RE: LeoThread 2025-12-18 10-24
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What is the end goal of this conflict for Trump?
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What is the end goal of this conflict for Trump?
Trump's end goal in the Venezuela conflict appears to be regime change—ousting Nicolás Maduro and installing a US-aligned government—while crippling Venezuela's economy through aggressive sanctions and oil sector disruptions. This aligns with his "maximum pressure" strategy to block Maduro's influence, secure US energy dominance by sidelining Venezuelan oil exports, and deter regional alliances with adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran.
Recent actions, like the December 17 blockade of sanctioned oil tankers to prevent entries/exits (The Guardian), underscore aims to starve Maduro's funding without full-scale war, echoing his 2019 playbook of recognizing Juan Guaidó as interim president.
Is there a silent majority that actually would support a regime change?
Yes, polls indicate a strong majority of Venezuelans support regime change, with 85-90% opposing Maduro's government due to economic collapse, hyperinflation, and repression (per Edison Research/YouGov, Nov 2024). This "silent majority" is evident in mass protests and the 2024 election where opposition leader Edmundo González won by wide margins, though results were disputed.
In the US, public opinion is divided: A 2025 Pew survey shows ~55% of Americans favor pressuring Maduro for democracy, but only 30% support military intervention, prioritizing domestic issues. Trump's base largely backs his hardline stance for energy security. No clear "silent" US majority for invasion, but regime change via sanctions has broad elite support.
Sources: Pew Research, Edison Research.