, it's an even bigger change from the 7% growth in earnings it was expecting for next year, 2023. Which highlighted through October that it's insane to believe that earnings are going to grow this year and also next year. They have to come down sharply. Now, this is a major story that few are talking about. And that's my opinion. I don't see it a lot. And I follow this stuff in the media, where I said earnings for S&P 500 need to be adjusted by at least 25 to 30%. And when I'm listening to conference calls, I'm seeing earnings, I'm seeing these estimates, the one that you see on TV, where they lowered sharply so they could beat them, right? 70% of companies beat earnings estimates. If they had the same estimates from three months ago, 80% (6/27)

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would have missed. Nobody pays attention to that. But I saw this Goldman story mentioned through numerous media outlets. Read about three or four of them. And how they expect zero growth in earnings next year. A very big story. But also in that report, which I have access to, it was not mentioned in the media reporting, Goldman said that if we have a recession next year, which by the way, I think almost every economist is now predicting. I mean, I think it was 2007, it was something like 25% of the economists predicted a recession and we had one. So anything over 25, 30% is like 100%. I think the estimates right now are calling for 35, 40% now, right? So it's almost guaranteed everybody's going to have a recession. But Goldman said in that same report, which was not mentioned any place, and I have access to it, that earnings could fall 11% to $200 if we have a recession. That's pretty crazy. And that's just the $200. Now, what does that $200 mean? I've been explaining to you and trying (7/27)

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to make it easy as possible that that's the number of all the S&P 500 earnings combined. So when they say that S&P 500 is trading at 70 times forward earnings, it's price divided by earnings. You take the price S&P 500, this is the number in earnings that they've divided by to get to the 17 times, 18 times, 16 times, they compare it. So now Goldman is saying it could fall 11% to 200 if we have a recession. That's not zero percent growth. That's a massive decline of 11%. Now, to put this in perspective, at $200, which is sharply lower than what they're predicting today at 237, which is the consensus estimate of all these analysts, which is consensus, they put it together, much, much lower, but it's still 25% higher than the peak earnings we saw at the end of 2019, so pre-COVID. Or before the government started to inject $11 trillion plus into our markets, initiate a massive bond buying program, which is called quantitative easing, and lowered rates to zero. Now, next year, what's going (8/27)

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to happen? The Fed's going to be aggressively shrinking its balance sheet. That's QT, known as quantitative tightening, where they're going to be removing as much of this $11 trillion in liquidity as possible from the economy, while hiking rates, where short-term rates will average easily more than 4%, probably closer to 5% for the entire year. Again, they were below 2% these rates in 2019 when we hit peak earnings of 160, and the Fed was aggressively buying bonds back then. Different environment. And for Goldman Sachs, its worst case scenario, if we have a recession, is for S&P 500 earnings to fall to just $200, which is still extremely aggressive. But again, it's a story I'm not seeing mentioned a lot. The massive collapse in earnings per share in the S&P 500 next year, which is not factored into the equity markets right now. That's why you're seeing so many stocks report and getting destroyed. Some of them are beating estimates and not seeing that huge gain unless they were down (9/27)

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further. But it's not being priced in. I know. I'm listening to the conference calls. I'm listening to the companies. Some of them it's priced in, not everything, but some of them it's priced in. You may think just because the stock has fallen 70% that it's priced in, but it's not. Especially since some of these stocks are still trading at 70 to 100 times forward earnings. But it's not being factored into equity markets right now. Because if you look three months ago, analysts like Goldman Sachs were predicting earnings per share to rise 17% over the next 18 months, so through 2023. I mentioned earlier, 10% in Q3, 7% next year. And just what, a few months later? They're now predicting basically no growth? I mean, that's a massive change in just a few months. And why they changed it? Because they're seeing the fast deterioration of fundamentals across most industries, including housing. Holy shit. Talk to your local real estate agent. Talk to anyone in this industry. It's insane right (10/27)

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now. It's like it was a faucet that was just completely shut off. Not slow. That's what happens when you raise rates so fast. Completely just shut off. Goodbye. If you have cash, you can buy a house. If not, good luck. Look at what happened to technology companies. Look at what happened to semiconductors. Look what happened to autos. Prices coming down tremendously. Demand shrinking up. Seeing current loans becoming delinquent. Right into levels you haven't seen in many, many, many years. Look at consumer discretionary. Look at retail with the inventory levels. And it's going to hit industrials and defense sectors soon enough. So how do you play this market where we've already seen tons of stocks fall by 20% plus this year, only to rally 16% from July into August and then collapse through September and then rise 14% in October, which is the best month for major industries over 40 years, holy cow. It's not easy. But I want to take you through a situation. I need you to pay attention to (11/27)

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this. Because there's a company called Atlassian. The symbol is T-E-A-M team. Maybe now I've heard of this company. It's a massive software cloud company where its platform helps businesses, especially ones with huge development teams, which is massive now, right? Helps them work more efficiently and the technology is awesome. Now this was a $450 stock a year ago before most cloud software names got nailed and in June, the stock was trading around $180, came down sharply along with the rest of the market and again, this area got nailed. So it was down a lot from its highs, but still selling at extreme valuation. This is where Jeremy Terrenova, editor of our Moneyflow Trader newsletter, where its main strategy is to buy long dated puts, told the subscribers to take a position. Hear me out. Because if you're looking for your portfolios to be safe, if you're looking to make a killing when stocks go lower, listen to this situation. I'm not cherry picking here. Okay, I'm using this. This is (12/27)

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the latest example. So our recommendation was to buy the December 16th, 2022 $140 put, which is basically betting that the stock will fall below $145 a share over the next six months, okay, the stock was trading around $180 at the time. Buying puts is not shorting a stock where your risk is unlimited, or you're going to lose a fortune if the stock takes off just maybe in a couple of weeks or a couple of months or you bought just before October. It's a put where the most you could lose the money you spend on the put, whether it's $500,000, whether it's $5,000 or whether it's $500, depending on how big your portfolio is, now what happened to the stock? Well, as soon as Gini took his position, we saw a massive rally, which was bad, in July to August. And Atlassian participated, surging from $180, remember, she has to bet for this thing to fall below $145, it went from $180 to $275, less than two months. So the put was worthless at first, still owned it, but the stock then fell at $230, (13/27)

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right, sold off a little bit with time mark in September before going back over $250 a share when we had the massive rally in October, but then at the end of October, a week ago, the company reported earnings and it was a disaster, which we're going to continue to see, because estimates are way, way too high for most companies, the guidance was also a disaster, which showed that sales and earnings are going to grow much lower than expected, this is the worst thing, this is the death of any super expensive growth stock, the worst thing is to report and say not only that you missed estimates, you can say, well, we missed estimates and contracts were late or whatever, but we're going to make that up, no, they missed estimates and they also warned, okay, the only reason why you have massive premiums on these stocks is because you're growing much faster than the overall market, once that growth stock stops, look out, your stock gets destroyed, we see time and time again in a market where (14/27)

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the fed is trying to destroy growth in order to control inflation, it's going to continue to happen, so the stock crashed close to 30% and continued moving lower, falling below the $145 price, so the put was in the money, Jenny sold half the position for around an 80% gain on Friday, the stock continued to fall on a Monday, she sold the second half position, which was yesterday, for around 100% gain, but the stock now trading at 120, funny enough at 120, right, today's price at last thing is still trading over 100 times next year's earnings, even though the stock lost 70% of its value already. We're seeing that among many, many technology stocks, especially software, especially fintech names that had these insane valuations, maybe thinking, well, they're down already, they're probably not going to go lower. Now, imagine if you shorted that stock at 180 instead of buying the put, one month later it was at 280, so now you're sleeping on a park bench trying to get your wife to unpack her (15/27)

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bags because she's leaving you because you just lost your life savings and your whole portfolio, instead you could buy the put, which is six months, much safer strategy where losses are limited to the amount of money you put into the stock, and in a market that saw in that timeframe, the six month put, we saw a 16 month rally in like a month and a half, two month period, and in another 14% rally in October, Gini was still able to book massive profits on this position, which is pretty incredible. Now, let's take this further back. Over the next year, what do you think we're going to see? I think we're going to see probably the most volatile market in my 30 year career, maybe outside of crazy events like COVID and the credit crisis, but it could be even more volatile than that. Because the Fed is raising rates by its fastest pace in the history of the modern Fed era. They're in uncharted territories, they've never done this, and the team that's doing this told us a year ago that it was (16/27)

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going to be transitory, which is insane, and they're aggressively raising rates and plan to when the market is crashing, which is unprecedented. Usually the Fed lowers rates when the market crashes, but as you know, we're in a different environment, one that we haven't seen in over 40 years, where inflation is completely out of control. In order to control inflation, the Fed has to destroy demand, which means the Fed can't stop raising rates, which is exactly what Powell told us. Everybody thought, oh, they'd slow up, and he said, for anyone thinking that we're going to pause anytime soon, forget about it. His very first line was, our main goal, 100%, is to get inflation back to 2%. Goldman Sachs just released a report yesterday and said at the end of 2024, not next year, the end of 2024, that's when they expect rates, or the CPI, inflation, to go to 2.7%. That's how difficult it's going to be. So what does this mean? You're going to continue to see these markets where stocks fall (17/27)

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sharply, then bounce back because there's going to be a little optimism and we're done, but are likely to continue to hit new lows. When I look at it, it's inevitable. I mean, yes, we'll likely see a small pop post-election since split governments are usually favorable for the markets. Maybe we see some inflationary indicators moderate in January or February. Many are going to believe the Fed's going to stop hiking, or even maybe lower, which we saw in October was definitely not the case, and the Fed never said that was going to be the case, just something that we thought, but as long as the Fed is tightening and keeping rates at that level and maintaining quantitative tightening policies, when you're seeing these gains or these quick moves up to the upside, they're going to be used to take profits, just like the opposite happened. The Fed kept rates near zero for 12 years and was buying bonds, which is quantitative easing, every pullback was met with aggressive buying for 12 years. We (18/27)

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fall just by, just by, just by these things more, just keep buying, buying these growth sites, just by, just by, right? You didn't want to fight the Fed. Now it's the opposite. I mean, you didn't fight the Fed then, you shouldn't be fighting the Fed now. Because as we see stocks rally into months or whatever, we're going to see people take profits, and as long as the Fed continues with this policy, which they said they will, and they're not going to lower rates, it's going to be a market where people and institutions are constantly going to take profits every time we see stocks go higher, and we're seeing it right now. I look at the inflows, outflows. If you listen to my newsletters and the videos that I do, I'm going to go over that tomorrow, because the research advisory members, you're seeing money being removed from the market like crazy right now, two straight weeks. Empty this every week. And by buying long dated puts or betting that a stock will fall 15% from the current price (19/27)

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over say the next six, nine months, you want to happen earlier in a cycle rather than later, you could reap incredible rewards where gains could be 2X, 3X, even 5X, which Jenny has showed us subs over the past two years. Now, as you know, past performance is no indication of future performance. The Fed could come out tomorrow and say, you know what? We're going to start lowering rates all of a sudden. You have to change, right? The data changes, you have to be able to change, but I don't see that happening. If your long stocks want to continue to hold some of your favorite names long-term, like I'm hearing from most retirees, right, that's what they do in their portfolios. I've heard from three or four people in the past week, right, should I remove all my money from the market? What should I do? Instead, if you learn how to buy long dated puts, the strategy is going to help you sleep at night. It helps you generate gains and sometimes massive returns when the stock market falls, or it (20/27)

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happens to be incredibly volatile, which we are going to see next year, much, much worse than what we're seeing right now over the past few months. You may be thinking, Frank, is this already priced in? A 15, 20% pullback may seem like a lot, especially as many names are already down 20% plus from their highs. Well, let's take a sample just from today, because a couple of big names reported, like Take-Two, this is in our portfolio, we booked gains in it a while ago, they just reported, near it's 52, we look low, a little bit off of it. Take-Two reported terrible earnings. It's down 17% one day today. This is today. TripAdvisor is down 21% today. Lyft is down 17% today, one day. We're going to see a lot of these through 2023 since earnings estimates for many of these companies are way, way, way, way too high even right now. But Goldman Sachs is saying the worst case scenario recession, we're going to see 11% decline in earnings to $200. And in 2019, we peaked at 160. We can go a lot (21/27)

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further low on earnings and that's not being priced in. There's a lot of companies that are still saying, hey, we have pricing power. We're okay. We're good. The same thing what Walmart said, same thing that Target said, the same thing that all the semiconductors said, same thing all the home builders said, until all of a sudden demand shut off like a light and that's what you're seeing. You're starting to see it in autos right now. Used cars are starting to crash used car prices. You're starting to see it. That's what happens when demand falls off a cliff. You get away with it for a little while, but eventually that big pile of money that you had because of all the fed shit that they did is getting smaller and smaller and smaller and you're noticing and you start cutting back dramatically and it's happening and it's going to happen a lot faster than people think. It's going to open up a great buying opportunity, it will, and you're seeing buying opportunities in some areas. In some (22/27)

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areas. That's when my job gets fun because not every single company within industry is going to go higher and maybe one goes up 80% over the next 12 months and another one goes up 60%. You're going to see winners and losers, stocks that are down 20%, 30% within an industry and other names that are up 20%, 30% in the same industry based on how they restructured debt, how much debt they had, their balance sheet, what they're looking to do. They're probably going to get more aggressive when other companies are still going to be cutting. How much are they cutting? That's my job to figure out what are the best stocks out there and there's some that are showing signs that, okay, we're pretty close to the bottom here. Balance sheets are strong. These guys should do okay. But last thing, a lot of technology stocks, a lot of industrials are trading at crazy valuations. These earnings are way, way, way too high, which is going to open the door to optimism going into quarters for some of these (23/27)

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companies and when they report, like Atlassian, like Take-Two, like Trip, like Lyft, over the last day from yesterday to today, many stocks are going to get annihilated and you can make an absolute fortune with this strategy. To be interested in learning more about buying long dated puts in a simple strategy, you can learn very quickly. You write in your online brokerage account, you describe the money flow trader, you lower the price in this newsletter because it's more, I want to say a credit newsletter, it's not, anyone could use it, but it's $5,000 a year, pound at the table for people to buy this in November, December, January. But in this stands a high price tag, we load it to $4.99 for three months so you could test the waters for $4.99. And this offer's on our site, available at Curzio Research Files if you're interested. And the description includes full put buying guide, the full thing Ginni wrote, which explains very simple terms, how to buy long dated puts. I'm pushing this (24/27)

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strategy, I'm forcing this strategy on you because I know it's going to help you, it's going to help you sleep at night and it's a chance to really, really, really make a killing. So what I'm doing with my portfolio, describe it like shooting fish in a barrel. Many of the subscribers are killing it this year, while most are down 25% plus on the year since. If you talk to most people, they only have long exposure, that's all anybody knows. Like, oh, I don't know how to short the markets. You don't want to short the markets, that's for professionals. You may think they're short something, but they're hedging themselves in other ways that you don't know. You don't want to short the markets because like I said, with this position that she was right on, and she'd been over a six month period that at last thing before, and she was right, if you short the stock would have got annihilated and got margin calls in the first month, that's what you want to avoid. And if you believe stocks have (25/27)

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bottomed and it's not going to be volatile next year, don't buy this product, stay long and start buying here. However, if you believe it's going to be really rocky next year, tons of volatility, this is the best strategy I know of, use it for my portfolio. And using it is not just about, oh, let me protect my portfolio. It's about making a fortune, being greedy as stocks fall, or basically just readjust to the new norm of much higher rates and no more quantitative easing from the Fed. And they have to adjust and they're not close to adjusting. Listen to what the Fed is saying. Don't fight the Fed and be smart here. Okay guys, questions or comments, I'm here for you, frankcurzioresearch.com. That's it for me. Really appreciate all the support and I'll see you tomorrow with Daniel Creech to break down a bunch of earnings, oil, and lots of other fun stuff, and also the election results. Hopefully, there'll be election results tomorrow, like there's supposed to be. We're hoping. It (26/27)

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doesn't take a lot of days. Anyway, questions, comments, I'm here for frankcurzioresearch.com. I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care. Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility. (27/27)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Should you be allowed to invest in Russia?.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street. How's it going out there? It's Wednesday, March 9th, and you're listening to the Wall Street Unplugged podcast, normally hosted by Frank Curzio. But he is busy today on the road. He is headed south, down south in Florida to Miami, also known as Miami for some locals around here. But yes, he is away on business for a day or so, quick trip. So it is I, hello and welcome, Daniel Creech, senior research analyst here at Curzio Research, filling in behind the mic for the one and only Frank Curzio. Normally, I join Frank every Wednesday and we kick back and forth the hot topics, whatever is moving markets, give our opinions, some stock ideas, things like that. Today, obviously, it's just a monologue for me and no surprise. I want to talk about Russia, Russia, Russia. I know this is (1/27)

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dominating headlines. Markets are in rally mode today, which is good to see more headlines around peace talks. Maybe Ukraine is not pursuing the NATO membership. Maybe they're going to take a neutral. We've got to take all these with a ton of salt because over the last couple of weeks, markets have been wildly swinging up and down based on headlines such as this. Hey, we're going to meet peace talks. All the peace talks didn't go good. Oh, they're going to meet for another round of peace talks. It goes up. Peace talks didn't go anywhere. There's more bombings, more just... It's awful. Again, I don't mean to make light of this. I've said this a few times, but it's genuine. I don't mean to make light on what's going on, the tragedy that's going on. I do want to look at this and talk about this from an economical perspective and a few perspectives from Wall Street all the way down to the individual investor. I want your feedback on this because there's a lot of open-ended questions here. (2/27)

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There's not necessarily... There is some takeaway. I can talk about good businesses and one that's caught my radar that I've been talking to Frank about. No doubt you've heard of it, and it's going to tie in with the Russia and doing business with Russia. Everybody needs to understand the importance, in my opinion, of A, the economy in general for people and how it affects everybody. I'm talking worldwide and individual and local areas, as well as capitalism and the structure to help support that. I'll do my best. We're in no way going to solve all these problems today. In under 30 minutes, it might spill over into some other conversations, but I do want your feedback on this, good or bad. Daniel at CurzioResearch.com. That's Daniel at CurzioResearch.com, starting with Wall Street. Let's go to the most wonderful, nice people on Wall Street, the largest, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. They made some news as a Bloomberg article reported on March 3rd that they were actively either (3/27)

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buying and selling different bonds related to Russia, either Russia sovereign bonds, government bonds issues, and or corporates, like their oil and gas companies bonds. No doubt this is a sticky subject, to say the least. The macro part of my conversation here is I want you to think from a perspective from each position, so from a Wall Street banker to a corporation to an individual shareholder. We'll go through these. I want to see where we draw the line on this good versus evil, or should you have the option or not to, i.e. invest and or try to make money from this situation. Wall Street is a cutthroat business. Everybody knows that. Don't let it fall on deaf ears, even though you can nod along and think so. Just remember that they are in the sheer business to separate everybody else from their money and make profits. That's not all bad to be driven by profits in general. It can lead to bad decisions or greed and or things like that, but that by itself to be motivated to profit, to (4/27)

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build your own entity and then help others through that as you grow is not a bad thing. So I'm not anti big banks there. This has caught some attention because A, are they avoiding sanctions like this? So Senator Elizabeth Warner has come out and pointed to, and I got a quote here because JP Morgan put out a research report on, hey, here's kind of the cleanest dirty shirts if this gets back to good standards. If you see some relaxation in sanctions, if things ease up, the war ceases, we get quote unquote back to even somewhat on the road to normal. Here's some stocks, here's some oil and gas companies, here's some bonds that are trading next to nothing that you can make great money, great return quickly if all this thing kind of turns around. Now, no doubt this caught the attention of one of Wall Street's biggest critics, Senator Warren. And she says, quote, giant Wall Street banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs never miss an opportunity to get richer, even if it means capitalizing (5/27)

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on Russia invasion of Ukraine and undermining sanctions placed on Russian businesses. Here's a key fact because you can always fall back on, hey, we're following the rules. You make the rules. We just follow them. Evidently, up to this point, there's no reason to believe that these sanctions that have been announced and are implemented against Russia and Russian businesses, that doesn't mean that these bonds necessarily are off limits or are under those same sanctions. So you have an easy question here. Well, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, are they doing anything wrong? According to the sanctions, not necessarily. Is it morally wrong? Now, that's a slippery slope because, hey, is this money going in to support Russia and does that directly funnel through and just support or encourage more behavior of this invasion and the destruction and the war we're seeing? I'm not saying that there's an easy answer right there. I'm simply saying from a black and white right and wrong issue, if those (6/27)

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aren't under the sanctions on trading those bonds, then, quote unquote, it's not wrong. But that doesn't mean it's necessarily okay. It doesn't mean they should be. JP Morgan put out on that March 3rd Bloomberg article that they had traded roughly $200 million in bonds. That's not anything for those guys, given the sheer trillions in assets it has. It shouldn't shock anybody that Wall Street's doing that. It certainly looks bad, especially if you're Jamie Dimon or the Goldman Sachs people because you're just giving an opportunity for anti-Wall Streeters or non-capitalists to take a swing at you just like Warren. I mean, she has a good argument here. This looks terrible. Hey, it looks like you're undermining Russian sanctions. You're just about profit. You don't care about anything. That's not necessarily a good look. So look for the PR and how they'll be – look for the public relations in PR and what they're going to try to do to get in front of that. I'm sure Jamie Dimon is going to (7/27)

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make some statements and or just express how, hey, they're trying to help the individuals in Russia and their clients. They have a few districts of responsibility. We'll see how that unfolds. But that's got my attention because all the sanctions and how it disrupts markets and things of that nature. We hold Goldman Sachs and Curzio Research Advisory. It's up a lot. It's pulled back a lot lately. Yet this is one of the reasons you own a huge investment bank is because they have connections everywhere and they're going to try to make money no matter what. I'm not saying this is good or how much they have. I haven't seen specific numbers. I'm just kind of pointing to reality and wanting your thoughts on this and those situations. Would it make you – if you were a shareholder in JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs, would it make you want to sell those shares or would it make you want to buy those shares kind of knowing, hey, nothing's off limits. These guys are going to do whatever they have to if (8/27)

