RE: LeoThread 2026-05-22 11-06
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SpaceX is expected to IPO in 2026, and labeling the company overvalued based solely on current revenue misses basic finance principles
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SpaceX is targeting a $1.5–$1.75 trillion valuation on roughly $15–16 billion in revenue today (and reportedly about $8 billion in profit, largely from Starlink).
Critics point to public companies with similar market caps and much higher revenue to argue overvaluation
• SpaceX: $1.75T valuation on ~$15–16B revenue
• Saudi Aramco: $1.78T valuation on ~$450B revenue
• TSMC: $1.75T valuation on ~$120B revenue
• Meta: $1.45T valuation on ~$201B revenue
• Tesla: $1.4T valuation on ~$95B revenue
Each of those firms brings in far more revenue today—some 10x or 30x more—yet the market is valuing SpaceX alongside them
Valuation reflects expected future cash flows, not only this year’s sales. If an entity generates nothing today but is expected to become a multibillion-dollar business, its present valuation will reflect that future potential
SpaceX controls low-cost launch capability, Starlink aims for global connectivity, the company is already profitable, and Starship could enable entirely new commercial and societal opportunities in space
Assessing the company purely by current revenue with old-school rules misses how markets price potential.
If a firm effectively owns access to space, planetary expansion, and the innovations that follow, can it reasonably be valued the same as businesses confined to Earth?
Many investors plan to buy heavily at the IPO, and a $1.75 trillion price tag is considered by some to be a bargain