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you weren't already a shareholder. That's an interesting question and a good transition to the next one. From an individual standpoint, should you be allowed to or should you even think about buying Russian stocks? A week or so ago when CUPE, known as CUPE, was on as Frank's guest, they kind of jokingly and said, hey, the most contrarian investment right now would be to buy Russian equities. They have been absolutely decimated. There was a great article in Zero Hedge on March 6 and it just highlights one of these Russian equities. I'm going to butcher the name, of course, but it has – I'm assuming this is trading on the Russian – in Russian markets. But they point to Novotek, PJSC, it's Russia's second largest natural gas producer and the world's seventh, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, largest publicly traded by natural gas production volume. It collapsed from $215 a share on February 16 down to $0.65. $215 to $0.65 in a matter of just a few days. That is going to cause (9/27)

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havoc, obviously, in the local economy. If you're a Russian citizen, if you're a Russian shareholder, a trader, I don't know if anybody's seen the viral – and again, anything you read or see, I mean, I scour headlines in different news sources all over throughout the day and you've got to take everything with a grain of salt. The video that went viral about a Russian equities trader on camera at a news anchor place being interviewed and opened a beer and basically cheers to the end of opportunity and the end of the economy over there and said he was going to be – I think he made the joke that he was going to go back and work as a clown like he did 20 years ago or something. I mean, think of it from that perspective. If you're over there and you're just a typical citizen working, you either A, don't know or don't care. Maybe you support the world, maybe you don't, but it's having a drastic impact on you and your local economy through the banking system, through the payment system, (10/27)

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through the ATMs with bank runs, through your currency absolutely collapsing on a worldwide stage. Just imagine the chaos that's going on locally there. Then you have some hints and some headlines about protests there and they're going to crack down on that. It's just utter chaos. These stocks, this one particular goes from 215 down to 65 cents a day and then JP Morgan is writing this out and kind of just saying, hey, should you buy these or here's kind of the ones to do. From an individual standpoint, we've talked about a couple of ETFs, the RSX and that's the VanEck Russia ETF. RSX is the symbol and then you have the ERUS, which is the iShares MSCI Russia ETF and that's ERUS. These don't even trade anymore. Let me give you a perspective on just how things can evaporate quickly. This is from the iShares by BlackRock and this is their fact sheet for the ERUS and this is from December 31st, 2021. Obviously things can change in a few months. At the time it had net assets of 500 and call (11/27)

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it $60 million. That's essentially wiped out. They're not creating shares. You're not even allowed to buy this. If you're an investor and you have this money, what now? Are you just out your total investment? Are they just going to hold on these? I'm sure there's been some updates. I'm talking from a macro standpoint as an investor to think about how to process this and how this ripple effect works through economies. Are these fund companies, VanEck and iShares, just going to continue to hold these and just kind of wait on sanctions to see if this blows over, to see what happens or what escalates further with this war? When will they reopen and retrade if ever? The Russian stock market, I believe the currency is supposed to start trading today if it didn't already. I was seeing those headlines over the last couple of days. I believe the market was still going to be closed over there, which is what's going on over a week now. Again, just utter chaos and craziness there. Question, should (12/27)

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you be allowed, should iShares and should these VanEck funds, should they pull this? Should they just say, hey, we're going to write all this off? We're sorry. There's risk when it comes to investing. This is a special situation because it's an invasion, it's an act of war, it's death, it's destruction. So, hey, sorry, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Hopefully you're not broke off of this. What do you think about that? Is that okay? Should it be there and it should be up to the individual? Where do you draw that line on saying, hey, what if the world gets better? We'll get back to that in a minute and have sanctions ease because then you could see a real flux or an influx of capital or a race there and see prices rise from the ashes and skyrocket. That's two funds there that we've talked about. From a company standpoint, there's a great article in the Wall Street Journal today and the title is, it's on A12 for those of you following along at home, it's Pepsi and Coke Take a Step (13/27)

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Back. This is in addition to a lot of companies like McDonald's, PayPal, I believe I saw a headline that said PayPal was up over 1% today because it announced that it's cutting ties or business ties with Russia. You have this political push and rightly so. For lack of a better sense, wars can unite people. Look how the popularity of the Ukraine president over there in the speeches he's giving, he's capturing folks. The US government, a lot of surrounding nations are backing them, not with necessarily troops but with money and or ammo and or supplies. It's uniting that sense and there's a big tailwind there to take a stand and there's pressure there for lack of a better word for corporations. McDonald's, well, let me stay on point here. Pepsi and Coke from the Wall Street Journal today, it says, PepsiCo said it was halting sales of its big soda brands there, Russia, such as Pepsi, Cola and 7Up but would continue to sell potato chips, dairy essentials such as milk, cheese and baby (14/27)

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formula. The snack and drinks giant is exploring options for its business in Russia including writing off the value of the unit people familiar with the matter said. If we were doing an educational class or a classroom setting, the keyword today would be essential. Notice what they're saying here. Hey, they're in a tight line because if you're Pepsi, if you're McDonald's, if you're Coca-Cola, Coca-Cola doesn't have that big of an exposure over there. Don't get me wrong, Russia is not making or breaking any of these companies that we're talking about right now but from a PepsiCo and from a McDonald's perspective, McDonald's has 850 stores, restaurants in the country and 62,000 people it employs at those restaurants, at those McDonald's. The bigger picture here going to Pepsi with essentials and McDonald's as well because I think what McDonald's is doing is great and PepsiCo too here, they will continue to do essentials such as milk, cheese and baby formula. Think of the responsibility (15/27)

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and the tight spot you're in here. You're a CEO of a huge company, you have political pressure and just genuineness of humans saying, hey, these people, Russia is doing something bad, cut them off. Yet if you do that, if you actually do that, forget the earnings or whatever revenue it could bring into your company, forget for a minute the fiduciary responsibility you have for your shareholders to do what's best to stay profitable, to build and run the best business and reward shareholders. Forget that. It would be nearly impossible and they're not overlooking this to think about, hey, what about the impact on the local economy? Maybe these employees at McDonald's and PepsiCo are supporting Putin and thinking that the war is great. Maybe they're against it. Maybe they're just trying to stay alive over there. So to see the PepsiCo and McDonald's continue, PepsiCo continuing to do the essentials, which like I said, I'm having fun with that word, Unilever PLC also said it was suspending (16/27)

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imports. This is from the same Wall Street Journal article. It was suspending imports and exports its products into and out of Russia. Unilever, which doesn't break out sales in the region, said it would continue to supply the essential food and hygiene products it makes in Russia. So PepsiCo also has a huge dairy operation. They paid $5 billion for it and it's not really accredited to earnings, but again, it still employs a lot of people. To McDonald's' point, McDonald's and their 62,000 employees, they announced they're closing all 850 stores, restaurants, yet they're going to continue paying all of their 62,000 employees. I think that that, so A, I want your point on that. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Should McDonald's and other companies just cut? Man, I'm giving you guys a lot of homework. I'm asking a lot for you. It's hard to get any feedback whatsoever, but now I'm asking several questions. So Daniel at CurzioResearch.com, answer them. Should they just cut off Russia (17/27)

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entirely and say, to hell with everybody over there, we're going to just move on and write this off, take our losses on our books and build businesses everywhere? Or do you applaud that? And do you applaud them saying, hey, yeah, it's going to cost you. You're not going to have any revenue coming in. You're going to have costs going out because you're going to continue to pay these salaries. But is that the right thing? This is where investing, this is where capitalism, this is where compassion can come forward through the economy because if you're not successful in other areas, you don't even have the option to continue paying people without revenue coming in from that sector. These companies can all absorb it. They can increase prices. They can cut costs different ways. They can invest in different technologies. These guys are multi-conglomerants, multi, multi-billion dollar companies that can handle this. Are they doing the right thing here? Personally, I'll give you my personal (18/27)

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thing in a minute here, but I like that. I wonder about how that's impacting the shareholders or the current shareholders. McDonald's is an interesting stock because it caught my eye for some reason. I believe I saw some insider buying on it and I don't want to just put too much weight into that because I don't remember who exactly it was, but it caught my eye and I started looking at it and the prices pulled back along with the market in general. But just a couple of quick numbers. McDonald's is one of the most recognizable, most amazing brands in the world. They have huge margins over 50% on gross margins, I believe. They're trading at a 22, 23 forward price to earnings, PE ratio, which is below their five-year average, which is closer to 25. There's no worries with McDonald's as an investor. You don't worry about them being bankrupt or paying their debts or losing massive market share or anything. As the share pulls back, it gets more attractive. I was talking to Frank and pitching (19/27)

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that idea as maybe a cursory research advisory holding or things like that. Just as political winds can push shareholders away, could this possibly be something that encourages shareholders to buy companies like this? Will the same kind of senators and politicians who take shots at corporations, will they applaud them for saying this? Hey, you know what? Maybe BlackRock or Vanguard or these huge asset managers will be more prone. We've already seen the likes of BlackRock getting the role of activists with energy companies and things of that nature. Are they going to go activists on this way and say, hey, we applaud McDonald's continuing to pay this. We know it's going to hurt a little bit on the books, but overall, this is the right thing to do and this is going to create shareholder value in the long term and long lasting shareholders. Therefore, they're increasing their buying on that. I don't know. Just something to throw out there, political headwinds, momentum, it can come from (20/27)

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all different shapes and sizes. If you see these companies announce they're cutting ties or changing their ways with Russia and that's causing their stock to go up, well, that's obviously a buying opportunity and causing momentum. That's something to pay attention to. From a shareholder perspective, if you own McDonald's or PepsiCo or any other company that is pulling ties and or cutting ties with Russia, are you okay with that? Does that make you want to sell shares? Does that make you feel good about them doing the right thing in your opinion or whatever you agree with? Does that make you want to sell shares because you think, hey, these guys are just going to keep paying them. Revenue's not coming in. This is just kind of a political stunt. I want to go look elsewhere. I'm not saying anything of that is right or wrong. I'm asking for your opinion on that. This is very interesting to me and how this ripple affects through the investor from all the way at the top to the individual all (21/27)

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the way at the bottom. I don't mean bottom is bad. I just mean from the scale there. Having said all that, and by the way, I think McDonald's is one of those great companies. If you bought it now, I wouldn't buy a full position just because of the current market environment. I would want to hold that through a business cycle. Obviously, as gas prices and everything are going high, people are going to have to cut back eventually. Not everybody can sustain and live whatever they were living just like the same a month or two ago when gas is $4 or $5 a gallon. At some point, it's going to have an effect on that. I would want to hold McDonald's if I was buying it now. I would want to be buying it over time or at least scaling into it over a business cycle of thinking, hey, these guys are great. They're probably going to gain market share if we do have a recession and or slow down in the economy. They're not going anywhere. Maybe it's the cleanest dirty shirt. If it does go down, hopefully (22/27)

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it goes down less than the market and or supports that dividend and things like that. Just another boring stock. Remember, don't focus on exciting or boring anymore. The environment is changing rapidly with higher inflation is the new normal. Focus on great businesses and operating businesses. Lastly, I just want to talk about Wall Street, corporations and individuals. What if things get better quickly? What if this next round of talks, which hopefully go on and hasn't changed since I started this podcast. What if the next round of peace talks are successful? What if you have cease fires? What if you have Russia start to pull back? What if you have, again, I'm not agreeing or disagreeing, but what if Ukraine says, hey, we're not pursuing NATO membership anymore. We're neutral. We want peace and Russia agrees to that. You're going to see a massive rally. What if all that happens and then the sanctions start to unwind? Who knows how long these are going to be in place. There's a tick for (23/27)

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tat. We're going to do sanctions. Russia's talking about banning exports of some or all materials. There's a lot of uncertainty there. However, if you actually see improvement, you're going to hear hints or headlines about sanctions getting easier. Then is it okay the JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are looking at buying bonds? Is it okay for iShares and VanEck to create more ETFs and more shares to allow individual investors if they choose to buy the ERUS or the RSX? Then you have the corporations like McDonald's. Hey, we paid you through this hard time. They're going to keep great employees. They're going to continue to grow their businesses there. Think about how all that changes right away. The big takeaway here is that the economy is the most important thing. That's why I'm so passionate about trying to get people to pay attention to the economy. It's not that difficult to understand. It's not over your head. It's a lot like the Mike Rowe guy off Dirty Jobs and what he's doing. It's (24/27)

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great to point to all kinds of jobs throughout the economy, what makes the world go round. Not everything is an Amazon. Everything has an effect on all of us. Everything needs to be working. You want to have a stronger economy because that leads to a stronger everything. It gives you options. When you have countries acting badly, you can do the right thing from a humanitarian standpoint. You can do the right thing from a corporate standpoint, paying individuals to help them out and or making changes to continue to grow your businesses elsewhere. It's why I want everybody to pay attention, especially to politics and policies because these drastically affect everybody's, not only lives and paychecks, but the economy and the way of life and the standard of life. Gas prices sky high. Yeah, they were going to be high no matter what, a little bit because of Putin, but there's also decisions we could have been making over the last couple of years or just not changed at all from the last (25/27)

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couple of years that would substantially have helped keep prices lower than what they are now. That's not political. That's just a fact. That's what everybody needs to pay attention and understand that because then once you know the policies and this roadmap, then you have the option to try to figure out and put your money where you want to hopefully benefit you and your family and grow from the inside out. Please give me your feedback. Daniel at CurzioResearch.com. I want to know if you guys like the idea of McDonald's, what they're doing. Give me your take on the Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan's of the world and just the option of investing in Russia, Russia, Russia. Tomorrow, just quick podcast note, tomorrow Frank has an excellent guest and for the life of me, I can't remember if I was supposed to tease it or go ahead and announce it. I'm going to go with teasing. It's a timely interview. This gentleman has been on a couple of times. He's one of the fan favorites and he's got some (26/27)

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excellent ... It's a great interview and he's got some excellent numbers and stats and exciting figures about uranium. Be sure to tune in for that. Until next week, I hope you guys all have a wonderful, safe rest of the week and weekend. Have some adult beverages and enjoy one another. Take care. Cheers. Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility. (27/27)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Before you buy a stock in a bear market, look for this….
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main How's it going out there? It's Wednesday, June 15th, and you were listening to the Wall Street unplugged podcast once again, I Hello, Daniel Creech senior analyst here at Curzio research and filling in behind the mic for the one and only Frank Curzio Who continues to be traveling making deals meeting of the minds pitching ideas all that good stuff But he should be back Tomorrow behind the captain's chair behind the mic here until then I am in charge I can't believe Frank continues to leave this entire company in my hands. Just kidding. Don't panic everybody out there Especially you Curzio one members, but we're gonna have some fun here I'm going to go over a little bit of what I talked about yesterday Be sure and check out yesterday's podcast where I talked about the Fed and oil prices and (1/28)

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things of that nature had some fun today is Wednesday and like I mentioned Unfortunately the Fed meeting we're all in Tom Petty mode here waiting is the hardest part The Fed will come out with its announcement around two o'clock this afternoon Markets are opening up higher this morning leading up to that if I had a crystal ball or had to play like I did I would simply say the market will remain high Sell off into the news and then depending on the rate hike Hopefully it's 75 basis points to 1% then we might see a little market rally depending on of course the Q&A that our wonderful Fed chair Jerome Powell will enlighten us with the federal interest rate Excuse me. The Federal Reserve rate is between 75 basis points and 1% right now give or take and Jeffrey gun lack who is reserved as kind of the bond king Out of California runs a huge bond fund very Just always enjoy listening to this guy. He he does different presentations and he's a he's a regular on CNBC and different financial (2/28)

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channels he tweeted last night That the Federal Reserve should raise the Fed funds rate to 3% tomorrow in my opinion. That was his tweet At 1047. I'm assuming that's California time. So three hours behind us here If they raised to 3% that would be a heck of a little pop Fed fund rates by said that that would put the high end at 1.75% and that would just The whole notion here is and you've even seen past Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke who was behind the helm of the Federal Reserve for a while now Janet Yellen to get to her in just a second evidently It's the rats are about to jump off the ship going into the midterms Because she is being cut out of the inner circle of the Biden administration Well, we'll get to that in the blame game here in just a second, but gun lack Is talking about when I mean when he speaks market listens and him to Federal Reserve Former chairs Ben Bernanke and everybody right now is talking about the credibility. We need credibility from our leaders We need (3/28)

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credibility from the smartest guys in the room and they really don't have any because they are so far behind the curve A cuppy who's a regular on the Wall Street unplugged podcast Harris Kupperman is fantastic hedge fund guy Newsletter writer just he had a great thread on how far the Fed was behind and it doesn't really matter On a 50 basis or 75 basis point hike because oil continues to drive and do the job of the Fed meaning the higher Price of oil and the sustained high price of oil is going to dramatically Affect the consumer and the economy all over now That's one reason why you should be have exposure to the oil and gas industry because those stocks have been performing more on that in just a moment, but it's also because You'll see it in retail sales. You'll see it in different Economic readings because as people have to use their discretionary income a Lot more of it than in the past to just get around that's going to take away from something whether it's food whether it's (4/28)

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clothing Whether it's travel services, it's just going to have an impact We just have to wait kind of you know, use our best judgment to see how that's going to filter through the economy As I said yesterday Hopefully they come out with a 75 basis point maybe 1% higher but the language that they need to use is That they finally got it because we have two choices. We're either going to drag this out, which is probably the option we're going to take or they're going to hike rates quickly and Throw off this Credibility issue because Fed pal Fed chair pal is trying to steer the economy and say everything to To give everybody kind of a heads up and that's you know, I'm not saying that's good or bad That's the route he's taking but if you really want credibility and you want to be independent and you want to show that you're serious you got to pay you got to take action and that in this case is Rising rates and that's going to cause a major slowdown. It's already calls dramatic volatility. (5/28)

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Like we've seen Friday Last Friday the 10th up until this week already Turning to so we got the Fed we have to wait on that and Franklin can talk about that on tomorrow's podcast or we can at least update you with what's going on and kind of go from there My point to all this is that you got to pay attention to these type of politics and policies because these dramatically affect everything in your life Interest rates are key to the economy and they've been manipulated for years It's a paradigm shift where they're starting to kind of find a market level or a market bottom meaning the market is dictating that interest Rate it's going to cause everything else to rewrite. So just to reiterate my Advice here in general is that you need to use these bear market rallies To evaluate everything you have across the stocks bonds whatever Across the board and either trim or decide to cut your losses or get out because of these paradigm shifts that's going on in the markets Relating to energy (6/28)

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moving on as I've talked about You got a brace for higher oil prices higher energy prices in general for the sustained Future for for a good while because the blame game continues to go on And what a difference just a week or a couple of days makes because I pointed out how different people from our current administration to everybody else is blaming Whether it be the Russian invasion of Ukraine Saudi Arabia for not pumping as much as it quote unquote should depending on who you are this that and the other The takeaway here is have exposure to energy prices Of course if the Federal Reserve comes out and does what Jeffrey Gonlach says raises to three or hell Let's let's raise it to 5% today if we can do whatever we want and show how tough we are Well, let's go ahead and bump it up cause a market crash cause the pain to get over more quickly rather than dragging it out Don't bet on that bet on dragging it out. That's what they do best This is from yesterday Bloomberg reports that oil (7/28)

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companies that record a profit margin better than 10% would face a new federal surtax under a plan developed by a key senator this key senator is Senator Ron Wyden an Oregon Democrat who chairs the tax writing finance committee Would mean the oil companies face federal taxes of as much as 42 percent That's 21 percent US corporate tax rate plus this other 21 percent surtax Couple people, you know, these sources are always wonderful. Oh a couple people briefed on the matter that aren't allowed to talk about it yet Why didn't set he release his plan publicly he'd likely need all 50 dead that that that let's get to the good stuff Here's a quote the proposal I'm developing would help Reverse perverse Incentives to price gouge. Let me let me read that again for all you listening now pay attention The proposal I'm developing would help reverse perverse incentives to price gouge by doubling the corporate tax rate on companies excess profits eliminating egregious buybacks and reducing (8/28)

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accounting tricks Wyden said about the proposal he plans to introduce in the coming weeks quote by contrast companies that provide relief to consumers By either reducing prices or investing in new supply would not be affected Okay. Well, this is hilarious you can't say reducing accounting tricks on one hand and then have the other hand say that if you reduce prices or Invest in new supply it would not be Affected because you can do that on the balance sheet with accounting tricks now the reason that you should pay attention to this is number one, it should be scary because What you have here is what is the answer to lower gas prices? Well supply and demand what's wrong right now You have a lot of demand Outpacing supply for lack of a better term meaning rising prices. You want to reverse that you don't tax it You don't limit it. You don't do anything. You just produce more you flip the equation So you increase supply therefore reaches demand and if the Federal Reserve or any other (9/28)

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reason as higher prices continue to cause a Slowdown in an economic recession. You'll then have higher supply and lowering demand meaning prices are going to fall That is the answer and just because I'm a 36 year old dumb kid without all the great Doctrines and PhDs and what-have-you. I simply have a bachelor's degree somehow I went to school for well over four years. I got a bachelor's and didn't get my associates That's how serious I took school at the beginning But that doesn't mean that you're not smart enough I don't care if you have an eighth grade education or what you could be a doctor and still be dumber in hell when it Comes to economics. This is not rocket science. This is very simple supply and demand and The fact that key senators, I mean hell this guy is on what did I say is on the text Text writing policy or something. I mean this guy's got to be one of the best They have no clue they know but they're choosing not to we're not ruling out. Let's see here At oh then this (10/28)

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is hilarious because they call out one of my favorite stocks which is up significantly in dollar stock Club And it says last week at a port of Los Angeles on Friday President Joe Biden specifically called out Exxon For ranking raking in bumper earnings quote from the president evidently We're going to make sure everyone knows Exxon's profits Exxon made more money than God last year. I Didn't see God's tax return and I don't know if he's a 1099 or a w-2 employee, but Well, we'll have to I'll have to ask him when when I pray this evening You Can't make this stuff up this is better than a Hollywood movie getting back to the Senators quote here the proposal I'm developing would reverse perverse incentives a price couch. Let me unpack this doubling the corporate corporate tax rate on companies excess profits That's a stickler there because that's going to go through crazy amounts of wording and bills bill language To have the common guy just throw up his hands and disgust and not even have (11/28)

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to worry about that Eliminating egregious buybacks and reducing accounting tricks We'll forget the accounting tricks because a lot of those are goofy anyway, and he's got a point there You could reduce a lot of things very easily across corporate America, but that won't happen anytime soon either egregious buybacks that shows you Who they think the enemy is and that is investors that is capitalism at its core And that is the big takeaway and the worry that you need to see through all the energy whether it be energy or shipping Or food prices or logistics or gas prices. It doesn't matter internet hell now 5g is a requirement or or it should be a Free, you know internet should be free everything and what they do politicians in general is pit one another against each other why not have investors or pay attention to Rewarding everybody I mean instead of instead of pointing them out as the bad guy You should you should point to the wealth creation It should be good that you point out Exxon (12/28)

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Mobil's profits You should start that conversation and then go from there But this is just slinging mud because they have to and one quick point here on On energy and why the incentives actually two more two more good ones here and then we'll move on this is from the opinion section of the Wall Street Journal on Thursday, June 9th, and It says why energy companies won't produce full disclosure this guy. Mr Stotlin Berg is a former vice president chief financial officer for vine energy. So he's biased He's just to give all you haters out there against oil and gas some context but He starts out and says President Biden has urged oil and natural gas companies to ramp up production and you think given the current high Prices they would be interested in doing so but not so fast Oil and gas is a five-year highs But he quotes listen to this Devon Energy recently issued guidance for 2022 that refers to capital spending in the range of 1.9 to 2.2 billion and production between 570 million to (13/28)

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600 million barrels of oil equivalents per day That's across the board whatever you produce you equate it or you you turn it into oil from a measuring standpoint Now that's a modest increase in capital spending but it's a modest decrease in production Devon also anticipates increased cash returns to shareholders for 2022 like many in the industry Devon obviously believes it's better to return capital to its shareholders than reinvest in the business now. Why would that be if Prices in an all-time high why wouldn't they go drill more? Is it because they hate the consumer? They're very customers who they serve is it because they love their shareholders also fiduciary responsibility to treat them Well, or is it because they're the bad guy and they're the blame team for everything Well, we're on to something here skip down another paragraph and it points out that says last September 20 house Democrats introduced the fossil-free Finance Act which would require a Federal Reserve Bank to take (14/28)

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steps To stop banks from investing in fossil fuel production the bill's goal quote no financing or new or expanded fossil fuel projects after 2022 Well, that's this year people six months left now Why is that important? Well, because eventually you need people to actually with a brain almost didn't make this a Family-friendly show there Frank can use the f-bomb not his assistant Daniel Because you need some people with a brain to fight back and look at West Virginia leading the charge This is hilarious West Virginia sent evidently sent a letter to a handful of banks including Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs Excuse me The one of the our favorite banks here at Curzio research because they are one of the most tongue-in-cheek Fun smiling crooked people that always seem to make money They call out West Virginia calls out these banks and even BlackRock CEO biggest asset manager Larry Fink Pointing to the fact that he has been outspoken and pressuring corporate leaders to commit to investment (15/28)

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goals that will undermine Reliable energy sources like coal natural gas and oil under the guise of helping the planet now. These are Officials out of West Virginia and this is good because you need the argument to take center stage and there's nothing like that To bring the argument to center stage then record high gas prices huge high oil prices and energy prices and the fact that there's no end in sight because the Governing policies think it's better for you to you and I to suffer for the sake of the health of the planet Than it is to pay lower prices and be more independent more free and be able to have more choices in our economy Enough of that tangent. We're running out of time. I got to keep these under 30 minutes or your next podcast is free I want to say one quick thing on operating companies and Bear markets and how to view them. I'm gonna just think out loud here and kind of talk through this The front page of the Wall Street Journal today points out that Coinbase is cutting (16/28)

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its staff by 18% or about 1100 people as they brace for a recession in the general economy and the overall maybe another crypto winter That was the two-year period roughly where crypto tanked when it first hit 20,000 a coin and then fell all the way back below 4,000 recently it's hit high of almost 70,000 has dropped over 65% it's give or take 20,000 now Hopefully it doesn't go back all the way to the 80% retracement like it has in the past that would take it from its previous High all the way down to around 12,000 if my math is correct Which you can all double check me and give me fun fair or hate messages smile Daniel at Curzio research calm that's Daniel at Curzio research calm Because we are going into this new environment of higher inflation higher interest rates and growth isn't going to be rewarded Like it has been in the last ten years now you really want to focus and I I don't mean to bore you to death But I can't stress this enough on how to think through this because I've (17/28)

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been talking with a lot of contacts friends family investors and You want to really vote for the first time in a long time management and operating Fundamentals matter it's not just about growing anymore, and I talked a lot about this yesterday So I don't want to continue to repeat myself, but I'm just gonna give you a handful I'm not saying by these blindly I'm seeing I'm talking about this from a thinking through process on the investor side So you take like Target and Walmart? Huge distributors wonderful well-run companies been in business a long time have a great track record Targets down give or take 40% year-to-date or close to that Walmart star not that much But hasn't seen the run-up like Target has in the past few quarters. They've talked about shifting consumer behavior Target recently came out and lowered first you know lowered a little bit of revenue, but then backed it up in the second half and causing the stocks to to really sell off hard And I get that because it's all (18/28)

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knee-jerk reaction and when you have knee-jerk reactions because of the leverage because of the money sloshing around Yes, the Federal Reserve has changed course recently, but there's still it takes a long time to flow through the pipeline It takes a long time for the spill to make its way downriver, and that's what we're gonna experience so you have to be prepared for this this new normal these bear markets the Road less traveled is lower across market indices as we rerate everything and get used to this high inflation higher interest rate environment Target and Walmart in previous quarters have talked about how they're going to pass on some of the prices with transportation energy inflation etc to the consumers But they're also going to eat some of those prices because they're in it for the long term these guys are like insurance companies They're looking way down the road They want to have cuss Consumers and know that they're gonna have consumers for years and years to come and why (19/28)

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is that a good thing as an investor? Well because holding these companies gives you not only upside capital appreciation ie higher stock prices But it's also going to let you compound your money in a very good way with a dividend possible share buybacks There's opportunity for special buyback or special dividends. Excuse me because of the amount of cash flow and coming in So you want to focus you want to look at these? And you know the company presentations and things like that FedEx just hiked its dividend in Target for its point real quick target up to its dividend recently like 20% FedEx came out and You know acted like they didn't want to show target anything They increased their dividend 53% So new newer CEO there. I'm not even gonna try to butcher his name announced that Board of Directors declared a quarterly debt cash dividend of a dollar 15 per share that represents 40 cents per share or a 53% increase from its previous dividend. They also this is another key thing to look for (20/28)

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so you're looking at management You're looking at operating companies Another great thing is that look for newer CEOs now whenever you get a new CEO the first couple of quarters They might use that as a you know, throw everything out Moment and just and why wouldn't you if you're taking over the realm you want to lower expectations? And then start, you know, whether that be a basketball team a football team whatever Cut right to the bone in the beginning and then lower expectations and things are going up So look for newer management teams look for operating teams FedEx the co-found or the excuse me. One of the founders just changed to Chairman of the board, I believe so. There's a lot of new places going on So that might be rocky but that kind of move to say hey, we're serious about this. We're going to realign Management compensation with shareholder returns and capex spending X such and we're increasing this dividend that shows you that they have good nature in the Game you want to (21/28)

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continue look for that? Another stock here camping world holdings. I Talked about this a couple weeks ago when I filled in for Frank Curzio on the dollar stock club dollar stock club quickly is our cheapest newsletter I Marketing should hang me. I don't even know what it costs. It's very cheap. It's a couple bucks a month I think we give out a lot ideas. It's just an idea generation off of either Frank and ice conversations or his guest and If you subscribe to any of our products you get the frankly speaking which only goes out to paying subscribers I thought in for Frank a couple of weeks ago and really talked about Marcus Lamones the CEO of CWH and He has huge ownership in the in the company and he just bought just this week. I believe it was dated the 10th so maybe last week and they filed this week. He just bought another million dollars in stock now He's a rich guy. So take that with a grain of salt, but when stocks are tanking Markets are pulling back. You want to see those kind (22/28)

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of CEOs those management teams step up You want to see him communicate you want to see him take action and that's what they're doing Another great operating company that I've talked about in the past is AutoZone a CEO Pull up a transcript from their conference called their management teams have a great pulse on the market They serve the customer Well, they have a great business model and they continue to buy back shares on a regular basis as part of their business plan To drive up earnings and the stock price and it's working. I know it's pulled back from previous highs but it's a $2,000 stock give or take for a reason and It's in its amazing operating company one other company that I will and then also look for This just caught my eye because I'm having some fun with this. I'll revisit this but one company This reminded me of this just on the fly. I wasn't going to talk about this, but I'll cram it in here quickly I saw that Cheniere Energy LNG has entered into an agreement to buy (23/28)

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$350,000,000 worth of stock back from Carl Icahn Carl Icahn is one of my favorite hedge fund managers There's YouTube videos of him having hilarious stand-up stories about previous deals Search that on the internet for a good laugh LNG Cheniere Energy has a Billion dollar I'm going off memory here a billion dollars in their share buyback Under authorization right now. So they're using 350 million from Carl Icahn. The other thing that has me perplexed I've been following this stock for a little bit of Xerox XRX Now at first glance the ads gonna be a dying business, you know you have you have to balance between hybrid work from home and corporate offices and printers and all that kind of stuff and there's a lot of competition and it's just it's kind of a dying business and Xerox is is Selling off, you know non-profitable divisions and recouping and things but when you read their transcripts, they're basically saying hey We're just a cash flow business. And this is what I think Carl Icahn (24/28)

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sees it I brought this up because he's a huge shareholder Something like twenty thirty percent of the stock and you want to think about just in terms like I mentioned yesterday Harold ham large large owner of Continental Resources made an offer to take that private I don't know if Carl Icahn is thinking the same thing or if other funds are but on the conference calls management saying hey We're gonna do at least four hundred to four hundred seventy five million in free cash flow or operating cash flow They're going to pay fifty percent of free cash flow back to shareholders either either through in Dividends and share repurchases. So effect again You have a grit you have a management company focused on operating for the shareholders and that's what you want to think about I'm not in Xerox has gotten tanked and an icon has recently been buying I'll continue to follow that Maybe that'll make its way in Give me your feedback. Tell me what what he sees that I don't see jumping out at me. (25/28)

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I'd be greatly appreciative Daniel at Curzio research comm but in bear markets you want to focus on those traits and don't panic just think through that you're gonna see a lot of volatility and That's okay because you got to remember lower prices create opportunity and unless the world ends You're always going to have more opportunities So you don't have to be buying stocks today But have cash available be trimming stocks be selling stocks that either your thesis has changed or you were just flat-out wrong It happens and just hold cash to where you're ready when the opportunity strikes Bear markets are where a lot of people make their money because when all prices come down Those that don't panic those that don't give up and have opportunity and have cash available Can buy great stocks or great businesses at wonderful prices and let them compound for time and when I say time I mean a few years at least or more. It's not a hey look at this I'm gonna buy this on Monday and a month from (26/28)

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now It's gonna be up 50% you need to rerate your expectations on that because we have a fundamentally different Market now with rising interest rates and higher inflation Alright, I'll get off my soapbox here. I might have taken a little longer than 30 minutes I'm gonna get yelled at but anyway some of your feedback good or bad Daniel occurs your research calm Even if I don't reply I do read them all I greatly appreciate him some I can't I have to walk a tightrope between Financial advice and all that because we're generally here just to help you communicate with you, and I hope you all have a great day It's been great filling in and we'll get back to our regular programming tomorrow Cheers Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's (27/28)

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your money and your responsibility (28/28)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - These companies are rewarding shareholders in a major way.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and a breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street. Greetings to all you investors, traders, some of you gamblers out there, conversationalists and overall independent thinkers. It is Thursday, December 9th, and you're listening to the Wall Street Unplugged podcast, which is normally hosted by the one and only Frank Curzio, where he breaks down the headlines and, I can't hold the pause that long, tells you what really moved in these markets. Today's a little different. You are stuck with me and only me because, well, as you all are aware of, life happens every once in a while. Frank had a great interview scheduled, but they had to cancel and then reschedule for a later date. Some things come up. Fires need to be put out. Fires need to be started. So anyway, we'll get through it all today. Frank has turned over the reins of this (1/28)

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company a few times now in my amateur rank podcast hands, but he's careful to do it. Don't get upset. He only does it for 30 minutes or less at a time. I'll tell you how I'm going to run the show today. This is kind of like my courtroom or captain of this ship. There were two interviews yesterday on CNBC that caught my eye, one regarding Pfizer and the positive news there around the recent coronavirus variant. They also interviewed, I believe it was Joe Kernan, had a great interview with Galaxy Digital CEO, Mike Novogratz, who I'm a big fan of and all our subscribers to our crypto newsletter are well aware of that. And then finally, it's always flattering to get emails from subscribers and listeners and kind of ask us about our process or how we come up with ideas or what are we thinking about macro and how does that funnel down to micro. So I'll walk you through a fun free website and just kind of some bigger macro thinking on what I'm looking forward to, what I'm expecting or what I (2/28)

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want to prepare for when it comes to putting money to work, generating that return for investors. Yesterday we'll kick things off. So yesterday there was really positive news out of Pfizer because they said that if you get the doses or boosters, however you want to say this, it doesn't take one, maybe not two, but the third shot you get is going to really protect you from this latest variant Omikron. And of course, you know, I'm going to butcher things throughout this short podcast and have some fun. So feel free to email me, Daniel at Curzio Research dot com. That's Daniel at Curzio Research dot com with all your positive and negative feedback. Now they had, I believe it was the CEO of Pfizer on there and let me stop real quick. This is good news because as you can see in just the last two weeks since our Thanksgiving holiday, the market has basically gained all back of what it had lost when this variant broke news and really started to shake up markets. I mean, you saw huge swings in (3/28)

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the market indices, the Dow and S&P 500, just crazy times. And people were wondering, hey, this is going to be worse than Delta. We're going back to lockdowns, supply chains be damned. All the issues we're dealing with right now are only going to get much, much worse. Fast forward two weeks later. Not that big of a deal, apparently, which is, again, is great news not only for economies, but just for us as humans in general and living our lives. I, for one, I mean, any deaths are terrible. This is a awful virus, the coronavirus, COVID, whatever you want to call it, the variants. It's terrible. So the sooner we get better news and get past this, the best. And I'm the biggest cheerleader for that. The Pfizer CEO was saying, hey, you know, I loved his analogy he used. He said the vaccines are about building and booster shots are about building a wall. So you want to think about building a wall against the virus for protection. Now, because of our current political environment, I can't (4/28)

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believe he gets away with this. I at least he didn't say we're building a border around this virus, because then, you know, you're kicked off TV. He'd probably get a golden parachute package and be sent packing. But that's OK. That's neither here nor there. But he said, hey, the first booster shot or vaccine builds a wall, but the wall isn't that high. And then when you get the second shot, it just increases that wall strength and builds the wall a little bit higher. And then the third shot again does the same thing, builds it a little higher. That's all well and good, except for, hey, I'm 6'6". I'm a little bit taller than average. I don't know if three shots will build a wall big enough for me. I feel like that good joke. I need a life, a life-sized tattoo of someone my height for this type of protection. But we'll see how all this plays out. Getting back to markets, markets rallied a little bit yesterday. The Dow bounced around. But this is good news because it thinks, hey, it takes (5/28)

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lockdowns out of the picture. It gets people used to the unfortunate reality, which is you're going to have to learn to live with this, learn to expect this. I'm talking, of course, from an investing standpoint. So when you want to deal with this as being forever, you need to be prepared for headlines about, hey, the new variant coming out. What if it's worse than the last two? Or what if this next booster shot doesn't quite as protect you from this? We're excited right now. Markets are rallying. We're looking past this. Dr. Fauci even yesterday came out and basically echoed the same positive news saying, hey, this new variant looks less severe as far as deadliness. It is very transparent. Or excuse me, it infects people quickly. So that's not good. You're going to get a lot of cases, number of cases going up. But if the severity of those cases, I don't want to say nothing to worry about, but if it's not serious or as serious as once feared, that's positive news. But as investors, what (6/28)

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do you take away from this? Well, if we're going to have to live with this forever, we're talking about future vaccines, future booster shots. How do you not have exposure to the pharmaceutical industries? And I know Frank has talked about it the last week or so about how some of the ETFs or biotech trackers have been down significantly this year. I think a couple were double digits. But Pfizer is not. And they're always on. You know, the CEO was on CNBC. They have a lot of spokesmen or board members. I can't think of the guy's name, but used to be on the FDA or headed. That stock is performing very well. And it's not a Moderna. It's not as volatile as that as far as share price goes. But it gives you exposure to this new normal of, hey, you have to prepare to be ready for this. The other takeaway is you want to know what you own and why you own. And I echoed this yesterday on the podcast with Frank. You know, when markets are selling off, everything basically is going to go down. So I (7/28)

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don't care if it's Apple and it's nothing related to Apple or Microsoft and nothing related to Microsoft. Typically, a lot of times those stocks get thrown out. You know, it's the old expression, the baby gets thrown out with the bathwater. Okay, that's going to happen. That's a reality. When markets sell off, basically everything sells off. But what you want to look at is why. What is the media or what do you think is behind the sell off? How does that affect your personal positions and use lower prices to either add or at least maintain and just understand that, hey, volatility is just part of it. The new normal there is we have to learn to live with this. So have exposure to Pfizer and unfortunately be prepared for, hey, maybe it wasn't as safe. These vaccines didn't work as good or they don't last as long. So we're going to have to live with this volatility for forever and just deal with that. That's not great, but it's better news than where we were two weeks ago when everybody (8/28)

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was scared to death over this thing. Keeping on the CNBC network, they had Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novikratz on. I thought it was a good interview because they asked me about, hey, what about Bitcoin if inflation gets tamed by rising interest rates? They also asked him about just the idea of money flowing into the space. He said a couple of things that really stood out to me. He gave a price prediction and that's always tough. People love to see people go out on a limb. With the current sell off, Bitcoin hit damn near 70,000 or right around there. Then it sold off to 41, 42. It's back around 50, well, give or take, who knows where it is. It was 50 yesterday again when this interview was happening. Novikratz said he doesn't expect it to go under 40,000. Now of course he doesn't have a crystal ball, but I liked what he explained and he said he had just gotten back from the Middle East. He's talking to the biggest institutions, big money managers all over the world. He's a very connected (9/28)

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guy, super smart guy, obviously, super successful guy. He talked about what he referred to as an institutional bid under the crypto market. That really stood out to me. Then I started seeing it on headlines and different things. That's a great soundbite, an institutional bid. What he's saying there is that there's a lot of people and a lot of money that still want to get into this space. They're very smart people. They're going to do it in the best way they can. When prices, we talked about this yesterday as well, when prices come down, so does your risk. If you're worried about Bitcoin going to zero, there's obviously less risk at 40,000 going to zero than it is at 70,000 going to zero. As an investor, if you're already in Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies or you're thinking about doing that, you need to, first of all, make peace with the fact that you have to buy in or your certain beliefs are that it's not going away if you're thinking about going along. You're probably not worried about (10/28)

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it going back to zero. Even though it's difficult emotionally to buy into when prices are going down, that's what you have to train your idea and your thinking to do. He's just telling you on CNBC that the biggest, smartest, and largest asset or money managers in the world are kind of using this volatility to look to add or gain exposure to this. That is a huge takeaway and you need to write that down and you need to continue to remind yourself of that during volatile times. Doesn't mean you can buy blindly. Doesn't mean you can put all your eggs in one basket. Let's not get out of hand here. What he said really stood out to me. There's an institutional bid under the market. Maybe he believes it's right around that 40 mark. Maybe it's a little higher. Maybe it's a little lower. The point is that this guy is telling you, you haven't missed it. So don't be the guy sitting on the fence saying, oh yeah, well, it's just waiting for me to buy it and then it's going to go down. That's a good (11/28)

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bar joke, but don't live there and don't invest that way. Another thing he said turning to the regulatory front was, and it just so happened yesterday, there was a big house hearing. I don't even know what the group was, but some house committee had a bunch of crypto related companies, CEOs in front of them. Maxine Waters came right out and basically said, hey, if Meta, formerly known as Facebook, allows individuals to use this wallet and use this cryptocurrency, it's basically going to undermine, I believe that's exactly what she said. She's worried about it undermining the US dollar because you have billions of people who use the platform. You could have a lot of volume flow into that space. So I don't think it was a coincidence that he talked about regulatory clarity as this house hearing was about to take hold. When it comes to regulation, most of you listeners are going to know I'm a less is more type guy there. All you need is a few simple rules and enforce those rules so that (12/28)

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people aren't scammed and or stolen from. There's bad actors and everything. So blaming crypto, blaming bad actors behavior on cryptocurrencies or using that is in my mind just a silly argument. But it's one that attracts emotion and headlines. But we do need just clarification. Just set a few simple rules. And Frank has talked about this over months and months about what are they going to deem, which cryptocurrencies are they going to deem as securities and or coins or utility coins. And that will have a major effect on different exchanges. It wouldn't shock me. And like Frank has talked about, to see a lot of the cryptocurrencies that are trading on certain platforms maybe have to be delisted off those platforms if tighter and more regulatory regulation crackdowns happen. We'll see how all that plays out. But I wanted you to take away from the institutional bid. One other important thing he said to me, and there was a good question on, hey, if Bitcoin is viewed as this inflation (13/28)

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hedge or more of a sound money hedge, kind of like gold does because you have this endless and massive money printing not only going on by our federal government and Federal Reserve, but also world. This is happening worldwide against these central banks. So if you're devaluing your paper currency, your fiat currency, that is a bull case for Bitcoin because there's a limited amount of Bitcoin ever. And that's a good question. If interest rates rise and you can kind of stop debasing the currency, isn't that a negative for Bitcoin? And maybe it is, maybe it isn't. I think there's still a lot of value there because of the limitness and the usage that can come from it, the trust that can come from it, the innovation that can come from it. And if there's that much money sitting on the sidelines waiting to get in, I still think that over time going forward, prices are going to be much higher than where they currently are. In addition to that, he said, Ethereum, Bitcoin is looked at as the (14/28)

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hedge and Ethereum is looked at more of a technology. So it'll be interesting to watch, and it's not rocket science to probably guess that you can have exposure to both. So if you're in crypto, you should be, in my opinion, have exposure to the biggest and best names because that's where a lot of the capital and innovation is coming or flowing into an innovation coming from. And I expect them, I'm not saying they're going to dominate forever, but Bitcoin and Ethereum are clearly leaders in their space. So if investors are looking at Ethereum from a technology perspective, that just gives you many options to win. And that's a good thing. That's a very strong bull case for years to come. And it'll be exciting as just a interested participant and investor to kind of watch that unfold. Don't worry too much about rising interest rates crashing Bitcoin, in my opinion, but just expect further volatility. And I know that is a broken record because you don't need me to tell you that Bitcoin and (15/28)

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cryptocurrencies are crazy volatile. I mean, hell, the market went down a few percent, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies went down more than 20% right around the Thanksgiving holiday here in the US. But just a few things to think about. And if you can go Google those, check out those interviews and do a lot of your homework on what cryptos do you like, why, and use those pullbacks as buying opportunity. Switching to one more thing here, let you guys go a little early from this class session. It's always very flattering to get emails, even if it's telling me how terrible I am. It's still funny and great that you guys take the time to sit down, email, send us a note, whether you love us or hate us, don't ignore us. That's what we like to joke about. But I've gotten a handful of, hey, how do you come up with certain ideas or what tools do you use, or how do I become a better analyst or how can I do this on my own? And I hate to tell you, there's no secret sauce here. Two ingredients for (16/28)

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success are time and effort, and you got to be willing to put in the time and you obviously have to be willing to put in the effort. And the good news is it's very easy to do that right now, not so much time, but the effort and the ability to grab information, because you can basically get transcripts for free from conference calls, go to the company's websites, look through their presentations, look through their earnings release, their news releases, look through their SEC filings, their quarterly reports, their annual reports, all that. They legally have to publish that and it's all free. You can go to, I believe it's sec.gov, sec.gov or Seeking Alpha. I don't know if they still allow you to access all that on their free membership, but there are other sites that you can, the point is you can get that information out there. And so you want to take advantage of that. Granted, now a lot of you don't have time, that's why you subscribe to our newsletters, which you should, even if you (17/28)

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do have the time. You got to keep us going here at Curzio Research. Frank will like that plug. But I wanted to point out one great free website and it's Finviz. And what I like about Finviz is across the top, you can click on a screener tab. And as you use the dropdown menus to go through industries, you can go from anywhere, energy, technology. It'll limit, it'll bring up these lists for you. And then the nice thing is you can just hit the chart feature and it charts every stock there and it's pages and pages. So if you do oil and gas, you're going to have pages and pages. Why do I say that? Well, because it's easy to see them right next to each other. You can see, hey, this chart went up and it's pulled back 20% or 50%. Why? Because it's easy to take a note and look in. You can get a lot of the competitors in the industries. You can look at a lot of who they're, what they have exposure to. And it's all in just one neat screen. It's got a feature where you can look at groups and it'll (18/28)

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show you daily, weekly, monthly, year to date, year over year, what sectors are doing best. You can simply click on those sectors and again, it'll chart all these different stocks for you. Great point to start your research. Charlie Munger had a great quote talking about his partner and brilliant investor. Charlie is as well, Warren Buffett. And I'm paraphrasing here of course, but basically somebody was asking him, hey, how's Warren so great? Or what makes you guys such a great team and this and that and the other. And Charlie said, one of Warren's best qualities is he sits on his ass and reads a lot. And I'm sure he implied it, but I would also add to that, think. You just want to think through certain situations and how that's going to affect everybody. Turning to volatility in current markets. How do I think through things right now going into the next year? Obviously we're going to have a lot more volatility, so you want to be prepared for that. So Frank has talked about a lot of (19/28)

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this in the past where you can scale into positions over time. Certain positions for me, I want to get certain amount of dollars in those positions. So I'm going to buy over time until I get X amount in one stock, X amount in the other, et cetera, et cetera. That's a personal preference. You can do that as well. But I want to think about, okay, if we do get a major pullback, say 10, 20%, and that hits most stocks, I want to have a shopping list of what to buy when those prices come back. Now two things for that. You have A, you have to put in the time and make a shopping list or listen to us. And B, you have to have cash ready on the sidelines. So you don't want to be in the position of selling other positions to buy something else if you're experiencing a big pullback. So you want to think about that process over time. If we are going to have a lot more volatility, like both Frank and I expect, you want to focus on quality. And it's okay to be boring. You want to hide out. You don't (20/28)

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always have to be doing something in the markets. That's what's so great about investing. You don't ever have to do anything. Obviously, you can't sit on the fence all day, but you can research and choose not to invest, take on that risk, wait for the risk reward to be in your favor before you swing at that fat pitch. So when I think about quality, I want to look at strong balance sheets. So you can do simple screens, again, back to Finviz on insider buying. If insiders, CEOs, CFOs, managers, board of directors are buying their stock, that's a starting point to look into it further. That's how I found for Curzio Venture Opportunities. That's how we came across Red Rock Resorts. Casino Play, we did that as a reopen. It's up over 150, 160%. I don't have it right off the top of my head. But the first time I came across that stock was simply because insiders were buying. So I wrote it down. We started looking at it. Frank and I BS'd about it. Boom, it gets into the portfolio and that (21/28)

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really worked out for us. Another quality in addition to insider buying is, especially during these times right now, if interest rates are going up, you think of return on your money, higher yields. I just did a quick thing through one of our other products we use, Briefing, about special dividends. I'll just read you a handful of these. I jotted them down, but some of these shocked me here for special dividends. So AmeriCo, U-Haul, U-H-A-L is the symbol, moving, that shouldn't surprise anybody that that was gangbusters in perfect environment for them. Everybody was moving all over, especially you had this exodus out of large cities during the coronavirus. So they paid out a special dividend. American Financial, several insurance companies have done very well over COVID and through COVID. American Financial declared a special dividend. So did W.R. Berkeley, two very well, just amazingly run companies and look to gain exposure add to on pullbacks because those are just well-run (22/28)

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companies. Going to a different sector from insurance and traveling, EOG Resources, symbol is EOG. They're in the oil and gas business, volatile as hell all the time, they're known for volatility. They declared a special dividend. We've talked in the past about Devon Energy, DVN is the symbol. They are doing basically this scaling structure on their dividend. So they have a set fixed dividend and then based on quarterly resorts, they can raise or kind of lower that quarter to quarter, which is really good. I already mentioned Red Rock Resorts, they declared a special dividend. In Steel Industries, this is like counting in Roman numerals. The symbol is I, I, I, N. Metal fabrication, industrial, think infrastructure bill. Again, that's a great shopping list item there because we have a lot of tailwinds coming through with the infrastructure bill and future stimulus. One more sector here, retail. Dillard's, DDS declared a special dividend and all these, these are recent. I'm not talking (23/28)

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they did this last year, I'm talking about just over the last few months. Build-a-Bear Workshop, that shocked the hell out of me. Regular listeners know I don't have children or anything else. So this is totally out of my league, but Build-a-Bear Workshop is obviously killing it and they declared a special dividend. National Beverage Corp, Fizz is the symbol, F-I-Z-Z and retailer Buckle, B-K-E, all have done special dividends in the past few months. You're either crazy as a management team and over leveraging and running your business terribly by doing special dividends, or you're seeing not only strength that you've recently come out of, but you feel good enough about the future to where you're declaring this, you're taking this money off your balance sheet and you're rewarding shareholders. That's a great quality that you want to invest in, in a management team. You want management teams with skin in the game. You want them incentivized to make money as their own company and stock (24/28)

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prices make money and you want them to have the idea of rewarding shareholders. That is amazing. During these times, and I know everybody wants quick returns, me included. If I buy a stock today, I would love for it to go up 300 or 1000%, be a meme stock or a crypto stock over the next month and make thousands and thousands of percent returns. I'm not arguing that. I could argue I'd want that worse than anybody else. That's just not the reality. You don't want to have that as your needed result to fulfill your game plan. You want to focus on these management teams and during these volatile times, expect more craziness around the Fed, the bond tapering, buying less bonds per month, which means other buyers have to come in, which is going to put a pressure on rising interest rates. They may hike. They say they're going to, they should hike the overall interest rate at their level, the federal benchmark, and you have to worry about the constant variants of coronavirus and or threats of (25/28)

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lockdown, travel restrictions and everything else that are going to play on the economy from quarter to quarter. Having said all that though, that's what you know. Build your shopping list of quality, look for the best management teams around and then look to add to those on opportunity pullbacks. That's just a couple of, like I said, the briefing we pay for. I don't think that they have a free service, but I could be wrong on that. But Finviz, Seeking Alpha, Whale Wisdom I've mentioned in the past about looking at the big 13F, the filings that hedge funds and over a hundred million dollar offices have to file. That's one way that you can start your idea. This sounds really cliche, but have confidence. Read through stuff, make notes, build a thesis, and then just try to poke holes in it. That's one thing I love about my job is there's a lot of people with a lot bigger and smarter degrees than me that are in the investing world, but that doesn't mean you have to have all that to pick (26/28)

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good winners. AutoZone I've talked about over a few different podcasts. They just reported blowout earnings. Look into their company filings, read through their transcripts. That's an amazing company. It's amazingly well-run company and that's what you want to focus on when you're talking about investing. This isn't trading, this is investing. I hope that helps. Again, give me your feedback, good or bad. I appreciate this and this opportunity to have my first Wall Street Unplugged podcast to go out to the masses. I filled in on, frankly speaking, a few times, which only goes out to our paid subscribers at Curzio Research. It's been a lot of fun. I hope that you've been somewhat entertained and you have a little extra tools in your toolkit to go find the next great idea. Remember to subscribe to our products here at Curzio Research. Have a wonderful weekend. Frank will be back in the saddle again as Aerosmith sings about next week and we'll get back to our regular schedule. Guys, take (27/28)

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care. Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility. (28/28)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - How to make a fortune from the market carnage.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main There is Thursday May 12th record shows the Wall Street a plug pockets where I break the headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets So I got a great interview set up for you today with the editor best performing newsletter most likely in our entire industry Actually, I'll put her up against almost any single hedge fund manager right now and mutual fund That is Jenny at Terranova that of our money flow trader newsletter, which is a newsletter that focus on buying long dated puts You guys should be very familiar with this product because I put it in front of you at least four times since November And that's when the Fed decided to do a 180 on interest rate policy. I said this time is different There's a fundamental change in the market. You don't have the Fed punch bowl anymore (1/28)

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You need to protect yourself. This is the best way to do it where you're not going short getting crazy and since September She's closed out Numerous winning positions and our portfolio today. She has eight positions Once you just close out of where two are down a combined 31% for a loss. The other six are up an incredible 467 percent in this market right now think about that for a minute So buy long dated puts pretty easy option strategy one anyone could learn you could do right through your online brokerage account It's not shorting where your loss is unlimited when you buy a put your loss is limited to the amount of money you put into The trade today Jenny's gonna break down the markets. Tell you how far low this one could go be Tell you gonna be very surprised with her answer considering the type of newsletter. She writes you think like oh, it's typical right if you perma pull You know perma bull it's you have one level of thinking no matter what happens nothing changes So if you're (2/28)

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a perma bad the mark goes down 75% you like it's gonna crash even further and if you're permeable the mark goes you just that's the way you are you just you Know it doesn't matter what the data is. You just that's the way you are. So just be surprised What she tells you where she thinks the markets going also She's gonna discuss one of her favorite put positions and shared two new picks. She loves in this market Here's my interview with Jenny Terranova Jenny Terranova, thanks so much for coming back on Wall Street unplugged Hi glad to be back. So you went from being kind of unknown to like a rock star now, right? Is that correct? You tell me I'm just happy to beat stocks and they I'm happy to be right No, it's cool because you know, I kind of threw you in the fire there You know put it when you took over the product of money for a trader and this is a few years ago And this is a product that where you you buy puts you're betting against the markets in a safe way Well, you're not you (3/28)

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only limit to the amount of money you put in right? You're not shorting stocks where it could really you can get wrecked especially in a market It's so volatile but it's been it was a tough road because Markets continue to surge and we showed everyone how to use a product use as like an insurance and put you know a certain party portfolio in there and if that's not doing well then You know if you're losing money on that end then you're gonna be doing well because probably the rest of the stocks are going high with the market higher now That the market has changed so dramatically especially since November and especially over the past couple months The positions in your newsletter, I would probably say you may have one of the best before me It's not the best performing newsletter in the entire industry by a mile But it just goes to show you that in this market that may confuse people and they may say well How is that possible and that's what I wanted to go over today? Because I've had (4/28)

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you on a couple of times Janina and I feel like a lot of people don't get it but the Testimonials I'm getting right now for my subscribers, which is amazing, right? That's what we're about when I hire the smartest people the best people and the job you've done is incredible Let's let's talk about you know buying puts and start from scratch Some some people list this podcast all the time listens it religiously and they've heard this before and other people maybe just listen to the first Time so let's start there about buying puts and yeah, that's just one aspect of this newsletter probably a very big component But you know you do go long stocks, but talk about buying puts and you know Why that strategy has been so great in a market like this? well It's very hard to time the market as you know and everybody knows you can be right and you can be seen as bubble coming for Years and years in advance and that you may be right in principle and wrong on details and those are the details that (5/28)

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would you know be Killing you for four years if you are short or just out of the market so the other way to deal with it as who did this with the your strategy and with the money flow trader strategy is to Take positions in longer dated boots and the yeah, it's really a Relatively safe strategy and the safeness of the strategy is related to the amount of capital you would at risk With options are you really? Limited to the amount you invest it that Capital at risk is the amount you invest that's the maximum you can lose your return potential is a Literally unlimited you can of course Have a unlimited return potential with stocks as well. That's why stocks are so popular and yeah investing over years and years and years can get you rich and can turn you into Warren Buffett kind of investor But options can help you do that as well and with both options. You can actually create a safety net While being locked market and they will make your money when the market is like this like we see (6/28)

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today So Jenny when we when the one of the things we spoke offline before we had this and you said, you know What do I think about the markets? I told you, you know when I see people like this even who run these newsletter It's kind of like you'd say it's a bearish newsletter, but not really because you do have long positions in as well When I see, you know, some of the people out there, you know, Peter shifts to Harry Denson that the perma bears, right? Who you know the nerve or bees, you know Usually when the market crashes like it's crashed and then that's X down 25% over 25% Yeah, they'll come out and say the mark is gonna go down another 90% right? It's the same thing with bulls, right? We could pick up on the perma bulls who just say, you know as the market's higher they get become more and more bullish But with you and the conversation we have let's go over that because I was like look I just hate the uncertainty I wish the federal rates a little bit quicker And by more amount (7/28)

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this way They'll have more ammo later on instead of just praying and hoping that inflation is gonna ease over the next three four or five months Which you know it will but we don't know if it's gonna happen sooner rather than later and just you know This constant uncertainty of where you're at In terms of where the market is and being shrinking your balance sheet Raising rates while the markets getting crushed is unprecedented and it's you know You could see it now where people just like I'm I said I'm done. I'm running but when I spoke to you What did you say because I'm surprised being having this type of newsletter? You would think like the markets gonna crash whatever that wasn't your sentiment was it? My sentiment was you try making money on the downside and start picking out Investments that are big it getting ridiculously cheap and you know my strategy I would say I'm a very cautious pessimist Well today maybe a very cautious optimist so I like I like being a Can contrarian and (8/28)

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I like seeing what other people don't see What that helps me a lot with the selecting long and short sides of the market So I don't like saying that I'm a perma something and I think anybody who's a perm or anything is Probably going to run into a problem at some point because the market is never perma anything you want to be Flexible and I think our product Helps us being flexible over the long run. You really want to be invested and again having some protection Like put options like our service that does help you stay in invested while making mark Money on the downside again, if you preach being invested when do start picking out, you know the cheapest of the market when the When there's no hope And that's where we're getting there yeah, so When we talked about this product to over over, you know the last year or so last two years, you know We're always saying how you know, you can protect yourself. You can protect yourself and I think in that way Maybe I wasn't making it clear but (9/28)

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it's not just to protect yourself because you're protected when you say insurance and you say a hedge It's It's not a buzzword, right? It's not like hey, it's a greedy word we can make this much or it's a fear word when you say hedge It's kind of boring. I think people just didn't take exception to it like oh, well, you know or a hedge I don't wanna hedge my port for I want to go unlimited gains. I don't care Let me tell you some of these gains right and I'm gonna go something. So door dash. I mean Talk about your door dash position, which I saw just one part of it I know there's different parts of it up over 200 cent bought, you know, June 17th 2022 $90 puts $5.25 over 17 now But talk about that trade because there's different levels of how you sold how you took profits and how you bought it But talk about that trade, by the way, I'm not cherry-picking here because I'm gonna go over I think there's either 10 so there's a position your portfolio. There's one that's down 24% another (10/28)

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down 7% the rest are combined. They're up 467 percent since September Okay, did there's no one in the ballpark? No one's even close to that during some say that's when the market really like right November really started to come down. So I'm not cherry-picking here, but that's one example I want to show how you know, what was your idea behind that trade door dash? And you know, it wasn't just like hey We're buying these puts because there's certain levels and you've taken profits Take us through that of how people could actually trade this like you trade in money for a trader well Door dash is one of those companies that there Is big enough so it's liquid enough and the I bet that everybody knows it But I also bet that not everybody understands that it's hard to make money Being this big and running this many Little businesses which you every dasher as they call them is a little it's a small business. They're not really a Employees of the company. They're almost like independent (11/28)

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contractors So it's a beard in the sense it's a very business model that we are also know with the uber and lyft and the market was giving Door dash a lot of leeway in in the way that you know They could they have the entire market of food delivery almost to themselves No other competitors are coming close in the market share and just give them time and they will Corner the market and they will be able to charge pretty much anything they want And turns out that that's not really the case and the charging anything they want for the to turn the company profitable will Not be acceptable to the customers of door gash and that's how the company is getting really into trouble they running a lot of Promotions they selling door that that's pass They Booking record revenues and they're further away from being profitable in a board during The two years ago during to pick over a call it so it's Ultimately, they have to change something in the company that wants to change something that they will (12/28)

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tell us They'll let the investors and door dash doesn't really they like what they're doing and the stock market So that's that's the ultimate bear case for the stock In a nutshell and the way we traded it was really to pick out or the step-by-step and then stock rallied with to a Book trade and let's talk rally again with double down. You have to be confident to do that. I was So when you're looking at a door dish just one of them went where I look at you but Tunnel capital short innovation ETF, which is that's ETF. So it's not puts right? So you're basically shorting Kathy was I think it's arc Innovation fund. I know you talked to me about that. You said hey, what do I think about it? I don't know what I said, but I'm glad hopefully if I said that I might be bottomed out here that you didn't listen to me What I said back then but that's up 64% fee. It's another point you purchase. I don't give away too much In April's up 92% So again those eight positions, you know There's two that (13/28)

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are down is one down 24% one down 7% Which I think they might actually be up today and the rest are combined, you know over 460% And that doesn't include the invest go Nasdaq next-gen 100 ETF put you closed out for 100% gain new relic Put you closed out for 165% gain You're in a market where? It seems like you know doesn't seem like but if you look over the past 10 years You could have just took a dart through it anyplace and chances are the stocks gonna be up Do you it seems you know over the past few months? It's been the opposite market where you could have shorted almost anything and you're gonna be making money It turns out technology is under before much more than everything else. Is there a sector out there? Maybe like energy that you think energy. I'm bullish on Not crazy bullish, but I'm just but you know, it has gone up a lot But is there a sector right now that people really think that hey, you know what? This is kind of a safe haven that you're like a little worried about (14/28)

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maybe Well, I think energy is a safe haven Sector that they're selling off today for a good reason because it was overextended I think the consumer staples is not really cheap and you want to be very careful when they Picking out their consumer staple for a long term And that that these values although again It Is one of the best performing sectors Over the past few months because again the market is looking for safety any way it can Some of the utilities are getting crushed and they're getting overvalued as a group and that's the reason they're getting a little bit Sold and as a rule the utilities don't like higher interest rates. It's a very capital intensive business So you have to be very careful with utilities again. It's a one-by-one basis because If you seriously look at the market, there's always something to be worried about and the for some stocks They're just to get sometimes they get so cheap the risk is becoming more worth it and You understand the company and the business (15/28)

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you do see a long term business model and the stability of that business model over a longer a Cycle a few years at least and that's where you start picking out those stocks especially the ones that pay dividends that's the one that will get you out of this hole and Again you start investing If you don't know where to look you start investing a little by little into those value stocks And you also run a portfolio for us in newsletter called limited income What is some what are some of the names you could throw out there without giving anything away from your newsletter? But are there names that you'd like that you'd say? Hey, you know what like this is an area that you know You really need to buy this maybe you know, again We don't know what's gonna happen next week the next month But overall if you're really long term investor, this is a no-brainer Well, if this is a no-brainer type of stock, I think You want to buy something that's not going away anytime soon and You don't want to go (16/28)

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for something that's cheap just because it is cheap trading on the low price to earnings Multiple but you also want to look into You know long term Expectation Is this going to be around? If the economy crashes and if it's going to be around a few years from now stocks like Intel Philip Morris probably I'm not in love with Philip Morris, but you know People will go into smoke especially if for the economy is crashing it's the kind of fur Sin stocks that will going to survive This type of fur Beer might be a very good place to look start looking that's That that's where I would start and Where where do you see and of course this is you know, again coin flip really nobody knows but What are your thoughts in terms of how far like, you know, you would say, okay, we could probably pick away It looks pretty good here, you know, and it is valuations and value stocks and stuff But but how far could we? Come down. I mean people that that's a question people are worried about I mean, it's like a (17/28)

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level and people say technical levels and they brag technicals of us until they're broken Right, and these are always broken and they're like they'll have another technical level But you know, what are we looking here in terms of you know, the Fed inflation I mean, you know, when do we draw the line in the sand and say enough's enough There's something that we need to see because you know We're so used to the Fed being there for us all the time over the past 10 12 years and you know Buying bonds and keeping rates low and those two things are gone Now it's you know, there's a lot of companies extending themselves We've seen that with SPACs SPACs are basically a completely dead market now A lot of these things getting crushed but you know I mean how low is it just is it gonna be like a bigger separation and what we're seeing where? You know these aggressive names high debt, you know not expect to generate earnings anytime soon I mean, you know, we're gonna have to see some of these (18/28)

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things go bankrupt Before we hit about like what are some of the things that you may see over your career that you're saying? Okay, we're getting close I thought it was a nine-to-one down market VIX going past 35 that apparently is not it right now So I was just curious if there's something that you that you would like to see and say, okay You know, we shouldn't even getting closer than you think we are right now. I Would like to see our small caps turning That that's something that there would be very positive for me because like in the 2000 in the bubble in the Dot-com bubble that the small small caps actually did really well there was there were a different story because that they were really cheap or coming into that bubble but still the small caps are indicative of the economy and yeah, they're If they're start turning that would be a very positive sign. So that's something I would like to see I would like to see months a little bit this At least showing some signs of life because (19/28)

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as you probably know that this year was Brutal for both stocks and bonds which again made it brutal for everybody And I want to see some bonds turning around just a little bit which would mean that the rates are stabilizing That would be also good for the economy for the market, but I think the small caps that keep you on small caps That's interesting small caps so broadcaster from Staten Island in New York, you know, I really appreciate you doing this and you know for me, I just wanted to give people like another update because You know when I hired you a few years ago against it to run this news I said earlier kind of three in the fire because the market didn't go up and it was tough But you were able to adapt and I've always respected that because I was put in that position when I was you know Analysis Street calm where it was stocks under 10 It was great stocks that were like 13 14 15 I stayed away from that double and triple and I said listen you got to take the handcuffs off We (20/28)

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got to be able to adapt and change Now, you know, I've seen you recommend a couple of things on the long side as well where whether it was gold whether it was silver You know in particular sectors but just to see how you adapted with that and maintain still like, you know, the put buying strategy here and the performance and Really all the testimonies that are coming in, you know, I just want to say thank you very much That's what our brands about is really helping out the individual investor and if you've done an incredible incredible job Especially, you know through this through all the craziness and yeah, I know the subscribers appreciate it very much Thank you. I appreciate the nice word. Thank you so much All right. Thanks for coming on. I'll talk to you soon. Thanks. Jenny What's fun? Thank you Man, Jimmy is incredible. I mean I got very lucky in hiring her If they're talking to her on the first call and it was funny I think I was in New York at the time and I was talking to her (21/28)

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and I remember getting off I think I was with Veronica Shroes our publisher and I was just like, holy shit I was like, you know, she's really smart and I don't really say that often off of first phone call with anybody, you know Maybe it's because of the brilliant people I talked to I know, you know It's like I didn't know Jenny at all and when I spoke to I was like wow, like she she just really got it You know, she kind of blew me away but just the job that she's done has been incredible for us Right and incredible for subscribers and both of our products money for trade and also a limited income She doesn't sugarcoat anything. She's not a perma anything She's a data analytics person someone that has pulsed in the market knows how to trade and make money off of it Which you guys know from following her The testimonials that have come in I mentioned this before It's coming recently and you know, these aren't testimonies. We don't ask for these are people actually writing in to us To (22/28)

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tell us, you know and say, you know, thank you You know, you say your portfolio best thing ever did describe as an MFT, which is one foot trader, you know praising her it's something that I'm very proud of Accurate research because you know My job is put great people in front of you And I think a lot of people would say that with their company and and hire great people in that You know, sometimes you get it wrong You know, you think you'll get it right and sometimes you just get it wrong and that's one of the ones I definitely got right You know, it always doesn't work out that way. Unfortunately hiring You know new people and things could be different and everyone says the right thing when they get hired Everyone's always happy then you realize that after a while working closely with them. I like wow, this is a lot different You know with Ginnia it it wasn't like that Which any worked out amazingly and even much much better than I ever thought so I know that I'm very very glad to have (23/28)

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her on a team I know that subscribers feel the same and they're happy and you know I wanted to get her on just to show you hey, you know what? The markets terrible right now could have anyone on and they're gonna tell you how much you know Whatever this what you need to do an inflation all this stuff that here's someone that's actually making money in this market It's a product that we have under our umbrella It's a product that I put in front of you many times if you want it You want it if you don't you don't that's perfectly fine But please I mean you need to learn how to protect yourself Maybe I didn't do a good job where you know I just get someone excited about a product and we have a you know an offering coming up which is very very exciting and you Know we're getting lots of people said I want to get in this, you know, it's a deal for our company and you know It's going to our subscriber base first. I can't really talk about it too much Just my subscribers are starting to learn (24/28)

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about it. We're gonna come out for our company and raise money, but When I say the word hedge like I told her it's it's not like a buzzword and maybe that's my fault But this isn't like a hedge. This is making a lot a lot of money when the markets coming down I mean, this is almost like a greed product, right? So it's there's one thing to make money alongside everyone There's another thing to make money and not just preserve your capital during these times Well, you're able to make money and a market like this and you know Just offer these little protections and stuff which again are very easy to do You know That's how you make an absolute fortune this market and you position yourself perfectly and instead of having her on and just say no Well the markets going lower lower low, which most people do because once they make a bold call, they're right They double down they triple down. That's when they get if you don't even say it But you know for her to be like hey, we're getting to (25/28)

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levels where no no No, it's you know makes it start picking away and giving you long names now when back Yeah, four or five six months ago. She's you know, buying put saying hey, you know, you should be you be careful Of these names, right? So it just shows how you know, she lets the market she looks to market She analyzed the market and that's how she determines, you know where she wants to go with a strategy how to make money off it It's not like just closed mind policy and I've seen it because I always say I was fortunate to work with my dad and I was always fortunate to work with Jim Cramer because my dad was a pure value guy and my dad was a pessimist and he was kind of like a perma bear and Jim Cramer was an optimist and he was a perma bull and It was one of the greatest educations I could learn and by having both of them it didn't you know pin me down to one Strategy, it's hey, there's certain times of a bullish there's certain times to be bearish and gotta protect yourself (26/28)

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We're in a market where you had to protect yourself. We try and protect yourself Yeah, do we think it was gonna come down this much? No, but that's why you have products like money flow trader when it does come down this much This is how you make an absolute killing. So I just want to thank Jenny for coming on really great stuff And yeah, that's it for me questions a comment, especially about Jenny about money flow trader. Feel free to give me a shout Frank crazy research that kind of that's Frank at crazy research calm Enjoy the weekend guys And if you are a subscriber pay subscriber get Frankie speaking tomorrow defilis and up especially to that idea I've been talking about but now it's official and we're launching so it's a great great stuff and I have more details And everything for you tomorrow, but for those who are not paid subscribers, you know you get frankly speaking because that's not on iTunes and Unfortunately, yeah gonna spend a whole weekend without me you'll see me on (27/28)

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Monday. So take care and I'll see you guys next week Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (28/28)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Current market conditions are a recipe for disaster.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main Seven Pinker's the wall shrimp of pockets where I beat the hell is and Tell you what's really moving these markets man word of advice Don't ever build your own home. Whoever says it's the best thing in the world. You got to do it. They're lying Holy cow the amount of time Aggravation BS everyone trying to rip you off HOA permits Your relationship with your spouse It better be really really strong to survive this because whole it's stressful It's really stressful And during the fact my wife's in a car four hours a day driving my daughter to school Which she lets me know about for probably two and a half of those four hours every single day Then of course the work schedule everybody has I work a lot Then they get home, which usually late. I'm helping my kids with their homework and I don't know (1/28)

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how it is with homework with you But when I or with your kids when I grew up and again, I was a bad student. I didn't really do too much homework But it's insane I Mean it is insane. It's my 12 year old right? This is just a homework from last night So She needs a study for history test. It's gonna be India ancient times, which is seven chapters and 60 pages includes 30 definitions and essays She has 20 problems in math to do and the 20 problems are not easy like hard word problems conversion charts tables stuff that I have to go back and look at English and grammar which makes her label every word in every sentence like could you help me with this every word? So I'm just talking nouns verbs actions adverbs that's easy but subject nouns subordinate conjunctions objects of the prepositions I Mean, I'm considered a professional writer. I don't know how to find half of that shit anymore You're kidding me. I Just labeling everything Over the top and that's not it She's vocabulary for (2/28)

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English like twin words every week that a test are on and it's not like this multiple choice And I could teach her hey, you know how to eliminate some of these answers and this way could increase your odds to get it Right. No, no, no, no, they make her write sentences with these words to make sure that she actually knows what they mean This is three book reports do this week of books that she read pretty much over the past Three to four weeks and two tests and two quizzes this week And that's more work that I did my sophomore year college and she's in the sixth grade My wife and I were talking about it we were pissed off because we're up helping our we have no time But you know like alright, we need to see the teacher We saw a teacher last week and I asked her, you know, we sat down as like as a known for a 12 year old To go to school for seven hours a day, right? 35 hours a week and then have at least three hours of homework every day. I mean you look at 50 hours a week This kids in (3/28)

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China making Nike sneakers that wouldn't trade places with my daughter right now. Maybe like no way that's slave labor I won't even do that ever. It's crazy. But apparently This is the norm for people I talk to how much homework these kids have but it's insane It's insane like so much and even when I'm studying some of this stuff. I have to learn it's not like oh well There's gonna be easy. I'm gonna help her out It's not that easy. I Told my daughter look just get C's you get C's your gold because by the time you get to college You're gonna know more your professors But just that the time management Right now with my life in the house. Holy shit, man. I don't know who said Bill Jones how it's gonna be great I used to play golf at least once a week now, it's Maybe once every three weeks I mean I go out and I hacked the ball and I have a great time because I'm just out I don't even care The idea of free time now is watching five minutes of tik-tok in the bathroom once a day and even (4/28)

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then my wife and daughters Are like knocking. Hey, you're coming. I'm like, just give me five bit five minutes five minutes I Should have stayed put not build a new house not send them to new schools When I was a real idiot in high school, and I think I don't know. I think I turned out okay, but that nuts We have to reach for the stars go all in go get the house and everything Anyway enough pitching these could be a lot worse, I guess There's not too many people out there That are telling you. Hey, you know what you buy new home where you're building your new home It's stressful. I was like, oh you got to do it. It's great. It's great. That's what you hear all the time Like the Disney postcards you see Your seven year old daughter on your dad's shoulders The mommy and I wrote son Holding hands sharing an ice cream cone You know You don't seize the parents waiting two hours for the ferry a tram to get out of Disney World at 9 p.m Because the kids want to see the fireworks and they want (5/28)

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to fall asleep anyway They're crying Parents are telling the kids shut the F up before I throw you in the lake. You don't see that you don't see that believe me any parents leaving Disney World and Staying there for the fireworks knows exactly what I'm talking about because you're like, oh, all right I'm done and next thing you know It's like two and a half hours to get to your car and then another probably half an hour in traffic to drive to your Hotel and then are you getting something to eat if you eat at Disney's gonna cost you like 500 bucks for kids They don't tell you that on the postcard now just like the house I don't tell you that how stressful it's gonna be how crazy it is. Anyway house is almost done Moving in a few weeks schools gonna be like 15 minutes away so much happier times ahead But I like bitching especially on my podcast right? It's therapy Forces you guys to listen or maybe you don't listen. I don't know anyway Appreciate support gonna have fun getting emails on (6/28)

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this but stressful times all I guess Good stuff and good problems to have right? Healthy daughters building a new house going to good schools working hard But still doesn't mean I can't bitch about it like everybody else and man. This is a bitchin world these days. Everybody bitches Friends family. I mean you can't remember we used to go over used to have beers and laugh and joke Everybody's bitching about everything now, right? They bitch about everything everything no matter what it is. It's just it's like ah, I just like walk away I don't want to hear it and as he get older That's why I was appreciating my grandma and then she was alive and grandparents and stuff like there's no bullshit, right? Like they don't want to hear something like I don't want to hear it. Just stop talking They just they know times limited They don't want to do any of the bullshit, but I see that as I just turned 50 now But anyway, let's get to the markets. Let's have some fun here because earning season (7/28)

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About 75% done and it's been a disaster for the most part You wouldn't know that by watching TV or watching where the major indices are right, but We're all said and done this quarter q4 earnings are like this to Decline by over 5% year over year and now earnings have been revised so much They're going to they're expected to climb the next two quarters, right? So you have two quarters earnings recession It's gonna be at least three quarters probably more than that But estimates have finally been coming down tremendously So you look at September earnings this quarter projected to grow over 2% again They're gonna see minus 5% of the quarter. That's how big the revision was amazing Tech companies have weak earnings. I think they're down like 20% year over year margins down 10% the same time frame even recently Pinterest chegg take to lowered guides for this disaster. I mean, this is like recently over the past few days or so I mean you're looking at these numbers. They just been oh Yeah, (8/28)

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lowering lowering lowering but you know, it doesn't matter, you know companies miss their stocks are holding out Well, which is crazy considering How much almost every stock has run up into the earnings report so usually if the stock is Running up into earnings and they beat earnings. Usually you see a little bit of a decline and okay, it ran up But now it's like you're running up into earnings to earnings are terrible Especially the fact names of most technology stocks and even the ones that beat like, you know Skyworks Just just look what the estimates were like three months ago and a bit lowered significantly most of them by 10 15% Maybe kidding by 10 15% over the past three months That's how much they've been lower and you're gonna hear that earnings beat 70% of these companies have beat earnings estimates the revised estimates I mean 80% would have missed if you kept the estimates from three months ago. I'm gonna tell you that But it's gonna matter sound like I'm bitching and so, (9/28)

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you know good, you know, if you long stocks, that's good You know, they're going up whatever but it is gonna matter it really is But just to see where earnings Are and how you see earnings declining starting to decline sharply and still for 2023 right now as of today As expected 2023 earnings ago 3% Year over year 3% recognized 3% Even though they're expecting they just had Negative growth negative 5% right around that's where it's gonna end a little bit more than 5% for q4 They revised the estimates lower the next two cores So they're gonna show negative and negative but they still think earnings are gonna grow I think By the third or fourth quarter like by 10% magically I don't know if they think that the feds gonna lower rates and immediately like the feds gonna bet we're low on rates and everyone in The world the next day is going to go out and spend everything they have in a bank. Right? That's they think 10% Maybe it happens at all But I could tell you It's a recipe for disaster (10/28)

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when you see stock prices not just Gradually going high dis surging while Earnings are plunging. It's a recipe for disaster. Just a matter of when when it's gonna happen And it will happen it's gonna get ugly I'm gonna protect yourself. You want to be long we do good in our portfolios However, you got to be protecting yourself. You got to be careful All the news stories. I try to break down a couple things, especially my monologue talk about Ford how that was disaster I love how people are saying that oh wow, the CEO was so honest on the call Really? He was honest on the call because he said he had shitty numbers if he was really honest He would have told you how shitty the company was the last four quarters instead of lying about your projections and lying about the money that you're putting in and how you know EVs and the demand is Through the roof the demand is so strong It's so strong for our cars right now that we're actually gonna lower prices. We're gonna lower prices, even (11/28)

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though we don't make money Currently on any EV we sell we're gonna lower prices. We're gonna lower them just for you who lowers prices if demand is high. I Mean, I just hate when CEOs lie through their teeth. But again Ford ran up 25 30 percent into the quarter reported the worst quarter by far this earning season and Fell probably it's down 7% off for those highs We should be down pretty much 25 30 percent and that's gonna happen You're gonna see some companies have pricing powers some companies doing okay, that's good I'll try to find those for you throw them into portfolios and not every single company but there's a lot of names that are in big trouble when you tell me that Your strategy for Ford and you can see there's a Ford GM, which I've been telling you guys about for a while but you see the difference with Ford where they come out and say we're low in prices and We're not gonna see profits on these cars until 2025 Imagine you have a company and you're spending 50 your market (12/28)

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cap I mean little more than your market cap, right you spending 50 billion dollars on a growth model That you're not gonna make money on for the next three years and not because you're overspending Even if they didn't understand it because every product every car you sell you're losing money on not to mention Tesla owns the market they're low in prices They're still selling cars like crazy And yet Ford's gonna be like we sell the second most cars at six thousand whatever BV's I Don't know you better sell more those Ford 150 gas guzzlers because that's your highest margin product And you're trying to get off of that. Hopefully you go back to GM realize that a lot earlier than you Jim was like, oh, we're not going all EVs. No, no, we'll try to get into autonomous. Yes, Evie's We're gonna have a nice portfolio, but we're selling these cars We're just keeping on the radar and not be on the map where we can get yelled at by the politicians and bullshit climate Maniacs, that's fine. But (13/28)

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anyway, you're looking at earnings a horrible, but but that was Ford last week this week You know One of the biggest stories I wanted to talk about is Newmont Newmont's proposed takeover of Newcrest Newmont is a portfolio holding and the stock went down about 6% on that news. I think I Think it's a screaming buy here one They're looking to pay 17 billion dollars for Newmont which they have they're gonna do in stock mostly For Newcrest right they look at it by Newcrest, which is you know, one of the Largest miners right or the largest miner in Australia gold producer big copper producer as well and The reason why I like Newmont because the deal they think Newcrest is gonna you know ask for a little bit more money They already did they you know, it was behind the scenes and I don't know when They tried to purchase them but this price apparently is like 7 to 10 percent higher or something like that Then the price was and I didn't get a time frame, but it could have been like a month ago (14/28)

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or six months ago Whatever, but they said this is a second second time. They came back They might ask for a little bit more but yeah, I'm not sure the deal will get done Right because you have Newcrest which has great assets long shelf life You know again huge copper producer But shitty management right they still looking for CEO the past three months the previous CEO Left in December he was there for eight years and he was bullying the shit out of people where he would humiliate employees if they didn't make their goals So, you know, that's probably why the company had record profits, but every employee was like seeing a shrink, right? So I'm not too sure If you're happy about that, maybe if you're an investor, yeah I don't know if that's the fight success, but he came out like this whole apology You wind up leaving pretty much abruptly in December. I guess Yeah, for some reason think he was gonna leave he made this big apology why apologize and then leave anyway But so don't have a (15/28)

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CEO's have management, you know issues and stuff and for newmont It's they have great fundamentals, but growth expected to slow over the next 12 months or so But you know, it's pricing to the stock where it's being down. So I really like it Nice dividend, but this is going to help the company significantly Okay, they're saying it might be dilutive to earnings right instead of being a creative right away where you're making money off of it Right away where you you know You're gonna lose money off a couple of years not that much because if you look at gold companies It's not like, you know factories and Ford or or you know, whatever Yeah, well you can cut costs and you have synergies and stuff like that You know, you have gold mines in different places and it's not like you can cut employees You still need to develop you still need to have trucks that you still need to have, you know separate people on site You know, it's not like oh, well, let's close that mine and then merge it into (16/28)

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here You can't do that with fact with factories. You can I've got four factories Let's close two of them. All of our production comes from here now, you know again, I make it pretty easy But there's not a lot of synergies in some of these things what it what it is for Newmont though, and why? This is gonna be fantastic for them Well one is if the deal doesn't go through at this price Newcrest has to be careful I don't know if that anyone else is gonna come up with this price. You could say Barrick I'm not too sure if Barrick would do it though They'll be not a merger of equals but they have a smaller market cap than then Newmont but if Newmont is able to pull this off and buy Newcrest listen to these numbers guys Newmont's gonna increase their gold reserves by 60 million ounces. That's a 50% increase They're gonna increase their measured inferred resources by a hundred and twenty million which Newcrest M&I resources are greater Right, so they're gonna increase by a hundred and fifty (17/28)

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percent They're gonna increase their copper revenue right now accounts for three percent of sales are gonna count for more than ten percent of sales so gonna increase their sales of copper by two hundred and thirty percent and two hundred thirty percent Which is huge copies on fire cover that in a second and the combined company is gonna produce roughly eight million ounces of gold production at an average all-in cost of 1150 I Mean you talk about margins talk about a great investment. This is it. This is great They can go a little bit higher for it, but this is it now Why do I like Newmont because either they're gonna get this deal done and maybe the stock goes a little bit lower because that's what? Happens when you acquire you make a large acquisition but if you're a believer in gold over the next two three years of how big it's gonna be and I've bought so many companies like This that they're all choir They have like one of the biggest acquisitions in their history and you'll see (18/28)

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the stock come down be ten fifteen percent and two years Later be up like two hundred percent I've made a lot of money in my career doing that what companies just seeing that made this whole balance because everyone's like quick quick They want to know one year. It's gonna be dilutive. I just told you the numbers. I mean, this is you know It's Newmont and everybody else. I mean you got Barrick Agnies. I mean, they're not even in a ballpark of Newmont anymore Not only that the copper is huge when you look at the bigger picture. I Mean, it's difficult to add reserves in low-risk countries And it's been lightweight for decades so if you look at of This is Thompson right times the first call right as a paint that that came up with the status fantastic 341 major deposit discovered between 1990 and 2021 so we're looking at you have 30 years basically Only 28 of those 341 were found in the past decade of those 28 again since 1990 They've only amounted to just 6% of a total gold discovered (19/28)

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Since 1990 for the past 30 years. That's how crazy it is and how difficult it is to find major gold deposits, especially in mine-friendly jurisdictions More importantly, let's dig in a little bit. This is why I wanted to cover this subject today Look at the recent deals that we've seen in gold Newcrest mining buying Between resources you have Agnico Eagle and Kirkland Lake gold. That's a 10 billion dollar merger Kinross Gold's 1.4 billion acquisition of Great Bear Resources, which They say to junior, but it's a super high-grade project. It's a really special project great bear resources, right? So 1.4 billion So you look at these deals And for me it makes you think that the junior miners could be in a lot of trouble a Lot of trouble because why would these companies go after the junior miners and you can say well They might have this big discovery and again, they're planting it their flag in the ground. Everyone's like, you know cheering. Okay, great That's awesome. And they try to (20/28)

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sell this project. They'll drill a couple holes here or there, you know a few million dollars Whatever they try to sell these projects, you know increase that grade increase that deposit as much they can make it look You know wrap it in just nice, you know present and this way they'll get bought by the bigger guys. However, I Mean you're looking at what 12 to 15 years by the time you put that stick in the ground and drill that first hard You know just to see what's in the ground compared to when you're actually producing gold so Think about the costs associated with that I mean you are looking the costs right now these juniors are gonna quite tens If not hundreds of millions in capital over the years to bring these projects to production not to mention The borrowing costs and financing now compared to last year, you know how much it costs now difficult is a raise money It's not that easy anymore. It's insane. So when you're looking at this Unless it's a fantastic high-grade gold (21/28)

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project with super low cost, which I don't think you're gonna find anywhere It makes you think like the juniors and look at prices and go go up To 22 23 24 100 the whole market's gonna do well and junior miners might outperform the bigger guys But you could see how the bigger guys are processing position themselves They're not going out like 17 billions enough to buy like almost every freaking junior on the planet. They're like fu we don't want that This is what we want. We need producing producing assets have long lives more than 10 years and more importantly You want to make sure that it's not just gold producing but gold producers have lots of exposure to copper because copper prices and Man, you think it's supply demand and balance for uranium is crazy. You should see copper Prices have been surging for the past few months and that was we China close China's open. I mean look out but gold prices I see gold go much higher this year over 2000. I think 2200 2300 would not surprise me (22/28)

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margins for companies like Ken Ross Barrick Newmont are gonna explode higher as you're looking at that all-in costs around 1100 1150 And they're already printing money at 1800 1700 gold prices right they have dividends cash flow massive cash flow that's generating Get the only thing that happened to these companies and why it wasn't so big is cuz those all-in sustainable costs were $900 and it was thousand now. They're like 11 11 50 because the cost oil rubber tires melt I mean, it's it's insane how much the cost have gone up to drill to mine and That's what's kept these guys from really going a lot higher because in a market where you seen again technology company their margins on average are down 10% from Last year year over year this coming quarter compared to last quarter earnings are down tremendously But margins are down 10% This is that these are companies that margins are getting higher and higher and higher you're not seeing that a lot right companies are starting to lose (23/28)

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pricing power But if you look at gold as prices go higher And now these guys finding ways to eliminate their cost and maybe you know Cut back on employees and lower costs That improve their cost structure But then when you see that underlying commodity going higher and higher which is likely with gold from here I mean a lot of people see gold over 2000 issue. I don't see the 1500 You know wherever it is now 1800 level But to me, that's a big story That's 17 billion dollar bids a big story. I want to see if that goes through If Newmont get that deal done great for them might have to go a little bit higher on it but I'd be careful if it was Newcrest because I don't think anyone else is coming around the corner and Again looking for a new CEO the culture the employees and stuff like that hasn't been too good over there They better be careful. Yeah, they better be careful because If Newmont calls that bluff and says hey, you know what I'm walking away kind of like have what Amazon did To (24/28)

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AOC when she was like, oh we don't want these tax credits or whatever You know, she didn't understand economics that how much they were gonna give to community Long Island City and pay these You know new employees. I think was 25,000 new employees and stuff and build this, you know home base In Long Island City, which is such a great area man. Just you know, the melting pot man. Just so many different Nationalities hard workers it you know, I've lived there for a few years in Queens and AOC was just like, you know She like pounding chests was like yeah, I beat Amazon Amazon like two seconds like alright We'll go someplace else because there's five million places in the world that want this deal That would take this deal the heartbeat. She just didn't understand economics Be careful with Newcrest because they push push push and if Newmont walks away You're gonna see that stock really get hammered because I don't think anyone else is coming. I Don't see Barrett coming. That would be a (25/28)

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very big deal. Maybe maybe They win the big medal of minor producers. I'm not sure we'll see but definitely get some exposure to go Especially now since gold stocks have really taken a beat in the past week And holy cow, these names down. I use the opportunity to buy in this pullback. It's a great opportunity if you have a 12 24 36 month time horizon It seems long from 12 36 months for seriously the next two years with gold I think It's one of the areas that you could see clearly Where the margins are gonna go higher where it just makes sense with all the government spending what everything people go into gold as a safe Haven is a store of value. Even the margins are good in this industry As long as you're holding up above 16 1700, which I see gold prices easily doing likely going over to 2000 These companies gonna print money. The big names are gonna have nice dividends And when you've seen a lot of consolidation in the industry It is an area that actually has is not uncertain over (26/28)

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the next couple years And that's why I like it It's a great place to park some of your money and get exposure and I do that on this pullback Especially in Newmont. Newmont could come down a little bit more if that deal gets through if that deals doesn't go through you're gonna see The price jump up pretty much Regain everything that's lost which is down about 6% since they made that offer maybe goes down a little more But again take a small position and add to it hoping that it goes down even more because if this deal gets done holy cow new what's gonna be a powerhouse a powerhouse I Mean they're going to be the Gold company and man just the valuation everything it'd be a screaming buy if that deal goes through I'm hoping that stock would come down. We have a half position right now That's why I'll use to add to that position. I think we have that in cursor research enterprise So guys, that's it for me covered a lot today. Sorry about the bitchin. I don't do it often but again Release (27/28)

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some stress. I'm glad you guys are there to listen to me or not. Listen to me I'm sure I'll know by getting your emails and those questions comments go to Frank at Curzio research come that's Frank at Curzio research calm I'll see you guys tomorrow with one only day of preach. Take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (28/28)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - This date will make—or break—the markets.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main This is going up there. It's August 30th I think I was the Washington pocket so I break the headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets Yeah, I love what earning season ends Cuz it's like nothing at all talk about in the financial news networks I mean take today for example Then one story is Musk filing an amended 13d for Twitter citing the whistleblower who was the head of security at Twitter Sure, you guys saw the video by now Twitter had no security at all on its accounts and just you know ranting and raving or whatever But Musk is amending its 13d for Twitter Where it's another reason that he wants to terminate the merger and this is everywhere. You know really nobody cares It gets hits because Musk has what over 100 million followers on Twitter only 100 million So I guess (1/28)

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those hits mean higher ad dollars on the slow days for the network, so I get it But I would have talked about another story in the Wall Street Journal today, which is much more entertaining But our Missouri school district is bringing back paddling oh I love this story have to thank mr. Creech for this one where teachers are basically allowed to beat the shit out of your kids with a paddle if they don't listen and by the way the article cites that this is legal in 18 states I had no idea and They even go into like the policy inside the policy runs where it requires two people where one beats the shit out of your kid while the other has to be The service a witness to make sure your kid doesn't get smacked in the face with the paddle That's a no-no can't smack him in the face with the paddle you could beat the crap out of them black and blues Don't hit him in the face. It's like the cops right with the telephone book right they always punch You with the telephone book I won't tell you (2/28)

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how I know that I promise, but that doesn't leave marks at least on your face But I mean you know what happens Witness thing is kind of funny. What does he go to court? And you call that witness they're gonna say like yes, you're on a teacher beat the shit out of the kid They were screaming, but they didn't him in the face But they're going over like the back and forth of why this is good, and why they shouldn't happen, but kids today are probably like You know if you hit me I'm gonna tape it with my phone and go viral on social media they tape everything But then again you can't have your phones when you're in your classes you do it before and after but You know I have kids and cousins nieces nephews. You can't have your phone during class at all. They'll take it from you Right so I don't know how they're gonna do that, but back in the day when I went to school It was Catholic school. Let me tell you something the nuns beat the shit out of us and If you went on to complain to your (3/28)

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parents your parents would then beat the shit out of you, so you didn't mess around There's law and order back then not like today but those nuns I mean they hated everything Hated everyone I mean think about you serving God you're preaching you're supposed to love people God Jesus This is great. I mean nuns in the 80s. They hated you they hated your parents. They hated everything I mean it was like illegal for them to smile I Mean it was insane when I went to school Anyway there's a much better story than Elon Musk reiterating that he's not buying Twitter $54 since it's 39 now Keep throwing stuff at that more evidence. We're not getting enough what you guys lied to us it makes sense I mean 54 to 39 might not sound like a big difference But at 54 Twitter had a 44 billion dollar market cap If you buy it at 39 today, it's gonna save him 13 billion dollars. It's a big deal. It's a very big deal So yes, he's doing everything possible to get out of it, but to the bigger point here hate to (4/28)

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tell you this you can believe it or not Sometimes there's nothing important going on in the financial world So what we're gonna do a digest earnings and digest powers comments at Jackson Hole, which everyone feels relevant even though two years ago What did he say? The Fed is going to change its policy or the way it looks at raising rates meaning if inflation moves higher But employment is strong they're not going to raise rates. He said that two years ago Think about that August 2020 five months after the heart of COVID the market was coming back roaring back right crashed in March Just just started to surge off the lows And this is after he knew inflation was about to skyrocket as the government was about to release trillions into the economy for free handing trillions to you Trillions put that in perspective I say this a lot 480 billion that was used for tarp to bail out the world and think about the 500 billion use For our kids and tuition, I'll get more of that in a minute it (5/28)

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shows you how much money this is Even though people don't really care. It's just a number now, but getting back to Powell I Mean you're looking at August 2021 so a year ago at Jackson Hole Inflation at 5% he totally went don't worry about a thing. It's transit or you idiots. It's transit. Don't worry about it There's nothing to see here. That's what he said But now he says we're gonna raise rates Aggressively, we're gonna raise them like crazy to control inflation that inflation that I didn't see coming for two years now I see it, and I'm gonna raise rates incredibly higher even at the fastest Rate hike cycle in history where raised fed funds rate by two percent in three months Doesn't sound like a lot two percent That's considered eight rate hikes by normal standards because they figure a rate hike under normal circumstances is 25 basis points Let's they consider so in February every economist every Every cut this is February not too long ago this year They're predicting three to four (6/28)

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twenty five basis point hikes max word eight already Our Fed chair just said hey We even close to being done Now this tone is spooking the markets and you know what? It should Because if Powell is serious about Gresley raising rates through next year Forget about stocks Forget about everything every asset class is gonna get destroyed. I know it's a different tone for me being bullish There's contingent on the Fed seeing what's going on out there, which I'm gonna explain in a minute and saying okay in September We got to relax a little bit Right now pedal to the metal. I Mean just with the current rate hikes, which by the way, the last 75 basis point hike is not even factored into the economy yet But just from the recent hikes This Caused the housing market to crash in six months in six months You know how hard that is to do to crash the housing market and six months that fast You see the services PMI how much you drop last call unprecedented which the clear side consumer spending is (7/28)

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plunging major retailers Best buy Walmart Target lowing prices get massive inventory off their books Half of the companies SP 500 about to announce layoffs this is from price what house coopers half of them Those unemployment numbers that were positive on the economy's doing good. They're gonna go to shit very quickly very quickly Non-residential construction spending at 50-year lows What about household wealth plunging household wealth, you know, that's made 70% of household Well is made up of stocks and housing Where's the Nasdaq today? Not everybody owns the S&P down Whatever 10 12 percent most people have aggressive stocks in their portfolio or taking the biggest technology stocks in their portfolio They're down a lot more than that. They're down 15 20 and some who are aggressive are down 30% plus Now you've seen home prices start to roll over Seen sales roll over knowing that mortgage rates are close to 6% again 6% That October what I locked in was 3.2% October November man, I get (8/28)

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lucky. Holy cow. Okay household wealth in plunging Look at earnings. Everybody's about earnings up 6% up 6% because energy was basically zero And I went to $130 Earnings are up 6% if you strip out energy one sector I'm not stripping out and make it look nice and then strip out food in it. I'm stripping out energy It's big because it's the one sector that Unfortunately as that rises is worse for the economy It's worse for consumers if you strip that out earnings fell 4% year over year. I'm not talking about that at all Well, there's earnings growth. These companies are meeting earnings And we stripped out energy when it was shit for the S&P 500 now But we're not stripping it out now when it helps the S&P 500 amazing But X energy earnings are down 4% year over year that's significant that's significant but most Importantly, I need you guys to pay attention here. I'm hoping I don't lose you because there's not a lot of people that talk about this the massive contraction in m2 Which by the (9/28)

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way was the biggest contributor to the Great Depression So if you're gonna m1 to total amount of cash current account balances m2 is everything in m1 But with savings account money market funds and other deposits included so basically the total money in circulation in our economy Now m2 is also known as the velocity of money to measurement of the rate at which money is exchanged in an economy The high money velocity is you associate with a healthy economy expanding economy So if you are a YouTube page, I want you to take a look at this chart Which is significant Because you're seeing and let me blow this up The absolute crash in M2 as you could see the last time it was at this level, which is 1.1. I'll cover that in a second Was back in the 1930s during the Great Depression Pretty crazy when you think about it, right? Why is nobody looking at this and paying attention? So the velocity of money was above 1.5 every year since the 1950s meaning the turnover of a dollar into the economy's (10/28)

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a dollar fifty as it filters through the economy Right. So the higher this number is over one the better means there's more transactions being made with goods and services Thus translates into a healthy and growing economy. Okay, this is a simple part of it. Okay. I don't want to get too complicated For example in mid 1990s velocity of money was over two. That's very very good Right, we had the tech boom everything going crazy from 2010 2019 it averaged around 1.6 almost 1.7. So solid number Today the velocity of money is at 1.1 again, the only time this figure is at this level Was a Great Depression. It's a clear sign Clear as clear like a car going a hundred miles an hour and it's about to hit you and you see it coming as clear as day That we're heading for a recession probably a decent one And maybe a lot of that is factored in with stocks down Companies about to lay off Some of that is factored in But now you have Powell Who wants to continue to raise rates and shrink its balance (11/28)

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sheet in the face of m2 collapsing Now if he's serious, which he may not be Fed speak is powerful just by talking the Fed can reduce inflation reduce demand can control the world Just by talking just saying what you're gonna do and that's fine. That's okay. I get it I'm hoping that's what it is but if he's serious which a lot of people believe right now and It continues to aggressively raise rates with housing already crashed the Nasdaq down 20% Again, 70% of household wealth is right there stocks and housing Look out So I have news for you if that crash comes and this happens and he follows through And it's gonna be 100% caused by the Fed who missed inflation missed everything over the past three years I don't want to pay attention Jackson All get the exact opposite if he did the exact opposite what he said the past three years Would be a much better footing a much better economy GDP would be healthy unemployment be okay Wouldn't be as bad if you're raising rates right away in 2021 (12/28)

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instead of continue to pour Trillions into this market just like what our government is doing right now continuing to spend money like crazy If this crash comes which would be 100% caused by the Fed You're not gonna be able to hide Because every single asset class is gonna get crushed. I'm talking about cryptos bonds I mean the amount of debt on the balance sheet of companies and our governments at all-time highs and we're aggressively raising rates still still And we're not seeing default as much we're not seeing Bankruptcies, that's what you're gonna see if you keep going you're gonna see and you're gonna see it a lot Forget about owning collectibles gold forget. I don't even know what the hell drives gold anymore. I have no idea I have no idea what drives gold. Talk to America do see yesterday. We were talking about he's like he was I Won't say depressed, but he's like you I just can't believe the assets that I own how great they are I'm not doing anything. Like why isn't gold going (13/28)

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higher? Like it just doesn't make sense I don't even know but forget about especially gold stocks. Maybe gold prices might hang in there Maybe they go a little bit higher but gold stocks forget it. They all freaking diluted through the ass Right. A lot of these guys don't make any money at all, right? Looking, you know mid tiers and large ones. Yeah, they're printing money, but nobody cares about those either the new months Kinrose nobody cares about those. This is a printed money printing goal it raising their dividends The earnings are strong. Nobody cares right there producing $900 with gold at 16 17 wherever nobody cares But the rest of the gold market no stocks forget about it. Holy cow. The only safe haven will be the dollar Will be the dollar which everyone says gonna crash because the government's bunch of idiots and they spend money. You're right they are idiots and they spend a ton of money, but Last month it was at a 14 year high yesterday hit a 20 year high yesterday, (14/28)

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right? What does that mean? People are nervous. Everybody goes at a dollar when they're nervous They Truly believe that Powell is serious. I'm hoping that he's not I'm hoping that he's not He's gonna keep raising rates based on lagging indicators By the way, the Fed has to stop looking at the CPI ads main indicator to judge inflation And this made sense for a long time. So you should revise this model I mean I covered it numerous numerous numerous times over the past 30 years to where this index rarely showed inflation Which allowed for easy monetary policy, even though we felt we all felt it we all felt inflation from 2010 to 2019 So I shift you should shout from the top of the roof So got inflation without inflation, but yet inflation if you look at CPI was under 2% why? Because they revise it to where there's almost impossible to show that inflation is going to surge That's why they strip out food and energy But now this method is coming back to bite you in the ass since 32% of the (15/28)

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CPI accounts for shelter Where most of this is rental income food accounts 15% energy accounts for 8% which again the Fed Government whatever you want to call it did a great job of spitting out The core of this well, well food and energy. We're fine, right? They they spit out for political purposes, obviously Just like suddenly we change a textbook definition of a recession overnight So a recession is no longer defined as two straight quarters in negative GDP. Look up the definition Look up the definition go into the dictionary google it and it's going to say recession Two straight quarters negative GDP. That's what it is, but we just change it. Why? Because we have very important midterm elections coming and there's no way the current administration could admit that we're in a recession Or it's gonna lose the house in a Senate, which is pretty much Foregone conclusion. I'm gonna lose it anyway Even if you bribe college kids by forgiving ten thousand dollars of their debt three months (16/28)

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ahead of elections By the way, if you really wanted help these kids, why not just have the institutions of the schools lower tuition rates We all know the answer to that. We all get it. We're not idiots It's politics. It's the way it is in five hundred billion to do this 480 billion was used to bail out the world and the banks to save our financial system from collapse ultimate collapse and In a second with a signature with a few people making a big deal about it not really 500 billion Man, I feel really bad for all the people who paid off their debt and the college students that paid off their debt because it sucks For you, doesn't it for doing the right thing? Do the wrong thing? With this administration, you're fine But to do this taxpayers are paying for this Just ahead of the election no coincidence there is crazy. Let's pay attention to politics And we're getting back to the rentals as a huge percentage of CPI the rentals Never saw massive increases. I went back and looked at (17/28)

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data not even pre-credit crisis. Yeah, they went higher but not like this Like we've seen the past few years when you go back 2015 rentals and rising over 4% annual. That's much higher historical rate 4% annually is a lot. It's a lot Right you talk about inflation if they supposed to be to plant 2% rentals were rising 4% but then 20 21 year over year they go up 15% and This year already up 8% You do the math you're up basically 50% in six years close to 25% in just two years And you know how much money that is? Not too hard to figure it out. I Just look for a rental apartment in Jacksonville at my wife since we're building a house that's 45 minutes away our kids go to school in Jacksonville now That's some really good schools We're driving back and forth issues and my wife's doing mostly driving back and forth She's in the car four hours a day for his day. It's insane. I'm not kidding I have over 60,000 miles on my car. It's less than a year old It's insane. I just the gas price is (18/28)

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everything even though they're a little bit lower now going back up, but it's insane So I said, you know what let's just rent whatever let's rent whatever this way you could be there for a couple days I'll come back and forth this way. It's not as crazy until we get the house, but which is gonna be November They say November. I'm pushing out to December. So I'm looking to rent for three months Hey September 15th, December 15th, because then we get the holidays well, so hopefully our house would be done January Can move in and it's not gonna be too crazy because the drive is absolutely killing my wife. It's killing us It's consuming our lives. It's a lot I know we have a nice light at the end of the tunnel with a house being built, but it's a lot right now So I started looking for apartments. I couldn't find anything on the $3,500 for two bedrooms in a decent area when you know, my wife won't get carjacked when she's taking the kids to school 3,500 and not even for things that are nice. (19/28)

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Everything was like 4,000 4,500 two-bedroom Jacksonville Jacksonville, that's about New York City. I Mean, it's insane My point is with the Fed looking at the CPI as their main gauge for inflation We're not gonna see a steep decline because you changed the method of how it's calculated by putting rental incomes in there or rentals in There because rentals usually don't skyrocket like that. You don't see Prices move significantly lower or higher, right? Not over a couple of year period not like this 25% to you don't see that rentals. We've never seen that in history this by this amount It's Why it counts such a high begin it's on purpose that they did this It's on purpose you want to have an index that doesn't really show we have your monetary policy It's good for politics, you know easy monetary policy keep rates low since 2010. I mean, this is this is the plan Even before it this was the plan now. It's blowing up in your face all the shit's blowing up in your face That's why any (20/28)

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textbook or anything that you read on economics throw in the garbage. It's useless. It's absolutely useless This is the stuff they're going by all these academics did they go this is what the economists are going by. Oh There's gonna be transitory inflation takes care of itself higher prices people gonna stop paying them and inflation goes down not when you keep Injecting trillions into the fucking system. It doesn't it doesn't work that way Because I could tell you an eight grader understood the fact that throwing trillions into the system was gonna result in high inflation no matter what and The smartest people in room got it really really wrong, which is okay We all get it wrong from time to time, but they are consistently getting it wrong. And now it's very scary to see what Powell is Because you are gonna overshoot by a mile You're already going down as one of the worst in history when it comes to Fed chairs with the inflation debacle. I Mean to say that inflation is going on the (21/28)

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2% and hits 8 9 percent. It is a joke, right? We're talking about that in a year. He was saying that in January still in November. He finally was like, oh, whoa Okay, we got a switch a little bit. He still didn't think was gonna continue to go this high So we're not gonna see a steep decline the CPI for some time Even though what most commodities significant lower you can say well not natural gas and oil that came down from 130 995 Whatever if you go lumber you look at copper And man corn you look at a lot of a lot of commodities down significantly the power prices are crashing companies to reduce inventory Can m2 lowest levels almost in history the only time is during a Great Depression You need to be cautious here Because there's one group one organization one institution that's the Fed that could destroy the world We're seeing it right now. They were wrong. You needed to raise rates. You did it by the fastest pace. We've almost ever seen history Where the recent race hike 75 base (22/28)

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point, which we haven't seen that before the previous one since 1994 It's not even being factored in and you're still going bolts to the wall here. So for me, I am well It was M. It's the bullish on many sectors in stock if the Fed stops raising rates soon So 50 base point hike September maybe one more 25 base point hike taking us at three point two five percent I'm okay with that and going to next year if you need to lower whatever I'm okay with that. That's okay There's a lot of stocks are trading at great valuations Still doing well seen earnings and sales grow insiders are buying they're buying back stock healthy balance sheets. I'm still seeing that But if you go anything more than that we'll continue to have this rhetoric of hey, we're gonna do whatever it takes We don't care who it destroys look out look out and We should get a good indication of a power series about raising rates continuously Or just talking shit to scare the markets will get a good indication on September 21st (23/28)

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That's the next Fed policy meeting where they'll raise by 50 basis points, which is clear So funny how people have 75 and 1% base points 75 1% just Run into cash fast you can if they go anywhere near that if they go like 75 and say we're still gonna get aggressive I mean, there's no need for that 50 proves your point But hopefully what I'm hoping for is power We'll look at the indicators the right indicators not the lagging indicators not focus so much as CPI which is rental income Which is gonna take a while to come down and it will but it takes a while It's Taking a while. I mean even me I don't want to pay those prices Maybe I might pay those prices, but a lot of people aren't And when they don't those prices have to come down in order to get those rentals. They're gonna have to come down People just don't have the money They had a lot of money when stock market was roaring where home prices or whatever and let me get a rental property and the second prep, whatever You don't have (24/28)

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that look at m2 the amount of money coming out of this system is insane It's insane the amount of money coming out of the system right now. It's working They don't have to do anything going forward and it's working You're gonna see inflation moderate could take a little bit longer than expected But you're gonna continue to see it moderate from here people have less money in their pockets than they did But guys see it September 21st. It's a very very big date. Probably one of most important dates in the past 10 years I'm hoping that Powell have more of an easing tone when he talks about policy for the rest of the into next year we'll see if Not look out because if he has the same exact rhetoric that he mentioned At Jackson Hole when he raises by 50 basis points and says it's still Pendleton metal We're gonna see stocks collapse and they're gonna fall very very hard from here. I'm hoping that doesn't happen They'll create a great buying opportunity probably six months from now But we (25/28)

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could see a 25% decline in stocks if he does that for one man and his policies who has been More wrong than almost any other Fed chairman and I'm even throwing Greenspan in there During a credit crisis. I had no clue was going on either But It's hard to know what's going on with all the banks lying to you and all the shit going on under the hood This is clear as day Okay, clear as day Eleven and a half trillion dollars injected into the freaking system and you're saying that inflation is transitory. Okay It's something that an eighth grader knows That we're gonna see massive inflation everybody listening to this who pays their bills knew that we're gonna see inflation Except for this guy except for this organization, which is insane Hopefully you don't follow through on this hopefully just Fed speak, let's see But September 21st gonna be a very very big date. It's gonna determine whether you go in a cash and I'm going to cash Or it's time to start getting aggressive because there are a (26/28)

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lot of great names out there But they're gonna get hit as well as almost every single asset class if we continue to raise rates past September Man, I hope I'm wrong on this. I really do. I Want you to make money on your stocks once you make money on your homes, I want you make money on your assets But the markets headed for a lot of trouble if Powell continues this rhetoric past September again We'll see don't want to end on a horrible note, but I have to because I tell how it is So I listen to this podcast no bullshit. Okay, I'd be bullish if I knew that they were gonna slow down There's evidence that they should be slowing down But he doesn't want to slow down he's not saying he's gonna slow down. So, let's see what happens over the next 30 days It's gonna definitely determine the asset allocation where putting our money in our newsletters in our portfolios And again, I'll be reporting to you guys every single day almost through this podcast I'll let you know exactly what I'm doing (27/28)

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how I know that I promise, but that doesn't leave marks at least on your face But I mean you know what happens Witness thing is kind of funny. What does he go to court? And you call that witness they're gonna say like yes, you're on a teacher beat the shit out of the kid They were screaming, but they didn't him in the face But they're going over like the back and forth of why this is good, and why they shouldn't happen, but kids today are probably like You know if you hit me I'm gonna tape it with my phone and go viral on social media they tape everything But then again you can't have your phones when you're in your classes you do it before and after but You know I have kids and cousins nieces nephews. You can't have your phone during class at all. They'll take it from you Right so I don't know how they're gonna do that, but back in the day when I went to school It was Catholic school. Let me tell you something the nuns beat the shit out of us and If you went on to complain to your (3/28)

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and trying to help you But just be careful time to be very very cautious right now based on what Powell is saying So questions and comments have a feeling gonna get a lot after this podcast We've heard even Frank curves research to come that strike at cursor research calm. It's always really appreciate all the support I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (28/28)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - How Microsoft's megadeal will launch it into the metaverse.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street, right to you on Main Street. How's it going out there? It's Wednesday, January 19th. You're listening to the Wall Street Unplugged podcast, normally hosted by Frank Curzio every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. As I mentioned yesterday, Frank is out of town conducting more boots on the ground research, meaning of the minds, pulling of the strings, making of the deals. So once again, I, hello and welcome, I'm Daniel Creech, Senior Research Analyst here at Curzio Research. I'm behind the mic today filling in for the one and only Mr. Frank. Markets are rebounding. I'm taping this early in the morning for production reasons to get out to you timely. After yesterday's intense sell-off, I'll say, indices were over 1%, pushing the NASDAQ down 10% or so below its closing high in November and the Russell down even worse (1/28)

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from, I believe it's the same time period, November down 14%. So a lot of volatility as the sloshing of money continues to find a home in our new environment as everybody anticipates, A, rising interest rates, which are rising, the 10-year is around 1.85, which is significantly higher over the last couple of months, starting to move up higher right now in anticipation of the Federal Reserve. How often it'll hike, by how many basis points it'll hike, mentioned a little bit of that yesterday. Also, yesterday I touched on this mega deal and the Wall Street Journal today has a good article, solid article, Microsoft Strikes Activision mega deal, and I'm going to go back and forth between the Wall Street Journal article and the press release from Microsoft itself. I'll tell you why I think this deal is important, why you should pay attention to it, and just in general some fun around it. I have to say, get this off my chest, I'm excited about this series and as I was reading this Wall Street (2/28)

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Journal story, I couldn't help but think about Billions, the hit show drama series, whatever you want to describe it, with, gosh, Paul Giamani is the AG Chuck Rhodes and Damian Lewis played the lead character Bobby Axelrod, the hedge fund guy, personal issues and stuff. They're going to be on the new series that starts on the 23rd. But reading through this deal, Frank jokes about, hey, Wall Street is so cutthroat, they'll steal everything from you when they know they can punish other people. Hedge funds, just like the GameStop short covering scenario where other hedge funds figured out that this one hedge fund was underwater or hurt and everybody jumped on board to just crush them. So Frank likes to joke about, they'll beat you up, they'll kick you when you're down, they'll take all the clothes off your back. It's just a ruthless game. I say that because Billions is just about to come out with this new series. It's a good drama. And real quick, if you're not into finance, I think you (3/28)

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would still appreciate the drama behind it and the storylines and the characters, but maybe not. Maybe, of course, I am biased because I enjoy what they're talking about and the environment that they play up. CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin is one of the creators of this. The reason I thought about that is a cutthroat. I talked about Microsoft and buying this deal. Real quick here, yesterday as the interest rate environment changes and Larry Fink, BlackRock investment manager CEO said yesterday, which I highlighted, investors need to lower expectations, expect lower returns going forward in the stock market because we've had a great environment of easy money policies, a lot of stimulus and markets returned great amounts well over their averages. So you can go way back and argue, well, the market averages give or take eight and a half to 10% a year since 1950, 1940, however you want to start that timeline, that's fine. But lately it's been significantly higher net. Last year, as I (4/28)

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pointed out a couple of weeks ago, 2021, the S&P went up about 27%. Still above average, so expectations going forward need to be mitigated according to Larry Fink. That's not that hard to believe given everything that is changing as interest rates go higher. Taking that into consideration as an investor, you want to think about owning and investing in businesses for the longer term or how they're going to not only perform, but prepare for future and or harder times. So if interest rates are going to go higher, that's obviously going to hurt some people and it's not going to hurt other sectors as much. When you think of tech selling off, yes, high growth, no earnings growth companies are volatile and can sell off as interest rates move higher because it's going to be harder for them to run the business and it's going to be harder to justify their sky high premiums when they don't actually make any money. And it's just because easy money and trying to gain market share is what's driving (5/28)

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their stock prices. Microsoft is a great example to examine about this because their CEO, Natalia Nadella has taken over and he's been there several years now and he's done a string of big deals. He's swung and missed at a few deals. Nothing works out as planned. Nothing is perfect. Nobody's perfect. But as an investor, if you're thinking about owning this business that has amazing products across Microsoft Office and Excel, to gaming with this Xbox, to cloud and Azure, to compete with Amazon Web Services, it is a high margin, sticky business with reoccurring revenue. The subscription model revenue that Frank talks about a lot. That's why you see a lot of companies going to it. Everybody from gaming to that's how you can buy an iPhone on a monthly payment. You upgrade to different things. Peloton, everybody and their brother wants subscription revenue because you can plan for it. You can gauge it for a lack of a better word. And you know that reoccurring revenue is coming up that can (6/28)

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help push your stock price up. So a couple of quick things here. Microsoft in their press release, which easily go to Microsoft.com, click on investor relations, press releases, news releases. It starts off and says, and this is in the first paragraph and why I want to point this out and why it should get your attention because it just shows you how big of an opportunity the metaverse is and will be over the next few years. This is just one example of the largest companies in the world getting their ducks in a row, getting their chess board ready, chess pieces ready to profit and gain market share. From the press release, with 3 billion people actively playing games today and fueled by a new generation steeped in the joys of interactive entertainment, gaming is now the largest and fastest growing form of entertainment. Microsoft announces that it's buying Activision Blizzard for $95 a share in an all cash transaction valued around, let's just round up to $70 billion. Even if you're not (7/28)

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a gamer, no doubt you know some of the biggest franchises that Activision Blizzard owns. And I'm talking about three right off, I mean, and there's a handful on the press release, but everybody's going to know Call of Duty, World of Warcraft and Candy Crush. Those are just incredible and they have a ton of subscription revenues. The relationship between product and customer is that of, and I'm not saying it's the Apple, but with Take-Two, Take-Two Interactive is another, as a competitor to Activision Blizzard, they have their big franchise, most well known as Grand Theft Auto. The relationship between them and their customers is just amazing and that's proof of the reoccurring revenue, the high margins, the continuing playing of the user base. So that's important. They are buying these huge franchises and they close out the first paragraph on Microsoft's press release saying this, this acquisition will accelerate the growth in Microsoft's gaming business across mobile, PC, console and (8/28)

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cloud and will provide building blocks for the metaverse. Aha, the metaverse. So this is in, so what have we seen right now with the metaverse? You got Facebook literally changing its name, investing in a lot of, so Facebook has the virtual reality, the goggles. Mark Zuckerberg has talked exclusively, or extensively, excuse me, about the metaverse and what he thinks that people will spend billions, if not hundreds of billions of dollars a day in transactions through different NFTs, through online gaming currencies. It will be some crypto. It'll be a combination of a lot of things, but these in-house purchasing, these in-play games is just a tremendous, tremendous opportunity. Frank and I have talked in the past how this play to play, pay to play gaming is taken off as well and that's more on the crypto side, but the metaverse is this combination of reality, augmented reality, artificial intelligence, this immersed feeling. So who can figure out how to do this? How do you feel immersed? (9/28)

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Like Frank says, well, you can go watch the Super Bowl on the sidelines without leaving the comfort of your home and it's going to actually feel like you're there as technology and things advance. Not everybody's going to do that, but everybody is positioning, everybody in the space on tech and things like that and social media are positioning for this opportunity, which is a great idea. As Frank's pointed out in the past, Facebook has about 3 billion users. If just 1% of that, what is that, 30 million or so, join or explore, participate in this metaverse, that creates a lot of opportunity for other items. You have developers, you have programmers, you have online, like I said, NFTs, non-fungible tokens, currencies, in-game purchases, all that kind of stuff. It's just absolutely incredible. Microsoft looks to be taking advantage, and brilliant of them, of Activision's recent pullback in the stock. So the Journal reports that last summer, since last summer, shares are down about 30%. (10/28)

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They were trading at around $100 between June and July of last summer. The deal was announced around $65. Obviously, they're paying a premium from where it's closing, but the $95 mark is still below where it was trading last summer. That's impressive. Why was the stock down? The Journal was investigating some office, well, alleging sexual harassment, gender pay disparity among the company's roughly 10,000 employees. The Journal even reports that following the Wall Street Journal investigation article in November about Activision's handling of workplace issues, this is past November, nearly a fifth of Activision's employees signed a petition calling for Mr. Kotick or Kotick, the CEO of Activision Blizzard, to resign. Now, Mr. Spencer, who is head of gaming on the Microsoft side as these guys merge, and it's basically, there's been some back and forth about if the CEO of Activision Blizzard will move on, he's going to stay on until the deal closes, which is supposed to be in 2023, and (11/28)

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then will he remain and report to Microsoft or will he retire? That's an easy layup fruit, in my opinion. He's going to be out of there because this is a great way. I mean, the irony here is this. Microsoft is taking great advantage of the stock being depressed. They're Activision Blizzard's under internal investigations for office environment, sexual harassment, gender pay discrepancies. Microsoft for its part is under internal investigations over its founder and ex-chair Bill Pool Party Gates and all the bad press he's pulling. They haven't been in the limelight of antitrust since they were broken up basically on the monopoly side back in, what was that, the 90s. There's been a riffraff in a kind of a rough two-edged sword between Gates and the SEC anyway since then, and no doubt when the government sues you, of course, you're going to have some bad taste in your mouth. But this is basically, if you want to be a fly on the wall, this is kind of saying, hey, we're having issues in (12/28)

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internal investigations. You're having internal investigations. Your stock is down, Activision Blizzard. Let's merge. That's going to be a conglomerate as we move forward to this wonderful metaverse. That's just entertaining to me on a macro level, and I wanted to pass that on. One more, a couple more points here. As an investor looking at this as a business, Nadella has a string of successful acquisitions. Recently in 2016, well, I guess that's moving right along now, six years ago, they bought professional social network LinkedIn for $26 billion. That's a ton till you write a check for more than double that at 70. Last year, Microsoft was in the second largest acquisition shelling out 16 billion artificial intelligence company Nuance Communications. That'll help accelerate growth in the healthcare market. It actually tried and failed to buy. If you remember during President Trump's tenure, TikTok was going to be forced to be sold if they wanted to remain in the US. Microsoft was in (13/28)

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line to buy that. That fell through. Nadella also engaged in to try to buy social networking company Pinterest and a chat startup Discord. That failed as well, but it did buy other gaming. It bought Doom for a lot of money. Was it 7 billion? Yeah, Doom. It bought Doom video game franchise for $7 billion. That's a blood and guts killing game that it's pretty gory, but it's amazing graphics. It was scary. I used to play that on PC with my late grandfather as I was growing up. As a young kid, it would scare the crap out of me. That actually brings back a fun memory. Nadella is a CEO that is an investor. If you've held the stock since his tenure, I don't even want to exaggerate what it's up, but in 2016, it was $55 to $60 a share. It closed at about $300 yesterday. That shows you what a great allocator of capital he is. He's buying LinkedIn. He's bought some major deals. He's focusing on high margin, sticky products, focusing on cloud, getting away from the hardware and just blowing it out (14/28)

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of the water. As an investor, yes, there's been all kinds of chaos and there still is a lot of negativity and reasons to be cautious, higher interest rates, all that kind of stuff, but Microsoft gives you a rock solid balance sheet, one of the best and well-known brands, great operating profits, great margins, great customer base, and great future growth. It still has ability to grow because of acquisitions, because of its size, because of its management team looking forward and investigating and planning for the future like this metaverse. The metaverse is, this is just one deal because a couple of weeks ago, and Curzio Research Advisors, advisory subscribers, excuse me, got an update on Take-Two Interactive video game publisher who bought Zynga mobile platform for over $12 billion. That's also a gateway in play into just gaming, mobile, and everything else. No doubt that'll play into the metaverse as well. Facebook has literally changed its name to meta platforms because they're (15/28)

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excited about it. Zuckerberg has talked about it. I hit on that earlier. As an investor, you want to have exposure to this. If you want to, go ahead and buy a Facebook, and I'm going to give this away. Be sure and go to CurzioResearch.com. Frank was at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas a couple of weeks ago, and he put together a great watch list. He's got seven stocks. Facebook is one of them. Don't hold that against him. Don't say, oh, that's too easy. That's too broad. If you think that, hopefully you own Facebook. Don't say that if you don't already have exposure and think, yeah, I know that. But there's a great list. Go there. Sign up. It's totally free. Check out that. Those are the companies that stood out to him. A couple of them are risky, which are going to excite you, I know, because that's just human nature and investing. Be sure and check out that Consumer Electronics Show special report watch list. Frank breaks down seven stocks and why they should be on the (16/28)

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watch list and why they could actually be in future recommendations for our Curzio Research Advisory subscribers. We got a lot of action going on with Microsoft. Google is in social media. They're going to be a big part of that. Know and pay attention to the metaverse. The Microsoft thing in closing, what do you take from investors today? Well, they're offering, here's some interesting figures to me. Would you buy Microsoft on this deal? Sure. As long as it's not a trade, I'm looking more long term. I'm not a good trader. I'll get to that in a minute on a different play. But if you had to ask me over the next couple of years, is it going to be volatile? Yeah, but I still like Microsoft here. It's a great company for the reasons I've already explained, and this is just going to continue to integrate and work with them. I'm fine with that. The deal is not expected to close until 2023, and that's just because of regulatory and then antitrust scrutiny is going to be expected. Microsoft and (17/28)

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other tech companies are already being pulled in front of different committees, government officials to talk about the power and basically if they're too powerful for social media and things like that, no doubt you've seen headlines about that. They're going to get into that right now. Interesting enough, Microsoft's buying them for $95 in share in all cash. They don't need debt. They don't need any banks to approve them. They're a conglomerate. They can do this no matter what. They're just writing a check. Activision is only trading for about $82.50, so that leaves some arbitrage there. This is going to trade higher and lower closer to that price of $95 around headlines, and do people think this is going to close? What's going to have to happen for this to actually get done? Is the government going to step in and not allow this? Then what do Activision do? Well, no doubt it's probably going to fall in the short term because none of the problems that have pushed the stock down (18/28)

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previously, the investigations from the SEC and or the internal allegations over sexual harassment have gone away. Excuse me. Nothing is fixed here. This is just a huge premium to where it was trading, but none of those deals are resolved yet, so that's going to be a continued risk. As a trader, I would look at that and it might be worth, hey, if you think this is going to follow through and this is going to be approved, well, then you know you're going to get $95 a share for it. If you can buy it here at $82 or $83, at least you have an opportunity to make maybe a quick buck depending on your timeline. Who knows when in 2023 and what will happen in between now and then. That stuck out to me yesterday because I really enjoy the bold move. It's one of the biggest deals. If not, I think it is the absolute biggest deal in tech, dwarfing others, and that's just incredible to see from an investor and a capitalist standpoint. Wow, that was more than half the show right there. But I did, I (19/28)

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hope that helps you think in terms of what's going on with these deals, why they're doing it, how I'm looking at it from an analyst perspective. I'm going to stay on one big macro thing here, and that's the price of oil. Because from the same Wall Street Journal today, on the front page, oil prices hit seven year high on worries about supply. That stuck out to me because typically with the coronavirus and the variants, Omnicron being the latest, everybody is worried about demand. Now in 2020, in March when everything hit and briefly after that when oil futures traded negative, that's because demand just fell off a cliff. Well, nobody's allowed to go anywhere during lockdown, so nobody needs all the oil that's already there, prices tumble. You have way too much supply, you have no demand, prices tumble. Now it's not like we burnt through all that oil, but now you're seeing demand start to pick back up. Also you have supply worries, why? Well, you have geopolitical concerns. That's okay, (20/28)

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you always have geopolitical concerns, but this fits into the theme of that forward looking or expectations that I talked about yesterday. What is the market expecting and what happens? If those are in line, then you have less volatility. If those are apart from one another, you're going to have a lot more. As I said, the Fed is expected to raise 25 basis points on their next interest rate. If they raise 50 or 75 basis points, that would be a shock and cause more volatility than less. That's the big takeaway there. What's going on? This is going to tie into something I'm going to talk more about tomorrow when it comes to China and geopolitics, but just quickly here. Crew prices rose to their highest level since 2014. China's oil crash and milestone in the rally that gathering momentum as geopolitical tensions threaten to knock supply. All right, well, what are they worried about? They're worried, pull up here, I'm going through my professional, you can hear that. They are worried about (21/28)

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Russia and I no doubt Russia is still in the headlines. They were in the headlines when Trump was president the entire time. Now they're back in the headlines going after Ukraine. White House spokesperson, spokes lady, I can't even say her name, warned that Russia could invade Ukraine at any moment. What would happen if that does? Well, the US is going to sanction them, i.e. currencies, dollars, oils, commodities, anything trading related. Let me find my place here. Manager crew producers, particularly Russia and United Arab Emirates, any outages are likely to goose prices as market demand rising and stockpiles have fallen below recent norms. The wave of the infection caused by Omnicron hasn't reduced demand as much as traders thought it might when the variant was identified in November. That's good news from a macro standpoint because it didn't pull a hiccup. It's also, if it's not going to hurt demand and you have supply issues, that's going to creep the prices higher and higher. And (22/28)

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according to OPEC, the wonderful nice way to say cartel, they forecast the world will consume 100, let's just round down, 100 million barrels a day this year. That is up 4.2 million barrels a day from 2021. The rise has been driven by increasing demand for light distillates and petrochemical industry, meaning where they break down, separate the oils and things like that and put them into damn near every product. So oil is going higher, inflation is going higher. Get this stat from AAA. The national average gasoline prices stand at about $3.31 a gallon according to AAA, up from $2.38 a year ago. That's 39%. Talk about inflation, forget the 7% year over year print that we've seen on headlines on consumer pricing and things like that. That's reality. That's a lot. That hits your pocket book every single time you fill up. All right, so what's going on over here? Well, remember, so we have headlines about Russia in possibly invading Ukraine or causing conflict there, then US sanctions to (23/28)

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follow. All that just means unknown chaos and or volatility of risk. That's a big deal. The Wall Street Journal also mentions some situations going on where Yemen and the Middle East, everybody always has issues there in around the world. So that's not outside of the norm. Also pushing up oil prices higher is a shortage of natural gas outside of the US. No doubt you've seen how Europe and things are being affected by astronomical high prices. And get this for oil. So a shortage of natural gas outside of the US has been boosted demand for fuel oil. An analyst at Goldman Sachs said this week that gas to oil switching at power stations in Europe and Asia raised oil demand by about a half a million barrels a day in December. They forecast a further 300,000 barrel increase each day in January and February, winter, and figure demand for crude will reach record highs this year and next. This year and next. Take away, it's not transitory either. It's going to be for the longer term. What can (24/28)

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you do as an investor to think about this? Expect oil prices and energy prices to go much higher. Demand isn't falling off. The omnicron variant wasn't bad. It didn't crush demand like the original COVID did. That's a good thing overall for economies and just staying open for everybody. But if you have supply issues and you have this paradigm shift, just like the Fed is shifting its stance on inflation and low interest rates and is beginning to raise, oil companies shifted from drilling, drill, baby, drill, drill, baby, drill for forget about profits. We just want to produce as much as possible to now managing books, managing balance sheets. They got a lot of pressure from environmental social governments, the ESG movement. They want to cut carbons. ExxonMobil was out in the news earlier this week talking about really reducing carbons basically to zero, I believe, by 2050 give or take. And ExxonMobil, big fan of mine. I was early. I recommended them in the Dollar Stock Club last, I (25/28)

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think, June right off the top of my head. I believe it's up 15-ish percent as of today, but it went down right away. So you could have hated me in the beginning. Now at least it's up making money. They just got upgraded from somebody this morning. I think they put a $90 price target, which is $20 higher than the current price now. But Frank and I have talked about being bullish for oil. Couple of our favorites have been Devon Energy, Continental Resources, Pioneer Natural Resources, ExxonMobil is the low hanging fruit there. That's just going to continue higher and higher. I say all that because if you believe in the thesis, as you should in my opinion, about higher inflation, higher commodity prices, don't let the price or the volatility shake you out. You could go to ExxonMobil, gain some exposure to this sector because even if oil goes down 5% over the next week or two, doesn't mean that any of the problems are fixed right now. That's just the price and the money moving around. Just (26/28)

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like Activision Blizzard, internal investigations, Microsoft investigations, internal investigations aren't going away. This deal didn't fix or do anything on that side. You could even argue if you want to be kind of a pessimist, well this is just a distraction or whatever. I'm just simply saying, pay attention to what's happening in front of you. Oil is going to continue higher or remain elevated because oil companies aren't drilling as much. They're managing more for cash, return to shareholders and profits versus just drilling. That's a paradigm shift. That's a big tailwind for higher prices or sustained higher prices than in the past. Just invest accordingly and pay attention to that. Don't be shaken out by some quick volatility. That's enough for one day. Interesting note, things are happening on the fly. I'm having some technical issues, so I apologize if I sound odd or anything else. Garrett, our wonderful sound guy in Baltimore, Baltimore is doing fantastic, helping me out on (27/28)

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the fly. Frank Curzio is texting me back and forth while he's boots on the ground research. We're having a lot of fun. It's kind of chaotic, but I say all that to say I will be with you tomorrow. I'll talk about gold, crypto and whatever else jumps at me. Oh, the China trade because I had a great feedback from a couple of weeks ago. We're going to touch all that and more. We'll see you tomorrow, folks. Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility. (28/28)

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This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - This company will reap the rewards from coming crypto regulation.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked

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Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main Hello and welcome to the Wall Street unplugged podcast on this Tuesday August 2nd 2022 I am your fill-in host your guest host behind the mic your transitory transitory Just like inflation host Daniel Creech analyst here at Curzio research. I am filling in for the one and only Frank Curzio Yes, I'm the one that gets to work alongside behind with and for the one and only Frank who is on his way back from vacation much-needed R&R With his family. Don't worry everybody. He will be back regular programming for Wall Street unplugged tomorrow on Wednesday and It's funny August 2nd We're if time feels like it's speeding up It actually is for the first time and we we say that all and and all of us are getting older Obviously and we a lot of people say well, you know, it seems like time goes faster as (1/29)

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you get older well, this is from the This reference is from them. Am I getting this right the mind unleash calm And this good title the earth just started spinning faster than ever before and scientists don't know why The earth recently completed a rotation faster than ever before at one spot five nine millisecond under 24 hours and the consequences of How we keep time and experts around the world are alarming or they have they have experts alarmed here And I want to have some fun with this because if you didn't have anything else to worry about You ought to worry about time speeding up And here's a quote from time and date website has warned quote a negative leap second would mean that our clocks Skip one second which could potentially create problems for IT systems The long and short of this is they don't know why this is happening. They're alarmed. They're freaking out. We should freak out It's probably related to global warming and our scheduling IT systems our time and dates Our (2/29)

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planners are all going to be off and here we us Individuals Constantly complain about springing forward and falling back an hour as nothing Don't worry about that start worrying about how we're spinning way too fast Things are getting out of control, but don't worry about that before all that happens in the in the world. We're gonna make some money shuffling investment dollars into the right sectors As as the economy deals with this recession oil prices Terrible wars over in Russia rumors of war all over the world But hey, you got to learn to take it with a smile and an adult beverage and that's why I'm here And that's why you're listening. I want to thank everybody last week from last week's emails I was able to fill in on Wednesdays and Thursdays Wall Street unplugged podcast for Frank as he left for vacation and again today and a lot of you several of you wrote in and Made comments about inflation and energy prices and things like that And I just really appreciate it send all your (3/29)

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feedback good or bad and comments and questions to Daniel at Curzio research com That's Daniel at Curzio research com one subscriber or listener chimed in and said hey you know you you were talking about the the saga and the drama going on between coinbase and the SEC and the Tit-for-tat and I was explaining how any bad news for coinbase any regulatory news from the SEC and other departments that come down For quote unquote digital securities if those are removed from certain platforms I don't see how that doesn't help overstock because of its t0 platform the same platform that our security token here at Curzio research trades on and I Didn't get to follow up with that on Thursday Like I had planned had some had some news happen and I wanted to talk about different things So my apologies, but thank you so much for for writing in and asking me about that on Decrypt which is a cryptocurrency website that I like and I checked nearly every day along with a handful of others This is from (4/29)

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today. So it's timely Binance us D list cryptocurrency. The SEC claimed is a security This goes hand in hand because what's in and please tune into last week's last Wednesday's Wall Street unplugged Podcast to get the full recap of it, but just to bring you up to date quickly I was explaining how if the SEC deems there's a there's a case going on insider trading and such where there's a handful of digital securities cryptos that the SEC is saying our Securities and they're on the they're on several platforms But they're on coin bases platform or a handful of them and if those get deemed and they have to be removed Why does that hurt because exchanges make money off fees and off listing so that's gonna hurt coin base Binance Now Binance by itself is the BNB token Binance is the largest Cryptocurrency exchange by volume around the world Binance us is a division a segment Piece under the umbrella of that. It's not the same Binance is worldwide in its Binance us because it has to follow (5/29)

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certain rules and regulations for here in the u.s. to be able to be Welcomed or even offered to US investors. I've used I use it I have a Binance us app on my phone where I have some Binance tokens or Digital securities whatever not as much as I'd like but I'm adding to them Anyway, I say all that because Binance us subsidiary announced that it will shutter trading for flexes AMP token after the US Security and Exchange Commission identified the asset as Security quote this is from Binance us in a blog post We operate in a rapidly involving industry and our listing and delisting process are designed to be responsive to market and regulatory developments The exchange said that is delisting AMP quote followed up out of an abundance of caution Taking this step now until more clarity exists around the classification of the token of the SEC's comments and such like that now the Commissioner reported That coinbase and this is touching back on the on the saga and the story leading up to this (6/29)

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that nine Cryptocurrencies were unregistered securities and of those nine about seven of them were on the coinbase platform now Binance us is saying Hey, we see the writing on the wall. We're gonna go ahead and back off this No doubt, they have greater flexibility because they have the big engine of Binance around the globe behind them and backing them However Coinbase doesn't have that luxury coinbase only operates here and is publicly traded Coinbase is denying the exchange has listed unregulated securities. So they're still fighting in this gladiator. They're still trying to win over the crowd They're in an environment. They're all they're ready for battle. They got their gear on they got their swords out or whatever But the chariots are circling obviously, I'm going back to the gladiator movie Coinbase for its sense says we are confident that our rigorous Diligence process a process that the SEC has already reviewed I touched on that last week I don't know how far that's gonna get (7/29)

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them But I like the fact they need to keep bringing that point up because it is a powerful point They keep saying hey, you've already looked at this and now you have a problem. You haven't said anything and be Beforehand that's not fair. Yeah, we don't know how fair is gonna work out But if I'm their PR guy or I'm I'm a consultant or a lawyer charging absorbent fees to them I would say hey, this sounds good the process the SEC has already reviewed keep going that So we are confident that our rigorous diligent process a process that the SEC is already reviewed keep securities off our Platform and we look forward to engaging with the SEC on the matter Now if I put on my consulting and lawyer hat, I don't like that last line We look forward to engaging with the SEC on the matter That means either arguing and puffing out your chest in a boardroom or for better or for worse going to court and having to fight The SEC in court good luck with that If and when more regulatory rules get (8/29)

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clarified become law Get signed into effect. However, you want to put that when this happens and it needs to happen it's going to happen because as Frank's talks about a lot markets hate uncertainty and The more uncertainty you have the more volatility you're gonna have crypto is already volatile by nature If and when these regulatory come out I said last week that it's going to be positive for overstock and what? what I want you guys to do is to start paying attention to overstock because they held a investor day and it was on May 10th, so a few months ago and What what's interesting is overstock is just the e-commerce online platform But they still have this ownership and the Medici or maybe however you say it portfolio that they had with the t0 platform That's one of several projects and as I explained they they put that over and created a limited partnership with pellion investments Or pellion partners and so they manage it all and on May 10th, and you can find this on the (9/29)

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overstock calm Investor relation so good cheat is go to a search engine type in any company name space I are that should take you the first few links should take you to the investor relation page Because some of them believe it or not and even though they shouldn't be are harder than others to find any information on companies On May 10th, and you can go to the overstock website and find the replay but May 10th. They did this investor day and pellion Host a webinar zoom type deal and they have different projects Spread out and presented so bit is a company that they're invested in and this is all under the overstock Medici Portfolio umbrella bit which does central bank digital securities and helps with those around the world That is going to happen. I I'll save my comments on that. They're not good. I think that To put it lightly a central bank digital currency is Just a bad of an idea as printing money endlessly and on paper. They're just going to do it more on keyboards, so I'll I'll (10/29)

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touch more on that in the future but From this standpoint this company could take off make a lot of money for t0 and everybody else message pay Which is what it sounds like is transferring payments getting involved in networks again. That's a global business Chainstone Labs is run by a Bruce Fenton interesting character if you follow him on Twitter or across the board huge into crypto has been for a while very smart guy believe he's still running for The run for so I think his Twitter handle has you run for Senate or something else in New Hampshire, but anyway, best of luck to him on that they go through a lot of the different investments and Following and help registering everything from they like to say they're at the intersection of where securities and Bitcoin meet Which is just exciting and then of course you have the flagship asset the big dog in the room the t0 platform and t0 is It's no doubt their biggest flagship asset because it's the it's the exchange to where you have so (11/29)

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much flexibility and optionality And what they did and on like I said May 10th was when they had this investor day just a couple months prior to that they made a new appointment and This is just from the business wire But t0 a leader in blockchain innovation innovation and liquidity for digital assets announced it This is back in February announced today It will point David Goon who currently is the chief strategy officer of international or intercontinental exchange Which is the ticker ice ice e which trades on the New York Stock Exchange to become t0s new chief executive officer Why is that a big deal? Well because David Goon has been with ice as it grew from smaller than what t0 is right now So let's just call it basically a startup company or a startup company with one product And it has grown to over even with the pullback in stocks with the overall market it's still a 50 plus billion dollar market cap and David Goon presents, and he's only a couple months into his role at this (12/29)

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time, so he's very gentle and vague, but it's a good He said a couple of things that really stood out to me which which led to me Which is why I'm thinking about this and another a lot of great people on Twitter and investment research have done good things on overstock and and stuff like that so no doubt It's just my own I didn't come to this just on my own just looking around But he said a few things that stood out to me which led to last week's story about coinbase and what what pain for them And negative news for them is good for overstock because he was talking about David Goon says hey, I Think that a lot of these digital securities that are being traded on exchanges are in fact securities They trade like securities people think of them as securities etc. He was talking about how regulation will come down at some point and To touch on this again remember what we're dealing with and who we're dealing with meaning Regulations and processes or laws and who we're dealing with the SEC (13/29)

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the commodities oversight's the government in general these things take time and What's really wild to me and interesting is if you go to overstock? Website and you get to the Investor relation page and watch that May 10th presentation. It's exciting stuff. There's some really cool things that are Unfolding and playing out and there's a lot of projects like t0 with David Goon about how the odds are in their favor for success however You look at present today The stock has gotten hammered why because these things take time not Dreams don't come true overnight They're they're processed they're gonna be ups and downs and to their credit Pelion when the main the head guy the general partner the Investment manager of Pelion is introducing the webinar and and presentations for the different groups He's honest about that and says listen These are gonna take years to build out Not all of them are gonna win all the projects we have are not going to continue to get funded depending on results (14/29)

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That's all positive and stuff you want to hear still painful when something you want to work out doesn't you don't make a lot of money But my point is is that? This was a good investor day. There's a lot of fun knowledge on touch on just a couple more things He said but yet the stock continued to drift lower and that's as an investor what you want to pay attention to and I don't Care if you're talking about energy or crypto or whatever When you're listening to management teams as long as they're not just lying through their teeth When they're telling you about the situation and environments they're in and what that looks like going forward is If that thesis doesn't change and you know those projects are still getting hammered out and still being built on and still getting Still making progress going forward yet the price has changed That's the time you want to buy so definitely keep overstock on a watch list on your shopping list on your radar However, you want to say that During David (15/29)

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goons presentation. He talked about how they have a global opportunity And you got to remember this guy works for one of the biggest most connected Institute or excuse me companies on Wall Street or he did and he was talking about hey when I was with ice It was smaller than t0 is or about the same size now and we grew that and he was talking about how fun it was to grow that and To build businesses and that's his passion all that kind of stuff. That's great for investors because you want a you want a motivated CEO you want somebody to go build something else you want something somebody that wants to leave their name or stamp on So that's good The biggest thing that stood out to me is what he said outside of what he believes is a lot of a lot of securities Digital securities are trading or in fact securities. He also said about NFTs non-fungible tokens That is probably the second biggest word next to non-fungible tokens are probably number two to the metaverse right now What is the (16/29)

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metaverse who's gonna be in the metaverse? How is it? I'm all excited about metaverse. I'm not dogging it. I'm simply saying those are the key buzzwords right now David goon mentioned that NFTs could be securities as well and That is a powerful statement because in addition to digital currencies think Cryptocurrencies being deemed as securities if a portion or certain NFTs are and they need to go somewhere to trade t0 is already licensed with FINRA and the SEC and who they need to be on certain situations and David goon goes into that on His presentation and they're already available or ready to start trading these securities Now I'm not saying that open sea or any other of your big non fungible token or NFT platforms are in trouble I'm not saying that all I haven't looked in to see what their licenses are I'm not aware of that My point is is that when you have a guy like David goon make a career decision to go from a huge conglomerate corporation that he helped build to a smaller one (17/29)

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to try to do it all over again because he sees a huge opportunity there and Then you pile on to that that cryptos might get deemed or you know regulation is coming down the pipe Odds are you're gonna have a lot of crypto currencies that are deemed as securities therefore They have to go somewhere else to trade and if this NFT thing has I haven't heard anybody else really talking about that and being Securities and where they go that's going to be interesting to follow and that's why I think Overstock is set up in a great risk reward, especially from current prices But again, I'm not I'm not a know-it-all and I've gotten burned on Overstock a couple times I wish I just would have bought it and forgot about it, but that's easier said than done But that's why I wanted to talk to you last week about that and I wanted to go over I just I ran out of time So I didn't have time to go over a lot of the the investor day from Medici and in the presentation from David Goon But if you if you have (18/29)

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time just go to their go to Overstock's investment Relation investor relations, excuse me webpage and watch that because it is insightful and maybe start scaling in to Overstock Topic number two beat that one to death topic number two, we're getting back to energy because a couple of the Emails and feedback I received one gentleman said hey, what are these oil and gas companies? You know, give me a handful or which ones are you talking about specifically? I'll get to that and another question mentioned You Know our government here is releasing oil from the strategic reserves and that was It's like a details aren't really that important. Obviously the government keeps oil for a oh crap Hift hit the fan family show and We're releasing those to increase supply Increase the supply if the demand doesn't continue to rise you're gonna have lower prices simple as that and you could argue that it's worked because the price of oil has come down forget why but that is one of the Data points that (19/29)

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you want to point to and say hey however You got to fill those Reserves back up for the next rainy day. So what happens to oil then in a perfect world? I don't know But if I shake the magic eight ball here in a perfect world The government wants the price of oil to crash and then it can boast and say look we did this great We released these barrels of oil it helped drive the price down now We're gonna buy it back and stockpile at lower prices and all is good The issue with that is if oil doesn't drop then you have a government that's going to buy and who knows exactly What price they fill these up at or got to the certain levels they were at but if oil remains elevated Above $70 a barrel where it was give or take year and less than that Going back Then it's a terrible decision because of the short term You may you could point to and say that it may have helped in some price relief However, over the long term if demand doesn't absolutely fall off a cliff and prices stay elevated you're (20/29)

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buying back Oil at a higher price and then by doing that and by by buying that you're adding to demand which unless supply really increases Which policies don't want to happen government policies around the world including ours Then you have increased demand without an increase of supply which means you're going to have a Higher price this shouldn't shock any regular listeners And if you're new to this program, listen, the government's are not the best businessmen, obviously They're they're pretty silly. In fact, and they very rarely are the smartest people in the room. That's my take on the Strategic reserves thing now, I want to talk about one more thing with the oil prices because ExxonMobil reported earnings on July 29th. That's a DSC pick. It's done well for us in the dollar stock club and the week before that the Wall Street Journal ran a good article about how refiners and oil refinery margins were at all-time highs and Because of the tight supply and all that kind of stuff and (21/29)

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you remember Joe Biden President Joe Biden going on TV and Twitter and everything else and he's saying oil prices need to come down so they're gonna do the strategic reserve release then he said gas stations need to lower the price of oil and oil refiners need to pick up the capacity meaning refine more oil stop gouging the US consumer and You typical talking points for that The Wall Street Journal was a week before this when they reported earnings and they were highlighting that hey, you know The refiners margins are a record high They're way higher than the historical norms and they pointed to you don't have a lot of refining capacity No new refining capacity has been built here in the US. I don't believe one has been built in well over 20 years I talked about the Chevron CEO comments saying there's never gonna be another refiner built in the US because of Politics and such of that nature and I'm not getting into politics I'm simply relaying the message so don't shoot the messenger (22/29)

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here If you're a greenie and you're all upset about this if you like paying five dollar a gallon great And if you want to be convinced that four dollar is better than five fantastic and you're happy with that I'm not I wanted to go back to two dollars or something. I Bring all that up because Exxon Mobil reported wonderful earnings Smashed him hit him out of the park as you can imagine and I'm gonna pull a there's a little bit of this transcript from the Q&A that I want to talk about so Darren woods is CEO and chairman of the board for Exxon Mobil and he took a question about refining outlook and the reason I'm bringing this up is Just like I said with overstock when you have a situation with oil and gas companies right now And the CEOs are telling you that this year or next year has strong momentum and the price pulls back let's say from now to the next couple of months and oil prices have pulled back recently as an investor If the price changes and the thesis doesn't change That's (23/29)

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when you want to look at either scaling in adding to or starting a position and that's what I hope you take away from this today So the question is in regards to hey, can you give us a little bit more? meat about your refining outlook and I know it's probably a volatile environment yada yada yada says, you know There's issues over in Asia with exports and refining and China and all that and Europe of course is in an energy mess So Darren woods says this hey sure, I'm happy to do that You you say it's a volatile time He says I think the thing that's really changed in the refining landscape Which is impacted and he says we're seeing impact across a lot of industries and a parts of business as the pandemic you go back He says since 2020 we've mentioned in our prepared presentation He says since the corona virus three million barrels a day of repi refining capacity has come out of the circuits since the pandemic meaning three million less Barrels a day is being refined today versus pre (24/29)

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corona virus Just think simple supply and demand now. I'm skipping ahead here He says so we've got this gap demand recovers and we don't have the capacity to meet that which has led to a record high Refining margins. So I think the solution here is with time additional cap capacity to come on Well, remember these aren't just flipping light switches to increase refinery productions He says but I would expect much lower than what we've experienced here in the second quarter going forward. He's talking about margins And he says but he finishes with this and this is what I want to hammer home And so I think this will be a few year price environment And and then we'll get back to what I think is more typical refining industry structure Now they're talking about ExxonMobil when I say they he says Remember three million barrels a day of refining capacity has come offline since the corona virus He says he doesn't see a whole lot of expansion in the US Now over the next two years probably a (25/29)

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million barrels a day of capacity that includes that million barrels includes 250,000 barrels Increase a day coming from Exxon site in the Gulf That's not going to start until the first quarter of 2023 So in next two years, you have a million barrels coming on a day 250 that is from one location from ExxonMobil However, that's still not even replacing the three million that's already lost you get my drift there just simple supply and demand Now in order for this not to be a windfall or at least a new normal of much higher Refining margins for oil companies. You need demand to fall off a cliff, but mr. Woods quotes And says hey, we're basically back at pre corona virus levels basically back to 2019 demand And he says you don't need any better demand to keep a tight market tight market meaning High margins refining capacity and tight supply and demand. That's a big deal you have one of the greatest most successful companies in the history and Management is telling you they expect strong (26/29)

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momentum for the next couple of years Because capacity is just not going to get replaced on just one business and that's the refining business Which I don't have to point out off the top of a mountain is an important business because it turns oil into fuel Okay, we need it people Outside ExxonMobil. So just to give you a couple to keep paying attention to I'm still a fan ExxonMobil I like Devon energy DVN. They just reported earnings recently. I thought that was good enough They bumped their dividend a little bit could have been a little bit more in my opinion because I'm greedy I like Viper energy venom. I know we got closed out of that in dollar stock Club So you can you can write me an email Daniel Kersey research calm and blame me if you lost on that But it is coming back So it's a bad trade But it was a good investment and I think you can look at some other refineries like Valero and Marathon petroleum just reported They beat on earnings and revenue today I'll have to go through (27/29)

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the conference called transcript and see about what they say about the outlook see if it matches. Mr Woods from ExxonMobil, but yes, I'm still bullish on that over the long term. Remember I'm not talking in terms of trading I'm talking about having exposure to a business to go through an economic cycle and compound your money at solid returns And as the world spins faster and faster out of control You need to make as much money before everything ends. Anyway, we'll light-hearted tongue-in-cheeked in there. All right, everybody We're gonna wrap it up today. Thank you so much again questions comments feedback good or bad. Just don't ignore me Daniel at Curzio research calm as Daniel at Curzio research calm and we can't wait for Frank to be back in the saddle again Just like Aerosmith screams tomorrow Cheers Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the (28/29)

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opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (29/29)

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